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July 2022


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4 hours ago, uncle W said:

July 2010 was on the dry side...2011 was closer to averege...Aug 2011 was very wet...this year is not exactly wet so 100 can be reached...

Just wait until we get that ridge over us in August.

WX/PT

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woke up to i thought was the sound of thunder in the city even checked online no rain kin the city heard a few more explosions someone is having fun blowing up some very loud fireworks at 3:00 am in the morning...

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The next 8 days are averaging  78degs.(69/87) or +1.

Reached 88 here late yesterday.

Today:  80-84, wind w., mostly cloudy, breaks, 71 tomorrow AM.

75*(95%RH) here at 7am.      77* at 9am.       80* at 10am.        83* at Noon.       84* at 12:30pm.       82* at 1pm.        In low 80's most of PM---but popped to 89* at around 6:15pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will variably cloudy and warm. Thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, are likely High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 86°

Newark: 91°

Philadelphia: 90°

Tomorrow and Independence Day will be fair and pleasantly warm.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.9°; 15-Year: 84.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.3°; 15-Year: 86.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 87.8°

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77/72 here steamy and mostly cloudy.  May see some breaks of clouds and if they are long enough with an hour or two of sun,  it should push temps near or above 90.  Storms later this pm and overnight into Sunday morning as front is slow to clear, especially coastal areas.  Sun (7/2) should see clearing by noon N/W to S / E and temps mainly in the mid/upper 80s.  Perhaps a stray 90 in the warmer spots of NE and C - NJ.  Fourth of July looks award winning, sunny, warm and great fireworks viewing.  Highs mid- upper 80s with again a chance of a few low 90s in the warmer spots.

Tue (7/5) - Fri (7/8) front nearby to the south and another front coming through offers storms and pop up storms each day.  Timing the pulse of these systems as we ride the rim of the Rockies ridge, but Tue more widespread later in the day with Wed may be mainly dry before later Thu / Fr seeing more scattered storms.  Ridge goes bonkers over Denver during the period and through the 11th, as trough pushes through the northeast nect weekened Sat (7/9) into the following week Mon (7/11).

 

Out beyond:A blast from the western heat timing wise looks to be Tue 7/12 and some hints the heights begin to push east before mid month, perhaps in a more sustained fashion.

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark just had a top 3 warmest July 1st. If past analogs work out, then July 1st will turn out to the warmest day of the month. 5 out of the past 6 years with a 98° to 100° on the 1st had the warmest day of a July on the 1st. Models are hinting at frontloaded warmth this month as the ridge pulls back to the west in Mid-July.
 

Data for July 1 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Warmest Day of Month     
 
1963-07-01 100 July 1st      
2022-07-01 99 ?      
1964-07-01 99 July 1st      
2018-07-01 98 July 1st      
2012-07-01 98 July 18th      
1968-07-01 98 July 1st      
1945-07-01 98 July 1st      


Gradual ridge pull back to the west  into Mid-July 

 

4532D0BA-03E4-4B5C-AF80-B179B827BBF8.thumb.png.b2dc241786ba46f37e9229589b747755.png

6C51BEE3-CB30-4637-B030-81CA2E2F5645.thumb.png.ef01a63c10d28510e423a0daf2b6b881.png

A37077AF-7501-4E03-B448-CFA2F8BF4B1F.thumb.png.0fb04575c27c21b271749a96526c7aae.png


 

That urban area of New Jersey seems to rival anywhere on the east coast, when it comes to summer heat.

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33 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Insane lightning show with the severe warned storm here in Orange County around 130am.   Every second or two there was a huge flash, lasted for about a half hour

We saw distant lightning after midnight all the way down here in Plainfield 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark just had a top 3 warmest July 1st. If past analogs work out, then July 1st will turn out to the warmest day of the month. 5 out of the past 6 years with a 98° to 100° on the 1st had the warmest day of a July on the 1st. Models are hinting at frontloaded warmth this month as the ridge pulls back to the west in Mid-July.
 

Data for July 1 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Warmest Day of Month     
 
1963-07-01 100 July 1st      
2022-07-01 99 ?      
1964-07-01 99 July 1st      
2018-07-01 98 July 1st      
2012-07-01 98 July 18th      
1968-07-01 98 July 1st      
1945-07-01 98 July 1st      


 

These type of post are useless given the actual high for the immediate Newark area was closer to 95 degrees. The temp error was horrendous yesterday during the peak afternoon heating.

