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July 2022


bluewave
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Forecast area will remain at the southern edge of the westerlies through the upcoming weak, which will allow for several frontal systems to impact the area. Additionally, temperatures this week will be mainly at or just above normal with the exception of Monday and Friday, where temperatures will be a bit warmer ahead of approaching cold fronts. There is uncertainty Monday with both temperatures and the magnitude/coverage of convection in the afternoon/evening hours as a pre-frontal trough triggers the majority of the convection. Model time-height cross sections indicate an abundance of mid and high level moisture (clouds) which would be a limiting factor for highs as well as how much the airmass destabilizes. For the time, have held off on extending the heat advisory into Monday, but the potential remains. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire area Monday. The main threat being damaging winds associated with multicell clusters or line segments. Deep-layer shear does deepen through the day. The question is the amount of daytime heating/destabilization (extent of cloud cover) and whether the forcing with the pre-frontal trough will be deep enough to trigger convection. Mid-level lapse rates, as has been the case for most events this warm season, are around or just shy of 6C. So while not a slam dunk event (rarely are here), the ingredients are there for severe weather. In addition, the southward progression of the boundary will be slow, raising possible concerns for training of thunderstorms. WPC has the area under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. High pressure builds in behind the cold front for Tue and Wed. A warm front is forecast to move through the area Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by a cold frontal passage Friday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast during this time.

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19 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

 

Just combed through the data. 44025 reached a brief high of 29.1 degrees celsius or 84.4°F in 2016. 44025 never had water temps above 27°C (80.6°F) until 2016, it also happened in 2020 as well. This heat wave will bring them very close, top 3 for sure.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/histsearch.php?station=44025&year=2016&f1=wtmp&t1a=ge&v1a=27&t1b=&v1b=&c1=&f2=&t2a=&v2a=&t2b=&v2b=&c2=&f3=&t3a=&v3a=&t3b=&v3b=&mode=sum

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/histsearch.php?station=44025&year=2020&f1=wtmp&t1a=ge&v1a=27&t1b=&v1b=&c1=&f2=&t2a=&v2a=&t2b=&v2b=&c2=&f3=&t3a=&v3a=&t3b=&v3b=&mode=sum

When do the sea surface temperatures at these off shore buoys typically peak?  Would the end of August be when the max would be reached?

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6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

When do the sea surface temperatures at these off shore buoys typically peak?  Would the end of August be when the max would be reached?

 

Depends on the summer but average water temperatures usually peak in August, sometimes earlier, sometimes later. It mostly depends on the weather though. Water temperatures are usually at their highest at the end of heat waves.

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51 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

 

Just combed through the data. 44025 reached a brief high of 29.1 degrees celsius or 84.4°F in 2016. 44025 never had water temps above 27°C (80.6°F) until 2016, it also happened in 2020 as well. This heat wave will bring them very close, top 3 for sure.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/histsearch.php?station=44025&year=2016&f1=wtmp&t1a=ge&v1a=27&t1b=&v1b=&c1=&f2=&t2a=&v2a=&t2b=&v2b=&c2=&f3=&t3a=&v3a=&t3b=&v3b=&mode=sum

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/histsearch.php?station=44025&year=2020&f1=wtmp&t1a=ge&v1a=27&t1b=&v1b=&c1=&f2=&t2a=&v2a=&t2b=&v2b=&c2=&f3=&t3a=&v3a=&t3b=&v3b=&mode=sum

That 84.4 looks like an error to me in the saved file on the website. I don’t remember seeing that buoy go warmer than 79° to 81°. It would be helpful if there was a saved regional weather round up for that day out of OKX with the actual buoy reports. 

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A hot day that saw temperatures rise into the middle and upper 90s in much of the region has concluded. Tomorrow has the potential to be a few degrees warmer. Tomorrow will feature sunshine with near record and record heat. Highs will reach 95°-100° with higher figures in the lower 100s across much of the region.

