Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,185
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    AtlanticWx
    Newest Member
    AtlanticWx
    Joined

Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

After a few additional showers or thundershowers tonight, tomorrow will be another warm day with temperatures rising to near or somewhat above normal levels. Afterward, cooler air will be bleeding into the region. The week could end with unseasonably cool temperatures.

Developments in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. A decline in the anomaly to -1.0°C or below would likely mean a warmer than normal outcome. Since 1950, 11/13 (85%) of cases where the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C or below were warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. In New York City, the mean monthly temperature for those cases was 59.3° (the current normal is 57.9°). Of the two cooler cases, 1967 was slightly below normal while 1988 was much cooler than normal.

Later this week, Cuba will face a potential major hurricane threat and the Gulf Coast of Florida could face a hurricane threat.

In part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions. The cool weather could continue into the start of October.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +24.07 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.108 today.

On September 23 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.478 (RMM). The September 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.500 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah this 2nd line looks intense 

Yeah it's just hitting here now. Starting to pour again and just had a very close lightning strike. My DirecTV just went out again too. Annoying that it's messing up me watching the football game, but I'm glad we're getting the rain. Another very small storm, so it'll pour for only a few minutes again but it's very intense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it's just hitting here now. Starting to pour again and just had a very close lightning strike. My DirecTV just went out again too. Annoying that it's messing up me watching the football game, but I'm glad we're getting the rain. Another very small storm, so it'll pour for only a few minutes again but it's very intense.

Thunder and a present downpour in RedHook. As always ….

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it's just hitting here now. Starting to pour again and just had a very close lightning strike. My DirecTV just went out again too. Annoying that it's messing up me watching the football game, but I'm glad we're getting the rain. Another very small storm, so it'll pour for only a few minutes again but it's very intense.

Round #3 incoming in a few though it could miss to the north

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rjay unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...