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58 minutes ago, uncle W said:

NYC hardly every gets below 60 in July and August now days...so far July's min is 65...near the top for highest July monthly min...

The only good news for the NYC late July minimum temperature is that it’s increasing at a slower rate than areas to our north like POU.
 

9C5BB7C5-F9B4-4030-AA91-3F8C998B46FD.thumb.jpeg.8543a2f3c67362105a0838eb064c88b3.jpeg

DBADB8EA-FB7F-4CC4-B4B4-E28BEAA1A478.thumb.jpeg.06df899006e6e0e8db965ef3ae496c55.jpeg

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Down to 61 last night and now up to 82. More sun today could push the warmer spots to 90, aided by the dryness in those areas.  Surge of heat and humidity thu (7/28) and Fri (7/29) but accompanied by storms and showers could limit stronger heat potential but offer some rains to even the dry CNJ/ NE-NJ sections.  Overall warm to end the month with temps over achieving on clear days as the Western Atlantic ridge builds west.  Continued support for the Rockies Ridge to link with the westward expansive Western Atl ridge by next wed (8/3) setting up a period of hot, humid conditions and potential strong heat the end of next week / next weekend and beyond 8/8,

 

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Hopefully, we can pick up some rains with the hit or miss convection next few days. The drought models are expanding the drought conditions next week. So looking like our next 100°+ heat potential will be in early August.
 

551E8D0A-8070-4AED-BDEB-0AD885B5FFDE.thumb.png.513ef58d29d9cd269deb181fdaa9d5a5.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php


US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 26 2022

Synopsis: Dynamical models continue to depict an expanding area of mid-level high pressure over the central CONUS during the week-2 period which shifts eastward as the week progresses, resulting in an elevated threat of excessive heat for much of the CONUS east of the Rocky Mountains, especially for the Central and Northern Plains, and the Midwest early in the forecast period and expanding into the Northeast later in the period. When coupled with a below-average precipitation forecast, drought development is possible for portions of the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Valley, as well as for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and the lower Hudson River Valley. 

 

  • Rapid-onset drought possible for portions of Iowa, southern Minnesota, eastern Nebraska, and eastern South Dakota, as well as eastern Pennsylvania, central and northern New Jersey, and southeastern New York.
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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, we can pick up some rains with the hit or miss convection next few days. The drought models are expanding the drought conditions next week. So looking like our next 100°+ heat potential will be in early August.
 

551E8D0A-8070-4AED-BDEB-0AD885B5FFDE.thumb.png.513ef58d29d9cd269deb181fdaa9d5a5.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php


US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 26 2022

Synopsis: Dynamical models continue to depict an expanding area of mid-level high pressure over the central CONUS during the week-2 period which shifts eastward as the week progresses, resulting in an elevated threat of excessive heat for much of the CONUS east of the Rocky Mountains, especially for the Central and Northern Plains, and the Midwest early in the forecast period and expanding into the Northeast later in the period. When coupled with a below-average precipitation forecast, drought development is possible for portions of the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Valley, as well as for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and the lower Hudson River Valley. 

 

  • Rapid-onset drought possible for portions of Iowa, southern Minnesota, eastern Nebraska, and eastern South Dakota, as well as eastern Pennsylvania, central and northern New Jersey, and southeastern New York.

Amazing how within a 30 minute drive you can go from plenty of rain and moisture for the summer to charred flash drought here on the island. 

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Both August and September look like this pressure wise:     How do you have an AN Hurricane Season with this P pattern?      The precipitation stays BN along the whole coastal region from the GOM and the whole EC.       Not a leg to stand on or a cloud formation to name ie. "Colin".

1659312000-Cc35ew9pEhE.png

GOM favored, but to what end?

 

1659312000-T0zCHavjFGA.png

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The only good news for the NYC late July minimum temperature is that it’s increasing at a slower rate than areas to our north like POU.
 

9C5BB7C5-F9B4-4030-AA91-3F8C998B46FD.thumb.jpeg.8543a2f3c67362105a0838eb064c88b3.jpeg

DBADB8EA-FB7F-4CC4-B4B4-E28BEAA1A478.thumb.jpeg.06df899006e6e0e8db965ef3ae496c55.jpeg

It is especially noticeable on Eastern Long Island now too. The increased humidity levels are driving much higher overnight mins from 2010 onward.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup, essentially from one end of Rt 135 to the other, drought to deluge. 

