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November 2022


Stormlover74
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Overnight parts of the Northeast saw some snow. Select seasonal snowfall amounts through November 16 4 pm include:

Albany: 1.5" (0.5" above normal)
Binghamton: 2.6" (0.8" below normal)
Caribou: 7.6" (1.9" above normal)
Buffalo: 0.3" (3.3" below normal) ***a significant lake effect snow event will occur through Saturday***
Burlington: 3.0" (0.8" above normal)
Scranton: 1.2" (0.8" below normal)

In the wake of the storm that brought some frozen precipitation to the distant New York City suburbs, the generally colder than normal weather will continue through at least early next week.

The season's coldest air so far could arrive during the weekend. Snow flurries or snow showers are possible during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +19.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.305 today.

On November 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.754 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.511 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.7° (1.7° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 46°

Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 53.5°; 15-Year: 53.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 54.4°; 15-Year: 54.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.3°; 15-Year: 55.4°

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The next 8 days are averaging   40degs.(35/45) or -5.

This is tail end snow from 0Z GFS.      It represents a part of the 2"-3" of rain falling as snow late in the event.     All snow gone on the 06Z, but rain stays.    EURO misses to the south.      Special Note......Research the PORTLAND BLIZZARD---Nov. 26-27, 1898---NYC seems to have gotten 19" during a 3 day period then.     Looks like it was a phase of moisture from the GoM and Polar Jet---like now?

1669550400-LVkBPjT2N7A.png

Month to date is   57.0[+6.8].         Should be   51.3[+2.8] by the 25th.

Reached 51 here yesterday.

Today:    42-47, wind w.-breezy, variable clouds, 36 tomorrow AM.

38*(66%RH) here at 6am.        41* at 10am.      43* at Noon.     Reached  45* at 3pm.         39* at 9pm.

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19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Interesting set up for next week. Something to watch if anything 

This is probably the biggest day 6-10 full EPS mean shift in one run in a long time. Much more Pacific blocking holds on after this record -EPO. So it’s not just one of these overamped OP runs with no ensemble support. 

0z

96B7DCC7-2BF9-4BD8-A138-C1C8FAAC3838.thumb.png.00b177fa84328f0ad68d194aaf752d18.png

12z

C9854665-1EFC-4324-9363-178AB0BB0274.thumb.png.ac0254a2a7d2f66c375e30ff90956809.png

 

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if only it was a month from now. either way, this is a pretty ideal setup as depicted on the EPS with an anomalous ridge out west, decaying blocking over Hudson Bay, and a deep 50/50 ULL near Nova Scotia. can't draw it up that much better than this

the west based -NAO and subsequent 50/50 help force strong HP over SE Canada. if the block is for real, which seems to be the case at this point, then we should see that HP trend stronger in that area as it's downstream of a ridge (promotes upper level convergence and surface divergence -> sinking motion) 

image.pngimage.png

don't be totally fooled by the time of year. although climo is relatively hostile in late November, this setup can provide ample cold air as shown by the the 00z ECMWF OP, and sun angle is low. there is certainly an elevated risk for winter weather even down to the Mid-Atlantic given all of these pieces in place

over the next few days, the most important features to watch will be the blocking and 50/50. if blocking trends stronger or the 50/50 trends farther west, we will see odds for a significant event increase, and vice versa

it's still around a week out, so much will change, but it's definitely encouraging to see legit -NAO blocking show up this early in the season

happy model watching!

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The strongest full Novembers for -EPO blocking at the 500 mb level were 2019, 2018, 2014, 2013, 1996, and 1978.


391FFCFC-86BB-4857-8147-FC7364037F9B.png.2a2c699b72a736ff0972e6dd60328a96.png

 

Thanks for this.

14/15, 13/14 (not sure about 78/79) turned out to be great winters. 

I am guessing it depends on what far east the EPO blocking sets up.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this.

14/15, 13/14 (not sure about 78/79) turned out to be great winters. 

I am guessing it depends on what far east the EPO blocking sets up.

 

 

December will probably come down to how the WP warm pool influences the MJO. The cold pattern coming up and record -EPO is a rough match for MJO 6 in November. We need the MJO to continue into 7 to maintain that -EPO into December. The EPS now gets us to phase 7 in early December. The duration of the -NAO this time of year is tricky since it can depend on wave breaks to keep it going. Those are outside the range of the longer range guidance. So we want to keep the Pacific as favorable as possible since it’s has such a big influence on our weather.

 

CFE784BA-2FE4-4EE8-8B8A-B201488BF85F.png.eae59066413bd6aade383c9e6301e729.png

0BA33EA5-2669-4AF2-BA3C-71900DA0DF7A.png.c092988e4dc9c0ddbc9313f11495bb2b.png

9519B6FE-C737-4A9D-92D8-7DB607D409A6.jpeg.73c96670bad4da42561c49cecedcea49.jpeg

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if only it was a month from now. either way, this is a pretty ideal setup as depicted on the EPS with an anomalous ridge out west, decaying blocking over Hudson Bay, and a deep 50/50 ULL near Nova Scotia. can't draw it up that much better than this

the west based -NAO and subsequent 50/50 help force strong HP over SE Canada. if the block is for real, which seems to be the case at this point, then we should see that HP trend stronger in that area as it's downstream of a ridge (promotes upper level convergence and surface divergence -> sinking motion) 

image.pngimage.png

don't be totally fooled by the time of year. although climo is relatively hostile in late November, this setup can provide ample cold air as shown by the the 00z ECMWF OP, and sun angle is low. there is certainly an elevated risk for winter weather even down to the Mid-Atlantic given all of these pieces in place

over the next few days, the most important features to watch will be the blocking and 50/50. if blocking trends stronger or the 50/50 trends farther west, we will see odds for a significant event increase, and vice versa

it's still around a week out, so much will change, but it's definitely encouraging to see legit -NAO blocking show up this early in the season

happy model watching!

Nice storm signal next week. Big change from 12z to 0z euro and eps run.  Nice blocking to the north on the eps. Still a while to go so like you said , happy tracking. 

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22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Great Buffalo cam if anyone wants to view it 

https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-mr-pizza

Looks like a sunny morning in progress.  According to the morning disco from Buffalo NWS with the approach of a shortwave this evening the flow will back around to the SW.  This will initiate the setup of the band that will impact Buffalo.  The snow is expected to begin around 8 PM there.

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Just now, Tatamy said:

Looks like a sunny morning in progress.  According to the morning disco from Buffalo NWS with the approach of a shortwave this evening the flow will back around to the SW.  This will initiate the setup of the band that will impact Buffalo.  The snow is expected to begin around 8 PM there.

Lake effect is great but I would be really pissed if I'm like 5 miles too far north or south of any band 

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