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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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9 minutes ago, Chuck said:

My mom and dad moved there when my dad retired after 46 years with Sears, the last bunch being a regional manager. He did extensive interviews and research as to the safest place in Florida from hurricanes. Everyone said the Tampa area so he bought property and had a home built on the edge of Spring Hill. He chose Florida as being free from income taxes and plenty of good places to golf. Mom wasn't as happy moving from Pennsylvania and children and grandchildren. 

There isn’t a safer place in the world from tropical cyclones. Heck even Antarctica st this point. Whether you credit pirate graves or coral reefs, the Tampa area has a magical vortex that I don’t expect to be penetrated in my lifetime 

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Shear peaked this afternoon and should be starting to relax (though still around 30kt). Should be around 20-25 by morning. Shear and movement vectors starting to align better. Not surprising we're seeing starting to see some development. Faster development here would result in a left-of-track bias due to vortex tilt "dragging" the low level circulation with it.

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2 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

I was in Vero the night Jeanne came ashore after it had turned East then circled back west.  No doubt it was 8-9 hours of 75mph+ winds. Learned my lesson not to stay through any storm. 

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1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I’m skeptical, it would also be dealing with roaring sheer and dry air entrainment.

If it is captured by the trough (S. Florida and maybe a second hit OBX or Long Island) I'd think it'd avoid the dry air and be on the upper motion region (and enhanced outflow on the W side of the system) of the trough even before it starts becoming hybrid.  S Florida and then up the coast should not weaken other than land interaction, if my simple understanding is correct.

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2 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said:

I was in Vero the night Jeanne came ashore after it had turned East then circled back west.  No doubt it was 8-9 hours of 75mph+ winds. Learned my lesson not to stay through any storm. 

We've got shutters and a whole home generator -- and are a few miles inland in a post-Andrew code block house. We plan to stick around for anything less than a major or potential major (ie high end cat 2 just prior to last possible evac time). 

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35 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

We chose the Space Coast for the same reason. There's never been a major to make landfall here, and the last hurricane force winds occurred in 1979.

I lived there then. That was David and the eye went over Melbourne as it went right up the coast. Winds were about 80-90 mph.

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8 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

After clipping western Cuba:                         The HMON is farther west and weaker after visiting the Yucatan area.

 

Hate to be that guy, but the 18z has been out. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=98L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2022092218&fh=126 

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38 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I feel like these Tampa posts are just taunting mother nature.  :P

14 years ago, almost a week of no electricity took some of the shine off of hurricanes.  Big flood 5 years ago killed family members of a parishioner at my church.  Van swept away crossing Greens or Halls bayou  One survivor.  But TPA, because of the apparent forcefield, wishing harm on no one, but I am:weenie:-ing just a little.

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Ian

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