Drove from one end to the other on Saturday. Once you are south of Bethpage State Park, everything is toasted. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, we can pick up some rains with the hit or miss convection next few days. The drought models are expanding the drought conditions next week. So looking like our next 100°+ heat potential will be in early August.
 

551E8D0A-8070-4AED-BDEB-0AD885B5FFDE.thumb.png.513ef58d29d9cd269deb181fdaa9d5a5.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php


US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 26 2022

Synopsis: Dynamical models continue to depict an expanding area of mid-level high pressure over the central CONUS during the week-2 period which shifts eastward as the week progresses, resulting in an elevated threat of excessive heat for much of the CONUS east of the Rocky Mountains, especially for the Central and Northern Plains, and the Midwest early in the forecast period and expanding into the Northeast later in the period. When coupled with a below-average precipitation forecast, drought development is possible for portions of the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Valley, as well as for portions of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and the lower Hudson River Valley. 

 

  • Rapid-onset drought possible for portions of Iowa, southern Minnesota, eastern Nebraska, and eastern South Dakota, as well as eastern Pennsylvania, central and northern New Jersey, and southeastern New York.

All the models continue to show a skunk zone in the same area the next few days. 

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GFS breaks down the WAR too fast so it moves a cold front right into it on Aug 9th and then displaces it to the south and east. If it's scenario were true the heat would probably build back in no later than Aug 14th anyway.  Either way or even with the CMC maps we got some heat whether it's a prolonged heatwave or record-breaking heat we do not know yet but the ensembles consistently point to some very hot conditions.

WX/PT

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16 hours ago, Allsnow said:

All the models continue to show a skunk zone in the same area the next few days. 

Parts of the area may get upgraded from D0 to D1 as soon as tomorrow. Then maybe a D2 could be possible in early August with more heat. Hopefully, we shift to a wetter pattern before getting anywhere near 2001-2002 levels. 
 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx

7E2708DD-4DB2-423B-8D2A-B4F2CAE8B5CA.thumb.png.cac1e3b15bea4826c6e80c9f9d7a17dc.png

 

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Your area may get upgraded from D0 to D1 as soon as tomorrow. Then maybe a D2 could be possible in early August with more heat. Hopefully, we shift to a wetter pattern before getting anywhere near 2001-2002 levels. 
 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx

7E2708DD-4DB2-423B-8D2A-B4F2CAE8B5CA.thumb.png.cac1e3b15bea4826c6e80c9f9d7a17dc.png

 

We're used to flipping from one extreme to the next so a major drought isn't surprising after record rains a year ago

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33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're used to flipping from one extreme to the next so a major drought isn't surprising after record rains a year ago

La Niña summers that start out hot and dry usually turn wetter by later in summer or early in the fall. 

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ECMWF now also a little too far south with the placement of WAR to allow for a record breaking or prolonged heatwave for our area at least through August 6th. A weak b-door front coming through late on Aug 5th or the night of the 5th. It does not preclude a record-breaking or prolonged heatwave from happening a little later during the month of August and the ensembles continue to show a favorable pattern of it.

WX/PT

ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_11.png 

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6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

ECMWF now also a little too far south with the placement of WAR to allow for a record breaking or prolonged heatwave for our area at least through August 6th. A weak b-door front coming through late on Aug 5th or the night of the 5th. It does not preclude a record-breaking or prolonged heatwave from happening a little later during the month of August and the ensembles continue to show a favorable pattern of it.

WX/PT

ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_11.png 

The tendency has been for the best ridging to be over the plains, so wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see that continue. Maybe the ring of fire can bring us some widespread rain in that case. 

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44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has .5-.75 for tonight around my area but it’s real hard to buy into with other models showing nothing 

it's mostly convection so models will have a hard time pinpointing until we are 6 hrs out (HRRR time etc)

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Temperatures will generally remain near or above normal through the remainder of the month.

There is potential for significant heat to expand into the region late in the first week of August. Overall, August will likely be warmer than normal.

In the Midwest, St. Louis picked up 8.64" rainfall today. That swept away the longstanding daily rainfall record of 6.85", which was set on August 20, 1915.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +6.89.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.015 today.

On July 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.485 (RMM). The July 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.419 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.6° (2.1° above normal).

 

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Someone mentioned their eastern redbud the other day. Mine is now turning yellow and starting to drop its leaves

it's going to be ugly if we don't get rain before the next heat wave 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The vegetation on the Long Island South Shore is as brown as in this drone video from Central NJ.

 

So far, during every drought "emergency" the last 20 years or so, NJ allows residents (that employ a lawn service) to water their lawn.  That's rather silly.

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