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2022 Atlantic hurricane season whining/banter


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53 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Boring this  year for  sure. Hurricane season 2023 will live  on in peoples  memories for  years to come. Mark that down.

Seems like the active and quiet years go in cycles. We had a nice stretch of active years. This might be the start of a quiet stretch...

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32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What are y'all talking about?  It's been an active September.

0/3/3 on September 18 with nothing else on the models through the end of the month is a tad above average in number of hurricanes and a tad below average in number of named storms. I wouldn't call that "active". Not to mention the uninteresting paths of all three. 

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13 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

0/3/3 on September 18 with nothing else on the models through the end of the month is a tad above average in number of hurricanes and a tad below average in number of named storms. I wouldn't call that "active". Not to mention the uninteresting paths of all three. 

Puerto Rico getting hit with Fiona counts as uninteresting?

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GFS ensembles have random Caribbean and Gulf storms through the first few days of October, but the amount of East Pac activity the GFS and Euro ensembles have been showing tends to suggest nothing soon down there.  Bermuda sees enough hurricanes that they are hardened, a Fiona hit in Canada as a 930s to 950s hybrid is interesting.

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20 hours ago, cptcatz said:

0/3/3 on September 18 with nothing else on the models through the end of the month is a tad above average in number of hurricanes and a tad below average in number of named storms. I wouldn't call that "active".

 With 12 days still to go, Sept is far from a done deal after Fiona, which itself may become a MH. Keep in mind that as recently as September 10th (just 4 days before the Fiona TC formed on 9/14), people here including myself were considering the possibility of no new TC through 9/20 based on then still very quiet models as even the precursor to Fiona was temporarily quieter. Furthermore, the models including EPS are now making some late Sept W Car noise largely from the AEW now near 43W. Especially with the W Car peak season climo already getting started by then, a TC there then wouldn't be the least bit surprising.
 
 On 9/10, even Andy Hazelton said this:

"Not a whole lot to look at at the climo peak of hurricane season, behind #Earl. 95L fizzled due to shear. The low riding wave is struggling with SAL (EPS refuses to give up on it but color me skeptical). The proverbial #nextwave coming off is already trending weaker on models."

 

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20 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Puerto Rico getting hit with Fiona counts as uninteresting?

I don't mean to downplay the catastrophic flooding that is occuring in Puerto Rico but from an armchair meteorologist perspective, flooding isn't that interesting to me.  Hurricanes interest me because of the wind.  I eagerly await Josh's videos, but honestly an 85 mph cat 1 strike isn't the most interesting.  

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5 hours ago, cptcatz said:

I don't mean to downplay the catastrophic flooding that is occuring in Puerto Rico but from an armchair meteorologist perspective, flooding isn't that interesting to me.  Hurricanes interest me because of the wind.  I eagerly await Josh's videos, but honestly an 85 mph cat 1 strike isn't the most interesting.  

 

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5 hours ago, cptcatz said:

I don't mean to downplay the catastrophic flooding that is occuring in Puerto Rico but from an armchair meteorologist perspective, flooding isn't that interesting to me.  Hurricanes interest me because of the wind.  I eagerly await Josh's videos, but honestly an 85 mph cat 1 strike isn't the most interesting.  

A combo of storm surge & inland flooding is what causes the most damage and kills the most people.

If you're interested in wind then look at tornadoes as only Cat 4-5 storms will produce anything close to an average twister. 

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

A combo of storm surge & inland flooding is what causes the most damage and kills the most people.

If you're interested in wind then look at tornadoes as only Cat 4-5 storms will produce anything close to an average twister. 

I love watching tornado videos.  But there's a big difference between tornado coverage and hurricane coverage.  You can't get inside a tornado.  You can get inside a hurricane.

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This second post just proves my first post so well.  Only two days ago models were pointing at no more storms on the horizon and September ending with 0/3/3 (the 5am NHC forecast on Sunday did not forecast Fiona to be a MH).

Only two days later, we are sitting at 1/3/4, with another likely MH forming next week in the Caribbean, and possibly another TS forming near Africa, and could be ending the month at 2/4/6.

Just goes to show how crap the models are at medium/long range cyclogenesis.

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Why would models be any good a predicting medium to long range cyclogenesis with accuracy?  That's an extremely big ask, especially for something so small in scale like TCG.  The best approach (which many DO NOT take) is to wait and see before making grand nonsensical statements calling a season dead.  Not calling you out cptcatz at all, just saying a statement in general.

 

Oh and I'll also mention Idub should get the screename change to iWeenie.

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12 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Why would models be any good a predicting medium to long range cyclogenesis with accuracy?  That's an extremely big ask, especially for something so small in scale like TCG.  The best approach (which many DO NOT take) is to wait and see before making grand nonsensical statements calling a season dead.  Not calling you out cptcatz at all, just saying a statement in general.

 

Oh and I'll also mention Idub should get the screename change to iWeenie.

It's an interesting conversation.  Your question of why would models be any good a predicting medium to long range cyclogenesis with accuracy could be answered with "why shouldn't they?"  These models are run on some of the largest supercomputers in the world using so many data points from satelites, balloons, airplanes, bouys, etc., and they still can't figure out what's happening in only a few days?  

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2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

It's an interesting conversation.  Your question of why would models be any good a predicting medium to long range cyclogenesis with accuracy could be answered with "why shouldn't they?"  These models are run on some of the largest supercomputers in the world using so many data points from satelites, balloons, airplanes, bouys, etc., and they still can't figure out what's happening in only a few days?  

Yes.  And it took decades of patient effort and billions of dollars/euros to get that good.  Predicting weather is just inherently difficult.

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Here's hoping 98L doesn't become Hurricane "Ian".

I can't stand these "I" names. Last year's "Ida" could've easily been Hurricane "Julian" which was much cooler sounding than "Ida". If 98L is destined to be a memorable storm, I'm hoping for "Hermine" or "Julia" or "Karl". Not another freaking "I" storm. Please. :hurrbear:

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On 9/22/2022 at 9:23 AM, Floydbuster said:

Here's hoping 98L doesn't become Hurricane "Ian".

I can't stand these "I" names. Last year's "Ida" could've easily been Hurricane "Julian" which was much cooler sounding than "Ida". If 98L is destined to be a memorable storm, I'm hoping for "Hermine" or "Julia" or "Karl". Not another freaking "I" storm. Please. :hurrbear:

Tough cookies mate

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Obviously some of this "I" curse stuff is merely the result of the vagaries in timing of giving names. Hermine was literally named 6 hours earlier lol. But regardless of that fact, its a bit crazy that 3 of the last 6 "I" storms have made U.S. landfall at Cat 4 strength (Irma, Ida, Ian)

Ironically :hurrbear: also exists due to an "I" storm (Ike).

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