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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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4 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Good riddance to Ian.  One of the wildest storms I’ve ever tracked.   There are so many lessons to be learned from all agencies / weather enthusiasts from this storm.

one last note to add:  the comparison of charley and Ian is such a great case study of how size really really matters, and how two category 4 150 mph storms are not the same animal. 

Bolded made me chuckle on a late Friday. 

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1 hour ago, kgottwald said:

From the radar it looks like Savannah has escaped much impact. Good luck for them!

 Absolutely correct, thankfully! That was what the UKMET had been suggesting since the 12Z 9/26 run with no runs since then closer than Charleston for landfall even while the Euro and GFS continued to have landfalls in this area for several days afterward. 

 Our highest winds were only near 40 mph (in a couple of gusts) and we got only 0.75" of rain. There were virtually no power outages thank goodness. We got hit much harder by the precursor to Colin on July 1st, which gave us 4" of rain within 3 hours and some flooding. That center was much closer to us as it passed within only ~30 miles to the E and SE.

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I've watched numerous vids of the damage. My heart is torn to shreds. Poor people, homes are gone, they are homeless and refugees and their neighborhoods are no more. We need to send lots and lots of aid! Floridians need our help like never before!

 

I might go down there with a Jebman Shovel and try to dig sand off the Ft Myers roadways.

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25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Things have kind of died down here in Raleigh and looks like the edge is nearing. Overall, much more similar to a January nor’easter than a cane.

The gusts are definitely getting less frequent. More impressive than I expected that is for sure. Definitely scattered outages around here and limbs/branches down.

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2 hours ago, dan11295 said:

Fort Myers Beach Aerial Footage

Not a whole lot to say. Any buildings still standing close to the coast are likely built recently to current code both against wind and surge. The hotels probably fairly well although there are a few (like the one at the 8:30 mark) with major roof damage.

That's almost like what happened at Panama City Beach/Mexico Beach/Port St. Joe with Michael.  Michael was more intense (eventually confirmed as a Cat 5 at landfall) but in either case, anything not poured concrete as a structure, was just obliterated, whether from the surge and/or from the winds.

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Devastating.  I wanna know how you move 50 ton boats off land?   Cranes I suppose? But then where do they go? Do they make trucks big enough to haul them?  Is there also boat salvage/graveyards?
 

At work today I did get a work order for a JC Penney’s store in Fort Myers requesting an electrician to turn off the main switch gear. I was able to get in touch with someone to get it done.  I thought it would be days.   Floridians are good folks.  I could never live there though. It’s too humid and I love my four seasons here in SE PA.  
 

Best wishes going out to all here that are effected.  

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North Point, FL

Some drone video of an area not focused on much due to the much worse surge damage in places like Ft. Myers Beach. A couple of videos I have seen out of this area again show that well built homes under current FL building codes did VERY well, and this area I believe was in the NW eye wall for a significant period of time. Some manufactured homes they showed later in the video did not fare as well, but I don't know when they were built. A lot of freshwater flooding here as well.

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2 hours ago, Lady Di said:

Devastating.  I wanna know how you move 50 ton boats off land?   Cranes I suppose? But then where do they go? Do they make trucks big enough to haul them?  Is there also boat salvage/graveyards?
 

At work today I did get a work order for a JC Penney’s store in Fort Myers requesting an electrician to turn off the main switch gear. I was able to get in touch with someone to get it done.  I thought it would be days.   Floridians are good folks.  I could never live there though. It’s too humid and I love my four seasons here in SE PA.  
 

Best wishes going out to all here that are effected.  

Boats will be moved with barge cranes,but it will take time.   https://www.donjon.com/heavy.htm

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In recent years, the worst damage definitely seems to come from the storm surge more than the wind. Although location matters, too. I don't know how the building codes would fare in areas of Texas or the Carolinas from a 150 mph storm compared to Florida.
There's also the matter of how much expense the building codes add to the cost of a home, which is clearly an issue when you see how many people of fewer means are living in those developments that are just row upon row of manufactured houses. The fact that more homes on Sanibel withstood the surge (or at least their frames did) is as much a statement about the financial status of the owners as anything. The working class residents in SW FL are going to be the ones who really end up losing, because you can be sure that affordable little cottages and new manufactured home developments won't be high up on the rebuild priority.


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11 minutes ago, jacindc said:

There's also the matter of how much expense the building codes add to the cost of a home, which is clearly an issue when you see how many people of fewer means are living in those developments that are just row upon row of manufactured houses. The fact that more homes on Sanibel withstood the surge (or at least their frames did) is as much a statement about the financial status of the owners as anything. The working class residents in SW FL are going to be the ones who really end up losing, because you can be sure that affordable little cottages and new manufactured home developments won't be high up on the rebuild priority.

