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of course we are gunna get shunked here on the rain.  cant make this crap up.
First round looks to clip the usual areas, city, north, west and through the tropical north shore of Long Island...

I pray the main frontal passage hits the desert like southern plains of the Island in need of the liquid gold...



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Impressive Fiona wave break will set up an strong blocking pattern for the rest of the month. First lows near 50° in NYC by Saturday. Then the next tropical system gets stuck underneath strong Canadian high pressure to the north. So that my be our best shot at soaking rains around the area depending on the exact track. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Shocking. Most of the rain missing to the north and west. My lawn turning brown again quickly 

Partly cloudy here in brightwaters. Radar looks like it’s going to miss us later

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75 / 67 front into W PA an moving quickly.  Coolest air of the season to open the season this weekend Fri (9/23) - Sun (9/25).  A bit of a rebound Mon (9/26) into next week.  Rain chances today with the front and again on Sun PM / Mon but nothing too organized down by us.  We watch the tropics and what will probably be Hermine (or Ian).  That is GFS into the C-GOM / Euro into the W-FL / Pan handle by a week from today Sep 29, then crawls up the east coast.  Either way look for potential rain and maybe load of it on the 10/1 - 10/4 timeframe.  beyond there likely return to a warmer period (againt normals).    

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Front will sweep through around noon, last several hours. I think we will the see the most significant rain in several months compared to the very little amounts we've gotten. Anymore than 0.35" and it will be the best event since June. What an insanely dry period we're in here. Never seen so many trees wilting, and or dead. ISP has received way more rain than my location, so it's the second driest July 1-September 21 period on record there behind 2005. Would assume it's probably the driest on record for my location if we had long term data here

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I may start commenting more frequently on upcoming tropical moisture by the end of the month. I'm thinking a little faster than most on this... partly per previous expectations and partly per the EPS continuing to considerably alter it's 500MB features to a favorable track for overrunning rainfall here.  If you use the EPS... an east coast heavy rain maker is coming. My confidence for this reality here is slowly increasing per EPS trends. 

00z/22 has a shot at (probable next named storm by this time Friday Hermine) a large rain maker making it up here whereas GEFS-GEPS are out to sea south.  This includes RRQ upper level jet enhancement with an inverted trough along the coast.  

I'll add a few graphics in the future if this continues favorable for a 9/30 arrival. 

Uncertainties: Lat-Lon eastward OTS turn and timing, whether its up here in 8 days or first few days Oct. 

Meanwhile, I may be posting info on BDR monthly rainfall ranking this evening.  For now at 4.46 with more to come.

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The next 8 days are averaging  63degs.(55/70) or -3.

Month to date is  72.9[+2.0].        Should be  69.2[+1.4] by the 30th.

Reached 76 here yesterday.

Today:  74-80 early, wind s. to sw. to n., variable clouds,pm rain?, low 50's by tomorrow AM.

71*(94%RH) at 7am.-TS missed to the north.     74* at 9am.     75* at 10am.    Reached   77* at 11:30am.      64* by 2pm.      63* at 3pm.      Back up to 70* at 5pm.       72* at 5:30pm.         Back down to 63* by 9pm.       60* at 11pm.

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11 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Front will sweep through around noon, last several hours. I think we will the see the most significant rain in several months compared to the very little amounts we've gotten. Anymore than 0.35" and it will be the best event since June. What an insanely dry period we're in here. Never seen so many trees wilting, and or dead. ISP has received way more rain than my location, so it's the second driest July 1-September 21 period on record there behind 2005. Would assume it's probably the driest on record for my location if we had long term data here

Hello neighbor. My gut tells me that we see a quick shot of rain as the front dries up as it heads east. Very strong marine influence today with strong onshore winds. 

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15 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Hello neighbor. My gut tells me that we see a quick shot of rain as the front dries up as it heads east. Very strong marine influence today with strong onshore winds. 

I've been trying to be more optimistic. Just glad that we will see some rain today! The fact that this is our first bona fide cold front is a plus. The sun has been peaking out so far, which could help destabilize more. Up to 77 here, 55 at Monticello. Don't think we see an inch today, more like 0.3"-0.7"

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6 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

I've been trying to be more optimistic. Just glad that we will see some rain today! The fact that this is our first bona fide cold front is a plus. The sun has been peaking out so far, which could help destabilize more. Up to 77 here, 55 at Monticello. Don't think we see an inch today, more like 0.3"-0.7"

I’ll take the under. Radar looks pretty thin for what’s going to pass through soon. Hope I’m wrong 

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