Select daily records for July 24:

Allentown: 95°, 1999 and 2016
Baltimore: 101°, 2010
Bridgeport: 95°, 2010
Hartford: 96°, 1987
Islip: 96°, 2010
New York City-JFK: 97°, 2010
New York City-LGA: 98°, 1999 and 2010
New York City-NYC: 97°, 1999 and 2010
Newark: 99°, 2010
Philadelphia: 98°, 2011
Poughkeepsie: 100°, 1933
Washington, DC: 101°, 2010
White Plains: 95°, 1952

Monday will be slightly cooler, but temperatures will still reach the lower 90s across much of the region. Afterward, temperatures will become several degrees cooler through midweek.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around July 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +1.66.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.122 today.

On July 21 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.148 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.689 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 80.0° (2.5° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That 84.4 looks like an error to me in the saved file on the website. I don’t remember seeing that buoy go warmer than 79° to 81°. It would be helpful if there was a saved regional weather round up for that day out of OKX with the actual buoy reports. 

It does look too high of a number to be true and it's most likely wrong. I'll be honest, I don't particularly recall the water being that warm either, highest being about 81°. 84° would not be an accurate measurement of the average temperature in the top 5ft of the water column. Checking the data, the air temperature was cooler than the water on that day.

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Newark is tied with 2011 for the warmest July. It’s the 3rd warmest July in Somerset County NJ. Philly is in 4th place for warmest July. The heat also extends into our northern suburbs. Danbury is currently having their 2nd warmest July.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 82.7 8
- 2011 82.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 78.5 1
2 2020 78.0 0
3 2022 77.8 8


 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2011 82.4 0
2 1994 82.1 0
3 2020 81.9 0
4 2022 81.8 8
- 2012 81.8 0


 

Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 76.4 8
2 2022 75.7 8
- 2013 75.7 0
3 2020 75.6 0
4 2010 74.7 0
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The last 8 days of July are averaging  83degs.(74/93) or +5.

The month to date is  79.5[+2.1].       July should end at  80.4[+2.9].

Reached 91 here yesterday bet. 1pm-2pm---then fell back to mid 80's.

Today: 94-99, wind w., few clouds, 78 tomorrow AM.

GFS Ens. says the 95-101 regime ends today, but the next 15 are still +2 to +4.

79*(83%RH) here at 7am.        83*(59%RH) at 9am.      85* at Noon.       89* at 1pm.      90* at 1:30pm.       91* at 2pm.     Same T collapse as yesterday, plus high thin clouds have appeared......86* at 3pm.         85*(75%RH) at 4pm---feels like 95*.        Back to 90* at 7pm.       New high for the day of 92*  near 7:30pm.      86*(72%RH) at 11pm---feels like 96*.

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and very hot with near record and record heat. There could be afternoon or evening thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach 95°-100° most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 96°

Newark: 102°

Philadelphia: 100°

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85,2°; 15-Year: 86.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 88.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.9°

Select daily records for July 24:

Allentown: 95°, 1999 and 2016
Baltimore: 101°, 2010
Bridgeport: 95°, 2010
Hartford: 96°, 1987
Islip: 96°, 2010
New York City-JFK: 97°, 2010
New York City-LGA: 98°, 1999 and 2010
New York City-NYC: 97°, 1999 and 2010
Newark: 99°, 2010
Philadelphia: 98°, 2011
Poughkeepsie: 100°, 1933
Washington, DC: 101°, 2010
White Plains: 95°, 1952

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Today looks like the peak of the heatwave with Newark making a run on a record breaking 102°. It will also be the first time that Newark had a 5 day 100° heatwave. The best that Newark did  in the past was 4 consecutive 100° days.


7F6EE9E5-6DD7-4972-91D2-8126AA8EAB58.thumb.png.e4ead8b9a6806ede43398c5b1ff01079.png
 

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2022-07-23
1 4 2022-07-23
- 4 2010-07-07
- 4 1993-07-10
- 4 1953-08-31
2 3 2011-07-23
- 3 2006-08-03
- 3 2001-08-09
- 3 1966-07-04
- 3 1949-08-11
- 3 1949-07-30
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