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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!


weatherwiz
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Monday, July 18, 2022:

Strong shear overspreading the region characterized by bulk shear values exceeding 30 knots and effective helicity values approaching 150-200 m2s2 along the warm front. A very moist low-level airmass characterized by dewpoints into the upper 60's is helping to yield modest CAPE values. With strong shear expected across the region through the day we'll see multiple opportunities for thunderstorms through the day. One this morning with the warm front and additional development over the course of the day. Given modest CAPE and strong shear (including directional shear) a few weak tornadoes and some localized damaging wind gusts are possible!!!

Thursday, July 21, 2022:

Potential for moderate instability and strong wind shear = wind damage threat!!! (More on this later) 

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3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Anyone got a boat? Maybe some spouts over the Sound? Nice structure on radar. 

Persisting more to the E and SE than modeled, but no surprise as LLJ starts to increase along and south of the WF. 

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47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

some encouraging satellite trends. We obviously aren't going to see widespread full out heating but there's going to be at least pockets of stronger heating. Really won't need much to make [low-level] CAPE skyrocket given dews. 

Looks like a 7/10 split with the rain now, Central CT to Central Ma might do ok 

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6 minutes ago, radarman said:

Would like to see a little clearing before getting too bullish in these parts.  Maybe we get a window after like 1pm?

yeah have to see how far north that area of clearing can get. Hopefully we don't see a situation where the weak capping allows crap to keep developing. Encouraging to see the HRRR with successive runs at some potent storms moving through Connecticut. Monday's I do trivia in New Britain so maybe I can get some good action going into CT later

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10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

That same T-storm  in Long Island sound seems like it’s been sitting there for hours 

Have had some rumblings of thunder here the past couple of hours but the stuff over LI has had no interest in moving inland. Still have managed to pick up 0.35" though.

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Severe watch coming soon...unless local offices argue for a TOR

image.png.326c5673e19767b0638775a7facbdfcc.png

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1508
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

   Areas affected...parts of far northern VA...MD...eastern
   PA...northern DE...NJ...southern NY...western MA and CT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 181618Z - 181815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible this
   afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southwest New
   England. The severe threat is expected to increase over the next
   couple of hours, and a watch will likely be needed for portions of
   the region.

   DISCUSSION...Areas of clearing from northern VA into eastern PA/NJ
   have allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s at midday. This has
   allowed weak to moderate destabilization to occur amid 70s surface
   dewpoints. Further north into the Hudson Valley and southwestern New
   England, thicker cloud cover and showers are keeping temperatures in
   the low/mid 70s and limiting stronger destabilization. However, some
   clearing across these areas through the afternoon should allow for
   modest heating and at least weak destabilization later today.

   Latest visible satellite indicates a cluster of vertically
   developing CU near the PA/NJ border as of 16z. Latest radar trends
   are increasing with this activity as well. This convection is
   developing along an axis of greater instability extending from the
   northern Chesapeake Bay toward northern NJ. Thunderstorms are
   expected to gradually increase across this area over the next couple
   of hours. Moderate vertical shear will support organized clusters
   and semi-discrete supercell structures capable of damaging gusts. 

   Stronger low-level shear and more favorably curved hodographs will
   reside from northeast PA/northern NJ toward the lower Hudson Valley.
   Latest VWP data from KBMG and KENX show enlarged low-level
   hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2. However,
   weaker instability in conjunction with poor lapse rates may limit
   intensity/longevity of any stronger cells across this area.
   Nevertheless, any sustained convection will pose a risk for a couple
   of tornadoes. 

   Given current trends, a watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2
   hours.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/18/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
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Despite the last hour and a half of steady pitter-pattering light rain, we've managed to just nick 80 here, over a DP of 74 ...

Rain has stopped now and the sky, despite satellite .. . has that day-glo lamp look and feels warm when turning one's weinershnitzel face toward the heavens seeking god's speed severe weather light...

Not sure if this enough to propagate the same instability up into interior N-central Mass and SE NH... but, judging by rad/sat trends.. we're likely at a minimum good for some lawn greening rains.  Hopefully...

 

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Clouds and the developing area of rain really killing things...then we have that cluster that developed in northwest New Jersey which will be moving into western Connecticut within a few hours. It's a nice looking cluster with tons of lightning) but it's probably at it's maximum intensity. Maybe some localized influences can work to tighten any rotation but the clouds/precip are yielding really crappy low-level lapse rates. Steeper low-level lapse rates would have gone a long way in additional parcel acceleration and yielded better (not necessarily in terms of numbers) low-level CAPE...better in the sense of it could be utilized more efficiently to assist with tightening couplets. 

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