StantonParkHoya Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I mean he’s right, these air masses are more akin to mid/late October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 The fact that people still take ldub's bait is more amusing than ldub himself 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 The Hype is On! I watched TV with my wife on three or four locals channels and the Weather Channel for a half hour or so. Granted, it has been a slow season so far and $$$ mets need to earn their pay, so the Hype is in full speed ahead! All channels were talking about 10 to 18 feet storms surges in Tampa Bay or Ft. Myers. I told my wife by this time tomorrow they will be saying 20 to 30 feet in Tampa Bay. They'll have graphics of downtown Tampa filling up, then going down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: The GFS forecast will be about as right as you've been for this season. Then the GFS will be spot on perfect. I was hoping it went up the east coast as a strong extratropical low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Some gefs members break off and go the way of the euro/eps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I mean he’s right, these air masses are more akin to mid/late October That won’t always mean weakening or sure however. I the last 5 or so years these systems approaching the northern Gulf have had a tendency to not weaken as frequently as they used to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, hlcater said: The fact that people still take ldub's bait is more amusing than ldub himself Almost like if you don't take the bait the bait disappears! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 18z HWRF goes a degree and a half of latitude south vs 12z run at just 57 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I’m right at the center of the cone here in Tampa. The one positive is that 5 days out, the likelihood of that trajectory staying unchanged is next to nil. Still concerning as I am in no position right now to board up anything as I was released from hospital just last week. Also the cost of plywood makes covering windows a rich man’s game. $780 is the quote I just got using OsB. anyhow to make this relevant. We will be getting an intermediate advisory on #TD9 at 8 PM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Almost like if you don't take the bait the bait disappears! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hotair said: I’m right at the center of the cone here in Tampa. The one positive is that 5 days out, the likelihood of that trajectory staying unchanged is next to nil. Still concerning as I am in no position right now to board up anything as I was released from hospital just last week. Also the cost of plywood makes covering windows a rich man’s game. $780 is the quote I just got using OsB. anyhow to make this relevant. We will be getting an intermediate advisory on #TD9 at 8 PM We are paying $200 a month for storage mostly for a lot of plywood left over from Irma. I didn't want to leave it in our storage shed as by now it would be a termite ant infested creepy mess. We do have a hundred dollars worth of junk in the storage as well we don't want to throw away, but at about $12,000 over 5 years I think tossing the plywood in the trash after Irma would have been a great investment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, Prospero said: at about $12,000 over 5 years I think tossing the plywood in the trash after Irma would have been a great investment. That's probably almost enough for permanent shutters! Just now, Hotair said: The storage racket here is insane as no homes have basements and few have useable attics This was the biggest shock when we moved from PA. So much stuff and no place to put it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Prospero said: We are paying $200 a month for storage mostly for a lot of plywood left over from Irma. I didn't want to leave it in our storage shed as by now it would be a termite ant infested creepy mess. We do have a hundred dollars worth of junk in the storage as well we don't want to throw away, but at about $12,000 over 5 years I think tossing the plywood in the trash after Irma would have been a great investment. I hear you. I threw away my Irma (I’m pretty sure it was Irma) plywood to make room for another car in the garage. Same concerns. The storage racket here is insane as no homes have basements and few have useable attics @NWSTampaBay now says 83mph winds w/ gusts of 103mph Wends afternoon in Sarasota. Yikes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 000 WTNT34 KNHC 232345 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 71.5W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 71.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue through Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday night and early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Saturday. More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the following rainfall: Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maximum up to 6 inches Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up to 12 inches Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14 inches. Heavy rains may begin to affect South Florida on Monday. Limited flash and urban flood impacts may be possible with this rainfall. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hotair said: The storage racket here is insane as no homes have basements and few have useable attics If the next storm to hit Tampa Bay was like Andrew, the new massive storage buildings will be standing while everything else is wiped clean. Billing would not stop for units, and the next wave of construction would be mostly new Storage buildings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Looks like nhc moved cone south it had Tampa in its cross hairs now it’s Sarasota for the 8pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, eyes2theskies said: Looks like nhc moved cone south it had Tampa in its cross hairs now it’s Sarasota for the 8pm update the cone doesn't get update during the intermediate advisories. just the full ones at 5 and 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 The 18z Euro is nearly identical to the 12z... just a hair east and weaker... tracks directly over Grand Cayman. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Just now, Hotair said: 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 18z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Hotair said: 18z So essentially the gefs mean matches that of the eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 27 minutes ago, Prospero said: If the next storm to hit Tampa Bay was like Andrew, the new massive storage buildings will be standing while everything else is wiped clean. Billing would not stop for units, and the next wave of construction would be mostly new Storage buildings. And don’t get me started on windstorm insurance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 18z euro Quite weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Can we please cut the banter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Can we please cut the banter?Yeah, npSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, shaggy said: So essentially the gefs mean matches that of the eps Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Quite weak That's the old low-res map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Prospero said: We are paying $200 a month for storage mostly for a lot of plywood left over from Irma. I didn't want to leave it in our storage shed as by now it would be a termite ant infested creepy mess. We do have a hundred dollars worth of junk in the storage as well we don't want to throw away, but at about $12,000 over 5 years I think tossing the plywood in the trash after Irma would have been a great investment. Left the Ike plywood outside, it warped. Disposed. I feel a little guilty, besides my birthplace of NYC, TPA is my last weenie wanna see, and Sandy was close enough for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Anyone post the latest intensity model guidance yet? Here it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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