 

Yup, unfortunately it’ll be a haves/have not situation for those people. It’ll be interesting to see how the insurance industry there handles the avalanche of claims coming in when it’s already been in deep doo doo for some time. The lifeline for the less well off will be FEMA and what grants they can get in order to take care of the essentials and finding a suitable place to live in the meantime. FEMA I’m sure will have to set up camps to house people. But there’s no way Sanibel/Fort Myers can rebuild the way it was before and still be insured. The houses will have to be on stilts or the bottom 10 feet be a concrete garage, above that be any living area. Building codes for wind do bupkis for surge, and it’s only a matter of time before it happens again. Pretty much all of the homes that look OK from the outside there have enormous water damage and have to be gutted if not demolished. 

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I guess the word on the street among the people I know who don't track hurricanes that they "heard" the NHC wouldn't call Hurricane Ian a Category 5 for "insurance purposes".

I actually don't think Ian ever achieved Category 5, despite what many have stated on twitter. Michael was a different story, getting to 919 mb on the North Gulf Coast in mid-October, blowing trains off their tracks, and insane sustained winds. Ian was a high-end Cat 4 no doubt, but the NHC would have upgraded had the information indicated a Cat 5. It didn't.

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18 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I guess the word on the street among the people I know who don't track hurricanes that they "heard" the NHC wouldn't call Hurricane Ian a Category 5 for "insurance purposes".

I actually don't think Ian ever achieved Category 5, despite what many have stated on twitter. Michael was a different story, getting to 919 mb on the North Gulf Coast in mid-October, blowing trains off their tracks, and insane sustained winds. Ian was a high-end Cat 4 no doubt, but the NHC would have upgraded had the information indicated a Cat 5. It didn't.

Michael didn’t achieve Cat 5 until the review process and the TCR was composed. Andrew didn’t achieve Cat 5 until the reanalysis in 2004. When these storms landfall there’s a whole set of data they have that we don’t have access to that they flag for review purposes. We see only what they want us to see if the recon data. So in saying that, we will wait and see what their review shows of Ian. Keep in mind damage might not look that bad and understand a lot of that area was rebuilt after Charley. Michael rolled through an area that had poor building codes. 

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8 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Michael didn’t achieve Cat 5 until the review process and the TCR was composed. Andrew didn’t achieve Cat 5 until the reanalysis in 2004. When these storms landfall there’s a whole set of data they have that we don’t have access to that they flag for review purposes. We see only what they want us to see if the recon data. So in saying that, we will wait and see what their review shows of Ian. Keep in mind damage might not look that bad and understand a lot of that area was rebuilt after Charley. Michael rolled through an area that had poor building codes. 

I think the only future U.S. Category 5 landfall that isn't a posthumous upgrade would have to be something long-tracked and constant Category 5 (like if Irma had never gone to Cuba and had struck the Keys as a consistent Category 5) or if the pressure wound up so low (something like 912 mb) with corresponding winds to where it would be painfully obvious the storm was landfalling as a Cat 5.

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35 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I think the only future U.S. Category 5 landfall that isn't a posthumous upgrade would have to be something long-tracked and constant Category 5 (like if Irma had never gone to Cuba and had struck the Keys as a consistent Category 5) or if the pressure wound up so low (something like 912 mb) with corresponding winds to where it would be painfully obvious the storm was landfalling as a Cat 5.

The downside to using pressure is Sandy and Fiona type events. They had pressure of Cat 4’s but struck at much lower intensity concerning winds. I do like where this conservation is going because it’s obvious the Safir Simpson scale is outdated. It doesn’t do a good job with these Sandy, Fiona, Ike, Katrina, Ian type storms.

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1 hour ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The downside to using pressure is Sandy and Fiona type events. They had pressure of Cat 4’s but struck at much lower intensity concerning winds. I do like where this conservation is going because it’s obvious the Safir Simpson scale is outdated. It doesn’t do a good job with these Sandy, Fiona, Ike, Katrina, Ian type storms.

What about the "Hurricane Severity Index" thing from a few years back?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Severity_Index

I actually think Hurricane Ian may have ranked rather high on that one, because it takes into account size and strength. 

 

You may be interested in this study from 2008 about "return periods" for hurricanes. Basically, it takes factors into account based on wind and pressure at how often a hurricane of similar wind or pressure should hit an area.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/21/2/2007jcli1772.1.xml#i1520-0442-21-2-403-t03

Snapshot-221001035838.png

For example, as you can see, a "Charley" type storm should hit the United States every 13.7 years. We should see another Camille storm by 2032, which would be the next ten hurricane seasons. They note the rarity of the 1935 Labor Day storm. 

One that seems overdue by all standards and accounts is Hurricane Hugo. I also think Georgia's major landfalls of over 100 years ago make that coastline overdue.

Snapshot-221001035943.png

Picture a tiny pinhole eye over Padre Island, TX or Key Largo, FL with a sub-900 mb pressure. That'll probably be the next '35 Labor Day-type storm. 

 

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24 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

What about the "Hurricane Severity Index" thing from a few years back?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Severity_Index

I actually think Hurricane Ian may have ranked rather high on that one, because it takes into account size and strength. 

