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Hurricane Ian


nwohweather
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2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Its continuing to trend to the northeast. I think landfall from Georgetown to Myrtle Beach is a good bet.

I'm even further northeast. Based on the continued movement of Ian east of the forecast track and the trend of models landfalling further and further NE, I think it will landfall in the Myrtle Beach to Wilmington area.

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2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I'm even further northeast. Based on the continued movement of Ian east of the forecast track and the trend of models landfalling further and further NE, I think it will landfall in the Myrtle Beach to Wilmington area.

Could be right. It went from 6 to 10 inches of rain here to maybe 2 inches. At this rate we may get nothing. Lots of cancelled events and festivals too. 

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GSP just updated the forecast..

The 11 am advisory from NHC has forced some changes and upgrades
to the forecast. The latest track takes the storm center over the
western Piedmont early Saturday morning as it is weakening from
a Tropical Storm to a Depression. The problem is the expanded
wind field as the storm interacts with a surface boundary and
the pressure gradient ahead of that boundary as it moves back
north. Indications are that during the daytime on Friday, stronger
wind gusts upwards of 45 to 55 mph may lift northward across the
I-77 corridor through the afternoon and evening...well ahead of
the center of circulation. After coordination with neighboring
offices, the decision was made to issue a Tropical Storm Warning
because the chances of getting Tropical Storm force wind gusts is
roughly 50 pct or higher along/east of a line from roughly Chester
to York, Lincolton, and Statesville. The strongest winds would be
Friday afternoon and evening. The areas west of the Tropical Storm
Warning will likely get an Advisory on the next issuance later this
afternoon. A Flood Watch will probably also be issued for part of
the fcst area with the heavier rain developing Friday morning.

 

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54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I'm even further northeast. Based on the continued movement of Ian east of the forecast track and the trend of models landfalling further and further NE, I think it will landfall in the Myrtle Beach to Wilmington area.

that would be a 170 mile miss by the Euro under 24 hours away.... bold call

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2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

that would be a 170 mile miss by the Euro under 24 hours away.... bold call

Longitudinally, it is only ~75 miles from the Euro. And the UKMET has done much better with Ian the last 5 days.

I'm favoring the 12Z UKMET track (just S of Myrtle Beach) over the 12Z Euro (just S of CHS) for the 2nd landfall. As of 2PM EDT, whereas the Euro had it at 29.1N, 80.0W, the  better performing (for Ian) UKMET had Ian at 28.9N, 80.0W, which is exactly where the NHC had it then. So, advantage goes to UKMET as of then.

 Looking ahead, both the 11 AM NHC and the 12Z Euro have Ian going no further west than 79.9W while still east of N FL. But the 12Z UKMET gets it further east to 79.4W. That will be a key. Will Ian while still east of N FL get close to the 79.4W of the UKMET or will it lag behind and be closer to the NHC/Euro longitudes of 79.9W?

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The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track.

 Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: 

 NHC actual locations:

 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W

  2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W

  5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W

  So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track.

 Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: 

 NHC actual locations:

 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W

  2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W

  5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W

  So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.

The NHC 8 PM location is 29.7N, 79.4W, which is right on the 12Z UKMET forecast for 8 PM and well east of the 12Z Euro forecast for 8 PM, which had it at 29.7N, 79.9W. The NHC 5 PM track didn't have it get to 79.4W for another 6 hours. Thus both the 5 PM NHC track and the 12Z Euro are too far west. Therefore, I'm sticking with the 12Z/18Z UKMET runs for a just SW of Myrtle Beach landfall rather than close to CHS.

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0Z UKMET is a little SW of the prior two runs with landfall near Georgetown instead of just SW of Myrtle Beach:

 HURRICANE IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N  79.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 30.09.2022    0  29.5N  79.5W      988            58
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   12  31.4N  79.2W      984            55
    0000UTC 01.10.2022   24  34.5N  79.4W      987            37
    1200UTC 01.10.2022   36  35.7N  80.4W     1002            25
    0000UTC 02.10.2022   48              CEASED TRACKING

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