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2022 Atlantic hurricane season whining/banter


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4 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Honestly I would say it's equal with basically the same risks for both: tree falling on the house or power going out causing either extreme cold in a snowstorm or extreme heat in a hurricane. There really aren't any other risks if you ride out the storm in a house. 

That is somebody dying from the cold because the power went out.

Tell me how many people who stayed at home died from storm surge flooding in Katrina.  Hint:  it was a lot.

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3 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

I guess everybody will look at La Niña’s a little bit different in the future it’s not a slam dunk like it used to be Obviously there’s other pieces of puzzles that trump la Niña

I've always thought that was funny that meteorologists etc will just look at La Nina, active african monsoon and above average sea surface temperatures and just assume that's enough to form an active hurricane season. But the processes of the earth are way more varied and complicated than we understand which is evidenced by this current season. We actually didn't even discover the AMO until the late 80's or how it played a role in active/inactive phases. The name AMO wasn't even coined until 2000 lol. It's just kind of amazing how we're still slowly learning all of these intricacies

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

That is somebody dying from the cold because the power went out.

Tell me how many people who stayed at home died from storm surge flooding in Katrina.  Hint:  it was a lot.

Somebody dying from cold because power went out is still a death related to that system lol

Not sure what you're arguing, seems like you're just saying one poison is worse than the other poison. Not really a point in arguing this.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

That is somebody dying from the cold because the power went out.

Tell me how many people who stayed at home died from storm surge flooding in Katrina.  Hint:  it was a lot.

And the power went out because of the snowstorm...

It's really no different than saying the deaths from Katrina were because of the levee breaches and pump failures. Not sure how power going out in a snowstorm is any different than storm surge causing a levee breach.

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I agree that a hurricane may cause deaths more directly, but snow causes plenty of deaths too. A single snowflake won’t do it sure. But someone who needs to shovel that snow could die from a heart attack. People who have no choice but to go to work could die on the way there. It depends where you live for sure too.

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For me its really simple.  I enjoy severe weather and enjoy watching it and following it.  There are two ways to watch severe weather:  Satellite and radar imagery, and in situ documentation via video.  The latter requires severe weather to interact with human beings and their belongings (Hurricanes must hit land to become youtube viral videos.  Tornadoes must form and plow through things to become youtube viral videos).  Now if you ONLY enjoy the former, then the morality argument holds weight.  But I know for sure nobody here is just here for the satellite eyecandy alone....we like to see the power in real life (and if you say you don't, well I simply don't believe you).

We are all pigs in the mud here.   That is why the morality debate to me is pointless.  You can apply this same line of thinking to watching football, MMA, boxing, bullfighting, etc.

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2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

And the power went out because of the snowstorm...

It's really no different than saying the deaths from Katrina were because of the levee breaches and pump failures. Not sure how power going out in a snowstorm is any different than storm surge causing a levee breach.

The snow is not killing you... it's a manmade failure (power going out) that is killing you.

There were a lot of deaths in Katrina that had nothing to do with pump failures.  I know NO got a lot of the attention but the Mississippi coastal region was obliterated.

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24 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I went 9 NS only because everybody else was going high.  I believed the forecasts of any active season, but this seemed the best way to win.

I think 9 is a bit too low, but I think I'm winning.

You might Price is Right everybody.

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1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Today marks the peak of the season and the September 10 12z runs are in and GFS and Euro both show no cyclogenesis throughout their runs. I wonder how many other September 10 runs have shown nothing. 

Related: Someone elsewhere asked when was the last time there was no TS+ 9/10-15. My answer: 

"The last one was 1992 and then 1985 along with 1975 (both 3rd year cold ENSO analogs), and then 1966.

 Looking back at the 8 ENSO 3rd year analogs, 4 of 8 had no TC 9/10-15: 1985, 1975, 1917, and 1894. These 4 years had high impact storms that formed in the MDR (mainly 50-60W) soon after fwiw."

 Regarding those 4 years, those high impact storms formed 9/16-20 fwiw. If we take today's models at face value, there would be none to form through at least 9/20. With the current MDR SAL as widespread as anytime this season (it goes as far south as 9N!), it is believable that there'd be nothing new through 9/20. But nobody knows for sure as model consensus can be wrong.

 I'll go a step further and see when was the last time there were no TS+ 9/10-20. Answer: if we go by UTC it was 1966 barely. If going by AST, it was 1939 although 1952 was close.

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Bastardi's Saturday Summary was only 6 minutes long today: less than half the normal length. The 6 minutes includes one minute at the start regarding Queen Elizabeth passing and one minute at the end about college football. He addressed the tropics, which he said "are not over yet". He sounded kind of down. He said the reason for the quiet has been the very warm North Atlantic. He talked about the tropics for only two minutes.

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14 hours ago, cptcatz said:

18z GFS is the first run in a while that actually produces a bonafide storm, and one that crosses over the Florida peninsula.  We'll see if this sticks or was a one-off.

6Z GEFS ensembles are just the random popcorn of systems from the SW Caribbean the GFS has a know issue with.  I have a smidge more faith in the Euro ensembles with storms N of the Greater Antilles that could either fish or impact the SEUSA, but Euro loses enthusiasm with systems the closer it gets to go time.  Euro ensembles at 10 days N of the G Antilles could be the vorticity approaching Florida on the op. Euro  But I wouldn't be surprised if there was no tropical development in the ATL through the Equinox.  Random Danielle type high latitude sub-tropical formation off an old frontal system, who knows.?.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Boring

Bring on winter 

I'm sure something will develop N of 30N from an old frontal boundary by the 30th, but I have a funny feeling there won't be another system of tropical origin this month.  17 to 24 October 9/8/22 Euro weeklies show the Caribbean as wetter than normal, but not even October looks exciting.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Boring

Bring on winter 

Bring on the Autumnal severe season.  HOU gets little MAM severe because cold waters over the Northern Gulf mean low clouds and fog, a cap easily broken with a few hours of sunshine in DFW doesn't break here under the stratus.  1992, the slow (except Andrew) hurricane season, produced what I believe are the last F-4 tornadoes in the HGX CWA.  In November.

 

It did snow almost an inch in December 2017.  February 2021 multi-day freeze w/ rolling blackouts, it drifted in the air like snow, but closer inspection revealed freezing drizzle.  And 2021 killed my citrus.  I thought my Washingtonia palm died, but it came back after looking dead for a couple of months.  When I thought it was dead, when new seedlings came up in April, I planted 5 around my yard.  Those puppies grow at least a foot per year, or my yard will look like Florida in 20 years.

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The Washingtonia palm drops a lot of seeds.  Give me a few of them and 20 acres of land, in 50 years I can have an oasis.  They are native to the Sonoran desert and parts of S. California, they are cold tolerant to near 10F.  The native Sabal Mexicana, a variant of the S. Carolina palmetto, laughed at the 2/2021 freeze.  Probably why they are native...

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On 9/14/2022 at 5:54 PM, cptcatz said:

I'll give models credit for telling us where an established storm will go in the short term. But it's pretty crazy how bad they are at forecasting cyclogenesis. I wonder what the scientists/programmers can do to help that. 

Perhaps it is time to turn to self taught AI to develop a better computer program to forecast the weather.

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