WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 What you are asking about is what I call "conversational snow." Flurries, off and on snow showers, sometimes accumulating but often not (or often accumulating a dusting which then blows away). I used to live in Blackburg, VA, west of I-81 in the mountains of Southwest Virginia, and we'd get that a high number of times every winter. Blacksburg is high (2100 feet) and while east of the Allegheny Front, it is nonetheless CLOSE to it, so lots of rogue upslope snow showers "run the gauntlet." This is one big thing I miss about Blacksburg - these conversational events lend themselves to a very wintry feel, even if they don't usually amount to much in terms of accumulation. But in the DC area, as you've noted, for the most part they just don't happen. I have found snow here is basically 100% storm driven and therefore very much all or nothing. You get a big winter storm, or you get nothing. The only time I've seen us get "snow showers" is on the tail end of a rainy lakes cutter or apps runner (e.g., "back side snow showers," which are also technically storm driven) or sometimes with a very strong arctic frontal passage or on the fringes of a clipper. These are all pretty rare events, and generally are the result of the main system missing us rather than us actually getting true "snow shower activity." It is one of the negatives of living here. That said, the dynamics that make summer rainshowers and "pop up" thunderstorms possible don't generally exist in winter, so MOST places in the US are in a similar situation. Outside of lake effect snow, or orographic enhancement seen in mountainous regions, almost nowhere gets snow absent a larger scale synoptic feature. I agree that it's one of the negatives of living here. I lived in Wise Co. at about 2500 feet elevation and I can remember every winter several days with what I would have to call snow squalls. One minute it might be partly cloudy, a little sun, the next, almost a whiteout, 10 min later, back to partly cloudy, and this could go on for a day or two. I guess it is all or nothing. Maybe something will come along soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I have one question for some of you northern Va, wva panhandle, central MD, veterans. I have only lived in NoVA for the past three years, and the one event I have never witnessed is a cloudy day with snow flurries and snow showers. There was an event here in Fred Co. around MLK day in 2009 where we got about 3 inches of snow but I don't know what that was as I was out of town. My question is.....is there any scenario where we can get snow showers? What experiences along those lines can anyone share? I find it more frustrating to have cold days and be about 50 airmiles from blizzard warnings that I do when storms miss us south or west. They occasionally happen. But usually it ends up being a dusting to an inch or two at the most. I don't know what the explanation is meteorologically, but we do get snow showers from events other than storms and clippers. But you are correct, it doesn't happen very often. Also, when it does happen it usually causes havoc on the roads, because it is totally unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 They occasionally happen. But usually it ends up being a dusting to an inch or two at the most. I don't know what the explanation is meteorologically, but we do get snow showers from events other than storms and clippers. But you are correct, it doesn't happen very often. Also, when it does happen it usually causes havoc on the roads, because it is totally unexpected. Usually we only get flurries or brief snow showers when some vort swings through in northwest flow and if there is no low to the south, we rarely get an accumulation. The reason is any westerly or northwesterly flow usually provides downsloping making it hard to get precipitation east of the mountains. Occasionally, a stay flurry will get to us if the trajectories from the Great Lakes is optimal but that's unusual. I thought we might see some yesterday but it was a no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The only time I've seen us get "snow showers" is on the tail end of a rainy lakes cutter or apps runner (e.g., "back side snow showers," which are also technically storm driven) or sometimes with a very strong arctic frontal passage or on the fringes of a clipper. In addition to those causes, we'll also occasionally see shower activity resulting from a long fetch off the lakes. I disagree that it's extremely rare. Most years, I'll see just as many, if not more, days with just snow flurries/showers than accumulating snow. Over the past 5 winters (excluding 08-09, which I can't find), I've had 38 days with snow/sleet with an inch or less of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Ok I will say it........ It's still early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Ok I will say it........ It's still early Agreed - this could track over Chicago and we would escape rain. Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I would say in the northern and western suburbs of Baltimore measurable snow squalls (quarter inch or more) occur 3 to 4 times per winter. They generally are less than an inch but I have seen up to 2.0 on occasion. There are many more days with just a wintry look with noticeable flurries that don't really accumulate, or just dust at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Agreed - this could track over Chicago and we would escape rain. Keep hope alive! I meant winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Don't look now, but the 18Z GFS gets snow into the western burbs... Furthest east yet of any op run in two days. Big difference is the NAO is forecasted to be stronger, compressing the PV in Canada, and thus shunting the energy further south. Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Don't look now, but the 18Z GFS gets snow into the western burbs... Furthest east yet of any op run in two days. Big difference is the NAO is forecasted to be stronger, compressing the PV in Canada, and thus shunting the energy further south. Keep hope alive! It sounds super cold in the later frames. What would -20 850's mean at the surface....mid teens? Eh not that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It sounds super cold in the later frames. What would -20 850's mean at the surface....mid teens? Eh not that cold Personally, I'm looking forward to 4 straight days of gusty, cold NW winds. Highs in the mid/upper 20's I'd guess with that 850 temp , but the temp would stay up at night with the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Don't look now, but the 18Z GFS gets snow into the western burbs... Furthest east yet of any op run in two days. Big difference is the NAO is forecasted to be stronger, compressing the PV in Canada, and thus shunting the energy further south. Keep hope alive! 18Z actually dumps on central PA hard. But you know its not good when 18z GFS has rain in the cities. Its usually the run showing the mega bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Well, I guess we can hope and pray for backlash snows Ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Also, no matter what the storm ends up doing here, it will track along or west of the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Hit a nice snow shower tonight at the intersection of 66 and 81. Hard burst of snow was nice to see. 25.2 degrees windchill 12 degrees frikin cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 My backyard low was 7.7 this morning with about half the yard with snow cover. Last time I was in the single digits was 2/1/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Lots of cold air coming after this storm, but not a great pattern for a snow storm here anytime soon. At this point, I've all but given up on seeing snow here before Christmas. Kind of a kick in the sack, but it is winter in DC after all - kind of used to it at this point. Hopefully, we see something good later in February (not counting on January to deliver at this point, but who knows - maybe we'll get lucky there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Dulles and BWI are at 20 degrees at 10 PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Dulles and BWI are at 20 degrees at 10 PM... Bitter out there. Frigid, chilly, cold, you name it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Most of the ponds near my house are frozen over already. Fairfax FD rescued a dog out of the water tonight in the Springfield area. It'll be interesting to see if they stay frozen over the weekend before the next Arctic air mass comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Bitter out there. Frigid, chilly, cold, you name it. And once again it'll warm up nicely just in time for rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Looks like 17 was the low back home....incoming fluffies?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 FWIW, 6z gfs bufkit gives IAD 3 inches (of snow) on the back end of the weekend system while 3z sref say very slight chance of less than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 And once again it'll warm up nicely just in time for rain although most may be concerned about any warm ups showing on the medium range computers, I'm looking forward to it this pattern has not and will not produce snow of any consequence for us we need a pattern reload/change and that won't come until after a warm up and the natural progression of the season until then, we're chasing our snow bunny tails looking for storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Snowing in the Shenandoah Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Roads, ground, everything coated instantly. Very pretty. Bad part is it makes you want more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Just pouring snow out here near Mannings, West Virginia. Wow - it sure was NOT forecast. Beautiful scene this morning! Moderate snow is just POURING! Everything is white!! WOW WOW WOW !!!! Just measured three quarters of an inch of snow on the road and grass!!! WOOOOOOOOOO--HOOOOOOOOO!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Looks like -sn at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Flurries on K Street. Pretty, but nothing that isn't going to be forgotten in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Flurries! Hey, its snow, I'll take any little bit I can get. Nice scene down here at 15th and L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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