LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 5 hours ago, lee59 said: Predicted low for my area tonight is 45, I am already below that. Looks like first 30s of the season. Might be the first frost out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 37 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Earliest first 30s of the season at Newark since 2003. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 04-01 (2017) 10-03 (2003) 160 Mean 04-21 10-21 182 2022 04-18 (2022) 36 10-09 (2022) - - 2021 04-22 (2021) 37 11-03 (2021) 39 194 2020 05-10 (2020) 35 10-18 (2020) 39 160 2019 04-29 (2019) 37 11-02 (2019) 36 186 2018 04-21 (2018) 37 10-19 (2018) 35 180 2017 04-01 (2017) 36 11-01 (2017) 39 213 2016 04-15 (2016) 39 10-26 (2016) 37 193 2015 04-25 (2015) 36 10-17 (2015) 39 174 2014 04-21 (2014) 37 10-20 (2014) 39 181 2013 04-21 (2013) 37 10-24 (2013) 39 185 2012 04-28 (2012) 38 10-13 (2012) 34 167 2011 04-22 (2011) 37 10-28 (2011) 36 188 2010 04-28 (2010) 38 10-30 (2010) 38 184 2009 04-17 (2009) 37 10-14 (2009) 38 179 2008 05-01 (2008) 37 10-19 (2008) 39 170 2007 04-21 (2007) 39 10-29 (2007) 39 190 2006 04-10 (2006) 39 10-13 (2006) 39 185 2005 05-03 (2005) 39 10-27 (2005) 38 176 2004 04-06 (2004) 31 10-18 (2004) 39 194 2003 04-18 (2003) 36 10-03 (2003) 39 167 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 35 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 39F ! in Hastings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 35 in Muttontown & 36 in Syosset this morning. Frosted roofs, car tops & some patchy frost on the lawns in Syosset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 62degs.(55/69) or +2. Reached 62 here yesterday. Today: 60-64, wind w-breezy, m. sunny. 1"-2" Rain on Thurs/Fri, then BN T's for a week? GFS Too Warm as usual? A whole week near 70! That is a +4 46*(72%RH) here at 7am. 48* at 8am. 50* at 9am. 55* at Noon. 57* at 2pm. Reached 65* at 5pm. 59* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 The low of 37° at Newark is just 2° from the record low of 35°. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-08DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/9 35 in 1988 36 in 2001 37 in 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 34 with widespread frost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 42 for the low here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: The low of 37° at Newark is just 2° from the record low of 35°. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-08DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/9 35 in 1988 36 in 2001 37 in 2022 Chris, do you have a list for the earliest 30s for the NYC airports and the park itself? Going back to the 70s and overall site records? I'm thinking it was back in 1976 and in late September? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 62° Philadelphia: 63° Tomorrow will turn milder. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 67.0°; 15-Year: 68.1° Newark: 30-Year: 68.6°; 15-Year: 70.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 68.6°; 15-Year: 70.9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Chris, do you have a list for the earliest 30s for the NYC airports and the park itself? Going back to the 70s and overall site records? I'm thinking it was back in 1976 and in late September? Bridgeport: September 21, 1956 Islip: September 10, 1975 New Haven: September 17, 1950 New York City-JFK: October 4, 1996 New York City-LGA: October 1, 1947 New York City-NYC: September 30, 1912 Newark: September 21, 1956 White Plains: September 20, 1979, 1993, and 2004 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Worthy of monitoring 10/13-19 for one or two large qpf events (1+). All ensemble systems above normal that time frame. GFS op may be leading the pack on potential for a narrow stripe of excessive (5+) in the northeast USA. I see this as some (minor) GMEX-Trop contribution for the first event this Thu-Fri. WPC experimental excessive as posted overnight has the excessive north of our area. I could see this down here in somewhere in our subforum. Frosty this morning in Wantage. low 31.5 on the 10' mast. (colder near grass level for sure). Colors out here beautiful reds on the maples...much brighter than recent years. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Bridgeport: September 21, 1956 Islip: September 10, 1975 New Haven: September 17, 1950 New York City-JFK: October 4, 1996 New York City-LGA: October 1, 1947 New York City-NYC: September 30, 1912 Newark: September 21, 1956 White Plains: September 20, 1979, 1993, and 2004 Thanks, Don. So it's really early October for our area....NYC on the last day of September 110 years ago also has to be the monthly low record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 33 for a low here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 34° Frozen Dew on Tops of Vehicles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Overnight low here an even 35. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Chris, do you have a list for the earliest 30s for the NYC airports and the park itself? Going back to the 70s and overall site records? I'm thinking it was back in 1976 and in late September? Our most impressive fall cold temperature records in recent years were the 3rd and 4th earliest 25° readings in 2019 and 2017. