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Hurricane Ian


nwohweather
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  • jburns pinned this topic
26 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Juicy next week or so thanks largely to Ian

received_943354916622557.jpeg

 This map shows 7-8" in the SAV-CHS corridor, which if actually occurred would obviously imply a serious flood risk especially due to much of that area having had well above normal rainfall July through early Sept. leading to high water tables. I experienced that bigtime. But one small saving grace if that were to occur is that there's been very little rain the past two weeks. Also, there's hope that enough low dewpoint air would interact to keep rainfall down from what this map shows.

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On 9/24/2022 at 9:31 AM, nwohweather said:

Figured I’d start a regional thread as it looks like significant impacts across the region. Verbatim serious rains for the Carolina’s/GA/TN with tropical storm strength into GA. 

 On the east coast, the biggest flooding risk from rainfall as of now (subject to change) appears to be from areas near Daytona Beach to Jacksonville to Brunswick based on extremely slow motion on many model runs. If it plays out like some models show, it could be pretty devastating for some low lying areas. This is shown well in the WPC map above that has ~10-12" there.

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18 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Been bone dry in Raleigh for weeks. We can soak it up.

 

1 hour ago, calculus1 said:

Same here in Hickory, NC. We got 0.62 inch of rainfall last night due to a rogue storm on the frontal passage, but that was the first measurable rainfall in weeks. We need the rain here.

Last measurable rain IMBY was Sept 12th. Only 1.52" for the month so far. Not bothering aerating the lawn, it's hard as a rock.

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  • jburns changed the title to Hurricane Ian

This reminds me of Charley (2004) in terms of quickly changing track shifting east (and therefore landfall south). I can remember talk about Tampa Bay being the landfall quite close to the final 12-18 hour tracking of Charley. Then it shifted to a landfall at Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda. 

A few days ago this was heading for Cedar Key if I recall, now it may not even make it to Sarasota before landfall. There are good things about this, a full storm surge and strongest cat-3 wind gusts in Tampa Bay would be a lot worse than a backside impact there. But all regions of west Florida need to be on high alert of course. 

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