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Tracking the Tropics


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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Looks like the weekend is going to be quite gusty up here being in the gradient between Fiona and the HP to the west, Gust could reach 50mph+ for the elevations.

Double that and then some probably for Cape Breton, N.S.  They gonna get rolled I think. 

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2 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Last similar one before 38 was the colonial hurricane.  These things only happen once every few hundred years. 

Mother Nature:  "oh would you look at that!  It's only been 84 years, better cancel what I had in store for SNE.  Need to wait another hundred years. Drat."

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7 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Last similar one before 38 was the colonial hurricane.  These things only happen once every few hundred years. 

1815 was close. so its a once every 100-150 year type storm based on the small 400 year sample size. 

Carol in 1954 was pretty bad too (Cat 3). 

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22 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

1815 was close. so its a once every 100-150 year type storm based on the small 400 year sample size. 

Carol in 1954 was pretty bad too (Cat 3). 

Need to check in with ginxy and the ancient sediment cores to find the return rate.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I was too high

From a coastal risk perspective, U.S. emergency officials should consider a plan involving a major hurricane – at Category 3 or higher intensity – every 30 to 40 years instead of every 100 or 200 years as currently believed.

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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean I'd take those return rates with a grain of salt since we're relying just on cores, but with a warming climate maybe we get above that threshold which allows a higher frequency of majors getting up to our latitude.

But flow is faster during a warming climate, so it would push them out to sea more. 

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