2085385784_ewr7-1.png.fe2babbe285ebd7dfde9020ebf6c6155.png

Whether sensor error, location or combo of both the end result is embarrassing at this point. The average day time error over the past 28 days was +2.7 degrees on 6/29. That figure today is now +3.3 degrees so more recent 4-5 degrees errors are showing as yesterday's graph supports.

190189591_ewrpast287-1.thumb.png.639b2fee15c7c5f5c9762adb6df4c3c8.png

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12 minutes ago, Rjay said:

^Can i have a link to this info?

If you have info we don't have please share it.   

And maybe tone down the “useless” talk too. This isnt OT, speak with respect especially to our highest contributing members. 

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48 minutes ago, lee59 said:

That urban area of New Jersey seems to rival anywhere on the east coast, when it comes to summer heat.

I think it's "microclimate stuff" much like interior Queens and BK but what do I know.  

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1 hour ago, BucksCO_PA said:

These type of post are useless given the actual high for the immediate Newark area was closer to 95 degrees.

Harrison and Hoboken topped out at 97°.The industrial area around the airport is usually the hottest part of the region on a SW to W downslope flow. Brooklyn and Queens were slightly cooler due to the very strong onshore flow east of NYC.

Newark Internation

Observation Time: 07/02/22 @ 09:35 EDT  13:35 UTC      Elevation: 16 ft        OK
    
Weather Conditions
Temperature: 84 °F
Dew Point: 72 °F
Humidity: 66 %
Wind: WSW at 8 MPH
 
 24 Hour Max/Min Events
 Max Temperature: 99 °F
 Min Temperature: 79 °F
 Max RH: 74.19 %
 Min RH: 23.92 %
 Max Dew Point: 72 °F
 Min Dew Point: 55 °F
 Max Gust: 44 MPH
 


HSNN4 Harrison

Observation Time: 07/02/22 @ 09:30 EDT  13:30 UTC      Elevation: 23 ft        OK
    
Weather Conditions
Temperature: 82 °F
Dew Point: 73 °F
Humidity: 74 %
Peak Gust: 3 MPH
 
 24 Hour Max/Min Events
 Max Temperature: 97 °F
 Min Temperature: 78 °F
 Max RH: 82 %
 Min RH: 33 %
 Max Dew Point: 74 °F
 Min Dew Point: 63 °F
 Max Gust: 10 MPH
 


 

FW1417 Hoboken

Observation Time: 07/02/22 @ 09:37 EDT  13:37 UTC      Elevation: 13 ft        OK
    
Weather Conditions
Temperature: 83 °F
Dew Point: 73 °F
Humidity: 71 %
Wind: S at 1 MPH
Peak Gust: 7 MPH
 
 24 Hour Max/Min Events
 Max Temperature: 97 °F
 Min Temperature: 78 °F
 Max RH: 79 %
 Min RH: 33 %
 Max Dew Point: 73 °F
 Min Dew Point: 62 °F
 Max Gust: 21 MPH
 


 

Astoria 96
Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 96

 

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7 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Looks like a forecast bust..headed for a partly sunny day with highs around 90 and probably dry

Forecast was more scattered storms today, more widespread later this PM.  The timing of the front came into view later this week.  The quicker forecasts and slower were wrong and the front timing was a compromise.  If we get to 90 it'll be day 4 for some in NE - NJ with outside shot at 90 on Sun and Mon.  Probably then need to assess but temps look capped sub 90s Jul 5 - Jul 11th.

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29 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Forecast was more scattered storms today, more widespread later this PM.  The timing of the front came into view later this week.  The quicker forecasts and slower were wrong and the front timing was a compromise.  If we get to 90 it'll be day 4 for some in NE - NJ with outside shot at 90 on Sun and Mon.  Probably then need to assess but temps look capped sub 90s Jul 5 - Jul 11th.

I think some locations from NYC south and west will hit 90 on the 7th or 8th. It will depend on the coverage of storms with the warm front then cold front. I think there are more *possible* 90 degree days than initially meets the eye.

WX/PT

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2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think some locations from NYC south and west will hit 90 on the 7th or 8th. It will depend on the coverage of storms with the warm front then cold front. I think there are more *possible* 90 degree days than initially meets the eye.

WX/PT

Any day that looks like mid 80s a few days out is a potential 90 for ewr

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