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1879 04-05 (1879) 25 11-04 (1879) 25 212 1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2019 03-08 (2019) 24 11-12 (2019) 25 248 1920 03-15 (1920) 23 11-13 (1920) 25 242 1986 03-22 (1986) 24 11-13 (1986) 24 235 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 34F this morning it looks like. Colors really popping, could turn out to be a stellar foliage season at this rate though it remains to be seen what happens next week. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 34F this morning it looks like. Colors really popping, could turn out to be a stellar foliage season at this rate though it remains to be seen what happens next week. It already pretty much is. I've never seen colors so early from morris up through rockland yesterday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 37 my low, nice recovery up to 54. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: Our most impressive fall cold temperature records in recent years were the 3rd and 4th earliest 25° readings in 2019 and 2017. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1879 04-05 (1879) 25 11-04 (1879) 25 212 1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2019 03-08 (2019) 24 11-12 (2019) 25 248 1920 03-15 (1920) 23 11-13 (1920) 25 242 1986 03-22 (1986) 24 11-13 (1986) 24 235 Wow I think one of those was also accompanied by NYC's earliest 6" snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: Our most impressive fall cold temperature records in recent years were the 3rd and 4th earliest 25° readings in 2019 and 2017. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1879 04-05 (1879) 25 11-04 (1879) 25 212 1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2019 03-08 (2019) 24 11-12 (2019) 25 248 1920 03-15 (1920) 23 11-13 (1920) 25 242 1986 03-22 (1986) 24 11-13 (1986) 24 235 Amazing how short the growing season was in 1976 (although we did go from 25 on 4/12 to a 90+ true heatwave a week later lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wow I think one of those was also accompanied by NYC's earliest 6" snowfall? 2018 was the earliest. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2018 03-21 (2018) 8.2 11-15 (2018) 6.4 238 1911 - - 12-04 (1911) 7.0 - 1957 02-01 (1957) 6.3 12-04 (1957) 7.5 305 1926 02-10 (1926) 10.4 12-05 (1926) 7.9 297 2002 - - 12-05 (2002) 6.0 - 2003 02-17 (2003) 16.3 12-05 (2003) 8.0 290 1960 03-03 (1960) 12.5 12-12 (1960) 11.6 283 1902 03-05 (1902) 6.5 12-13 (1902) 6.0 282 1917 04-09 (1917) 6.4 12-13 (1917) 8.0 247 1916 03-06 (1916) 7.6 12-15 (1916) 12.7 283 2020 - - 12-16 (2020) 6.5 - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: 2018 was the earliest. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2018 03-21 (2018) 8.2 11-15 (2018) 6.4 238 1911 - - 12-04 (1911) 7.0 - 1957 02-01 (1957) 6.3 12-04 (1957) 7.5 305 1926 02-10 (1926) 10.4 12-05 (1926) 7.9 297 2002 - - 12-05 (2002) 6.0 - 2003 02-17 (2003) 16.3 12-05 (2003) 8.0 290 1960 03-03 (1960) 12.5 12-12 (1960) 11.6 283 1902 03-05 (1902) 6.5 12-13 (1902) 6.0 282 1917 04-09 (1917) 6.4 12-13 (1917) 8.0 247 1916 03-06 (1916) 7.6 12-15 (1916) 12.7 283 2020 - - 12-16 (2020) 6.5 - So Nov 2017-18-19 all three had extremely anomalous early season arctic cold shots or heavy snow. That 238 day period without a 6" snowfall that year also looks like the shortest such period. I wonder if there was ever a reason uncovered as to why this happened during that 3 year stretch but not for a long time before or since? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: So Nov 2017-18-19 all three had extremely anomalous early season arctic cold shots or heavy snow. That 238 day period without a 6" snowfall that year also looks like the shortest such period. I wonder if there was ever a reason uncovered as to why this happened during that 3 year stretch but not for a long time before or since? Unusually strong blocking like the models are forecasting following the wave breaker cutter this week. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Unusually strong blocking like the models are forecasting following the wave breaker storm this week. We've been seeing this become more common in October and November, been awhile for October though (2011, 2012). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We've been seeing this become more common in October and November, been awhile for October though (2011, 2012). The blocking that produced the record low maxes this week was Pacific dominant. But the storm that cuts this week will cause a west based Atlantic block. So this more Nino-like October pattern continues as the North Pacific warm pool is overriding the La Niña signal. The La Niña SE Ridge /WAR has been the default pattern since the super El Niño. Cooler fall patterns have become non existent before November in recent years. November has been our only month with record cold for a while now. So this cooler October pattern would be our first since the Modoki El Niño in 2009 if it can hold. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Suddenly the AO/NAO are flipping neutral/negative where a few days ago it was still positive 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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