 

You may be interested in this study from 2008 about "return periods" for hurricanes. Basically, it takes factors into account based on wind and pressure at how often a hurricane of similar wind or pressure should hit an area.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/21/2/2007jcli1772.1.xml#i1520-0442-21-2-403-t03

Snapshot-221001035838.png

For example, as you can see, a "Charley" type storm should hit the United States every 13.7 years. We should see another Camille storm by 2032, which would be the next ten hurricane seasons. They note the rarity of the 1935 Labor Day storm. 

One that seems overdue by all standards and accounts is Hurricane Hugo. I also think Georgia's major landfalls of over 100 years ago make that coastline overdue.

Snapshot-221001035943.png

Picture a tiny pinhole eye over Padre Island, TX or Key Largo, FL with a sub-900 mb pressure. That'll probably be the next '35 Labor Day-type storm. 

 

I will have to read up on the severity index. The return period study is also interesting so I’ll have to delve into that more. Now concerning the GA/SC coastline, yeah they are overdue and been overdue for a long time. Let’s not forget how close they came with Florence, when in the early stages of that storm the Euro was showing a Savannah, GA landfall as a Cat 4. Than it shifted to a SC landfall before eventually locking on a Wilmington, NC landfall. Not just GA/SC but NC is overdue as well.

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2 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

The downside to using pressure is Sandy and Fiona type events. They had pressure of Cat 4’s but struck at much lower intensity concerning winds. I do like where this conservation is going because it’s obvious the Safir Simpson scale is outdated. It doesn’t do a good job with these Sandy, Fiona, Ike, Katrina, Ian type storms.

Why don't we adopt a more West Pac type scale?  They get the worst TC on the planet and I like their scale better.  Instead of Cat 5, they should be called "Super Hurricanes" when they hit 150 mph.  And the scale should be ordered by 5 mph (or 10 mph) which is how the numbers are reported instead of some random number like 74, 111 or 157.  Minimum hurricane should be 75 mph (or 70 mph) and the highest category should be double that or 150 mph "super hurricane".  Switch TS to 40 mph.  It makes a lot of sense and is far easier to remember.

Tropical Storm ..... 40 mph

Minimum Hurricane ..... 75 mph (or 70 mph)

Moderate Hurricane ..... 100 mph

Major Hurricane ...... 110 mph

Catastrophic Hurricane ..... 130 mph

Super Hurricane ..... 150 mph

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Why don't we adopt a more West Pac type scale?  They get the worst TC on the planet and I like their scale better.  Instead of Cat 5, they should be called "Super Hurricanes" when they hit 150 mph.  And the scale should be ordered by 5 mph (or 10 mph) which is how the numbers are reported instead of some random number like 74, 111 or 157.  Minimum hurricane should be 75 mph and the highest category should be double that or 150 mph "super hurricane".  It makes a lot of sense and is far easier to remember.

Minimum hurricane ..... 75 mph (or 70 mph)

Moderate hurricane ..... 100 mph

Major hurricane ...... 110 mph

Catastrophic hurricane ..... 130 mph

Super hurricane ..... 150 mph

 

I do like that scale they have and adopting a similar scale might help the general public understand hurricanes better. However, the scale still focuses on winds. This still doesn’t solve the issue with Sandy, Fiona, Ike. Sandy and Fiona were both hybrids. Fiona struck Nova Scotia with 931mb of pressure but winds were only 100 mph (Cat 2) and Sandy struck the northeast with 940mb but only had 80mph winds (Cat 1). We need a scale that also handles these hybrid hurricane situations properly…..and storms like Ike that were a Cat 2 but generated Cat 4/Cat 5 surge at landfall.

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46 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

I do like that scale they have and adopting a similar scale might help the general public understand hurricanes better. However, the scale still focuses on winds. This still doesn’t solve the issue with Sandy, Fiona, Ike. Sandy and Fiona were both hybrids. Fiona struck Nova Scotia with 931mb of pressure but winds were only 100 mph (Cat 2) and Sandy struck the northeast with 940mb but only had 80mph winds (Cat 1). We need a scale that also handles these hybrid hurricane situations properly…..and storms like Ike that were a Cat 2 but generated Cat 4/Cat 5 surge at landfall.

That's a good point, so a scale that incorporates both the size of the storm and the wind (so a total energy output scale) should be used.  The only question would be, should there be a separate surge scale, or should we incorporate both surge and wind features into one universal scale?

 

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2 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

I do like that scale they have and adopting a similar scale might help the general public understand hurricanes better. However, the scale still focuses on winds. This still doesn’t solve the issue with Sandy, Fiona, Ike. Sandy and Fiona were both hybrids. Fiona struck Nova Scotia with 931mb of pressure but winds were only 100 mph (Cat 2) and Sandy struck the northeast with 940mb but only had 80mph winds (Cat 1). We need a scale that also handles these hybrid hurricane situations properly…..and storms like Ike that were a Cat 2 but generated Cat 4/Cat 5 surge at landfall.

Use IKE. Integrated kinetic energy.

 


 

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