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29 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Pouring in the UWS, not sure how in the world the NWS went with a 30% pop in their afternoon update considering how the radar looked!

It was because the models had been showing almost nothing. I was surprised when radar was looking that good. You're right, you have to adjust and increase the rain chance in the forecast when radar shows that the models were wrong. I had a pretty good downpour with some wind here too.

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11 minutes ago, T5403CG said:

Yep... Dries up as cells go north...

The beat goes on... another swing and miss...

.01"... Now about 1.75" since 6/20... 3.25" since June 1st...

Sent from my moto g power (2021) using Tapatalk
 

I’m coining our area the DSS; “Desert South Shore”. It’s ridiculous 

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

To be fair rain wasn't even in the forecast and most places got less than a tenth of an inch

I know, but we’ve passed ludicrous speed in terms of desperation 

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Just now, Rmine1 said:

Highlighting “shot”. Another few hour light rain event will only disappoint 

Crazy for sure-we've been hammered here since the day after Labor Day-close to 5 inches of rain since then yet 25 miles south where you are nothing...

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Crazy for sure-we've been hammered here since the day after Labor Day-close to 5 inches of rain since then yet 25 miles south where you are nothing...

Just go from Eatons Neck to Brightwaters. Like going from Hawaii to the surface of the moon! Lol

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14 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Just go from Eatons Neck to Brightwaters. Like going from Hawaii to the surface of the moon! Lol

That was here mid July to Sept 6th-missed almost every shot of rain-we have dead trees in spots-especially where it's rock and not much soil

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Somewhat cooler air will arrive tonight into tomorrow. A sharp cold shot is likely after midweek. Parts of the region will then see their coldest temperatures so far this season.

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. On September 7, Philadelphia picked up 1.22" of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +22.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.659 today.

On September 17 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.280 (RMM). The September 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.219 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.7° (1.5° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and somewhat cooler than yesterday.  High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 80°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 84°

The coolest air mass so far this season will begin pushing into the region tomorrow. Friday will be much cooler than normal with the temperature topping out in the 60s in parts of the region.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 74.7°; 15-Year: 75.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 76.3°; 15-Year: 77.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.5°; 15-Year: 78.4°

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The Fiona wave break will produce a record 590dm ridge south of Greenland. So Friday into Saturday looks like the first actual fall weather of the season. Lows near 50° in NYC and highs not getting out of the 60s for a day or two. We continue to need record blocking just to get some cooler weather around here.


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Haven't had much to say the past week or so, just riding out all the model fluctuations.  

I don't think the SPC HREF did very well yesterday...attached CoCoRaHs amounts. 

 

You're seeing all the models.  I am hopeful this long anticipated potential transition for NYC   PWat 2.3" by the end of the month (sometime the last the 5 days) works out and that we're not seeing this potential east coast impacting tropical moisture event shunted out to sea to our south, which is the more probable option as this is writing off the model trends through 06z/20.   

00z-06z/20 EC GFS operational models and ensemble 7 day pcpn expectations are trending favorably to something coming up the coast before peeling seaward.  

Today is the 20th... so we have 3 day more days of ensemble trends to find out for sure whether there is excitement in the air for a big rain maker here the last couple days of the month, after whatever happens late this weekend (25th).  So a BDR record monthly rainfall is on my mind...right now still very low probability.  

Screen Shot 2022-09-20 at 8.47.52 AM.png

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The next 8 days are averaging  67degs.(60/75) or +1.

Month to date is  73.0[+1.8].        Should be  71.3[+1.6] by the 28th.

Reached 84 here yesterday.

Today:  78-83, wind w.-nw--breezy, variable clouds, 65 tomorrow AM.

Sat. Oct. 01 >>>>>   40-60mph winds from the e./se and 3" Rain ???

69*(93%RH) here at 7am.      70* at 9am.      73* at Noon.        77* at 3pm.      Reached  79* at 5pm.

 

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72 / 60 and shaping up to be a gorgeous day today. Mostly sunny especially southern sections and highs in the near or low 80s.  A bit warmer tomorrow but not enough to get the heat that was once possible with nor Western Atlantic ridge link and by time the stronger heat arrives in the atmosphere we are dealing with a front and clouds/showers Thu (9/22).  Cooldown to May cool (not seen since then) Fri (9/23) - Sun (9/25).  Warm up Mon (9/26) - 9/27 near normal before next push of cool arrives next Wed (9/28) and to close the month.   IT does appear that ridging is pushing east to open next month and back to an overall warmer than normal.

 

 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Tropics finally heating up

 

Most of the last 2/3 run cycles of the gfs and ecm had some tropical low into the GOM towards the end of next week.   Will be interesting to see the progression of any development and any subsequent potential for rains here.

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