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November 2022


Stormlover74
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I know this if off topic for this forum but not much else going on in the near term so I'm posting totals from around Buffalo.

Best totals clearly south of the city.  Forecast max totals were realized but they were just further to the south and not in the city proper.   Such is the nature of LE bands.

 

SNOW TOTALS.jpg

MAP TOTALS.jpg

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7 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I know this if off topic for this forum but not much else going on in the near term so I'm posting totals from around Buffalo.

Best totals clearly south of the city.  Forecast max totals were realized but they were just further to the south and not in the city proper.   Such is the nature of LE bands.

 

SNOW TOTALS.jpg

MAP TOTALS.jpg

3 SW Natural Bridge is now at 70.9”

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22 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It’s amazing if you’re in the 15 mile swath where the band is, but outside of it meh. The northern half of Buffalo looks like it sees half or less what was forecast because the band orientation is a few miles further south than forecast, and the usual spots south of the city get the best snow. 

Looks like it might be a state record or even a national record for a 24 hour period?

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Monday morning will be the coldest of the month so far with first 20s even into NYC. Then the storm on Friday is being modeled as warmer now since the primary low will cut to our west. The blocking is forecast to be a little too weak for such an amplified system. Could be some heavy rains and 50mph + gusts with the secondary low crossing the area.

514B2149-D987-4C71-BD50-5B71FBB224B5.thumb.png.0e4580a607e765d3704006a21b5b13b1.png

47E4FE42-B500-4808-9CF6-BB7EBF7592AB.thumb.png.1ee2b36136754a52ed0eca282b525d89.png

BD058873-AB3B-4793-A6B7-21DECD6E4868.thumb.png.56b81dd5d6b740b9177df582d1ef3b45.png

 

This morning was our first freeze.... 31 degrees here (30.9)

 

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I believe the only lower reading was the -504  EPO around Christmas 1983.


91155561-6C70-4021-8578-BAC0AC146A6D.jpeg.8f54ef2c9c77caead82a8deb8cefc2f3.jpeg


 

86EC6BE4-DFFB-4EF7-A1B3-B8056B6F615E.jpeg.e435ec66ee823375eeda24b903d57ffc.jpeg

Another la nina winter and cold and dry from what I remember.  We had two moderate sized events back to back 5" and 4" if I remember correctly, both quick night time events and outside of that the winter was cold and dry until the usual big warm up in February.

Back in the 80s our Januarys were very cold and dry and we always had big warm ups right in time for February.

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16 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Does anyone know some 5”/hr or higher snowfall rates we’ve had in the region? maybe March 2018 #4, February 2013, and January 2011? Are there any others?

January 2016 beats them all, I'd rather have 2-3 inches per hour of snow for an entire day vs 5" an hour for an hour or two.

 

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14 hours ago, Cfa said:

A snow squall on 12/24/13 dropped roughly 5” in Central Suffolk in about 40 minutes, a rate of 6-7” per hour. Unfortunately this is somewhat unofficial since ISP only recorded 1.7”, I was northeast of there.

I’d never seen snow accumulate that rapidly.

Christmas Eve no less, I wonder if the city and western long island got anything

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Looks like some moderation in temperatures near the start of December. But the duration of any thaw is a bit uncertain. The ensembles keep some weak blocking going. The ridge moves into the East but then pulls back west a few days later. The Pacific side will probably be determined but the MJO. So we’ll have to see how that actually progresses.

 

E525AFA1-2A53-4505-A046-FDD0CFCC209D.thumb.png.c530fb9f104ab8563248f2e714c37352.png


48DAA6EC-2236-4587-8630-937D53A17CEC.thumb.png.0508f3c6e1f02211228feaf5f60ac32d.png

 

 

I'd lean towards the GEFS on the MJO...anytime the last few winters where its "outamplituding" the EPS it has tended to be right so I'd lean on at least a strong 7 if not going into 8

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40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Christmas Eve no less, I wonder if the city and western long island got anything

I’m in SW Suffolk, and it took me 30 minutes to drive 3 miles that night. Heaviest snow I’ve ever seen in my 54 years. 

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1 hour ago, MANDA said:

I know this if off topic for this forum but not much else going on in the near term so I'm posting totals from around Buffalo.

Best totals clearly south of the city.  Forecast max totals were realized but they were just further to the south and not in the city proper.   Such is the nature of LE bands.

 

SNOW TOTALS.jpg

MAP TOTALS.jpg

Ironically another band set up just N of the city proper now. Didn't see if it was the same band that moved N there but the city itself just can't seem to "win" here hah

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Some La nina + QBOW + MJO thoughts:

It's interesting this year. La nina plus a WQBO favors keeping the MJO from really reaching the Pacific.

Combined effect of the QBO and ENSO on the MJO

"During La Niña/QBO westerly years, the MJO over the Maritime Continent is suppressed because of the strong Maritime Continent diurnal cycle, and it is further suppressed over the western Pacific because of the lack of a reinforcement process."

But that's already occurred in the autumn. I'm thinking the Kelvin waves have contributed to this action. Since they've been active and these same factors don't apply to them in that way. Helping it along?

chi200_cfs_eqtr.thumb.png.aa202c01d9db22e03c4d7326ce555cc7.png

 

These are multivariate MJO obs from the JMA site. One based on OLR and one based on VP. 

20221119_090755.thumb.jpg.8c9446f2e8ade0ef708a08448fd44393.jpg

So let's say its possible we repeat something similar to that in December. We know there's a phase 7 - negative NAO connection. La nina and a westerly QBO gets interesting now. Because even though that would argue against it happening in the first place. When it does occur under those conditions there would theoretically be a stronger response. 

Modulation of the MJO-Related Teleconnections by the QBO

"During the westerly phase of QBO (WQBO), a stronger and longer lasting MJO‐NAO teleconnection is observed."

ENSO Modulation of MJO Teleconnections to the North Atlantic and Europe

"Conversely, the MJO to NAO− regime stratospheric teleconnection is enhanced during La Niña years and suppressed during El Niño."

So what ultimately happens? We'll have to wait and see but it's an interesting picture. 

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The next 8 days are averaging    42degs.(37/47) or -3.

Notice that now about 50%+ of the earth's surface  between 35N-55N is having BN 500mb heights..............but 16 days from now only 20% is BN.       I guess this means that the PV has done the Tighten Up.:

1668837600-WScE0k5Qvh8.png

Month to date is   55.2[+5.3].         Should be    50.1[+2.8] by the 27th.

Reached 44 here yesterday.        Saw large snowflakes late yesterday at 8:30pm with a T of 37.

Today:     39-42, wind w.-breezy, m. sunny, 30 tomorrow AM.

33*(60%RH) at 6am thru 8am.          34* at 10am.      36* at Noon.      39* at 2pm.      41* at 3:30pm.        39* at 10pm.

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1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

Ironically another band set up just N of the city proper now. Didn't see if it was the same band that moved N there but the city itself just can't seem to "win" here hah

I believe the city got 14 overnight and 3-4 in one hour

 

 

RERBUF

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
0933 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2022

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT BUFFALO NY...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 16.1 INCHES WAS SET AT BUFFALO NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 7.6 INCHES SET IN 2014.

$$

 

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The band is expected to drift south again later today so their snow isn’t done. It isn’t staying long since it will eventually die off as the wind becomes WNW but there could definitely be another 6” or so in the city. That would bring Buffalo up to 36-40” it looks like. So if that’s what a ‘miss’ counts for I’ll sign up in a second. The highest totals will probably be around 90” in the south suburbs. Unthinkable since NYC’s all time snowiest winter in 95-96 was 75”. 

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