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June 2022


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First model guess for the July 4th weekend is a continuation of the June pattern. The heat ridge remains to our west. Some hint of the trough holding on near New England.


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Down to 49 last night.  Prepping the candy for Halloween.  Bright sunshine today and temps upper 70s to near 80 for the warmer spots, Monday (6/20) continues to build on today with temps near or low 80s.  Perhaps with full sunshine at the peak of the daylight temps can over perform a bit these next 36 hours.

 Then into a bit of unsettled as ridge fires in the plains and tries to push east.  Storms/clouds will limit the heat Tue (6/21) and Wed (6/22) before we turn more onshore for the period 6/22 into next weekend.   Ridge center retreats from near St Louis to the TX/NM border later in the week with   ECM cuts off low in the EC weakness and it meanders under into the Coastal Carolinas before moving or dissipating next weekend.  GFS more into and off the coastal New England.  I guess if there is one day with enough sun then can pull a bit of a sneaky warm to hot it would be Wed but it looks cloudy with some showers and storms around.

Beyond there towards the close of June and open of July, the furnace out west has rebuilt and is pushing east with next shot to watch for heat.  Onto tracking July 4th weather coming into day 15 on the longer range guidance.  Will the W/ Atl Ridge make an appearance.

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49 last night.  Not sure I remember a cooler night this far into June.  The house is 68 degrees.

Today should be better with the sun.  Hoping for July we can turn on the heat switch and get some heatwaves going.

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14 minutes ago, uncle W said:

a cool June is like a mild December to start a season...doesn't mean July won't be hot so enjoy this while its here...last winter December was mild but January was a lot colder with some snow...

Relative to the means, Christmas has been running much warmer than July 4th since 2014. 
 

Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
1964-12-25 69 44 0.01 0.0 0
1982-12-25 68 40 0.02 0.0 0
2014-12-25 64 41 0.10 0.0 0
2015-12-25 63 54 0.03 0.0 0
2020-12-25 62 28 0.66 0.0 0
1940-12-25 61 32 0.00 0.0 0
1994-12-25 60 41 T 0.0 0
1979-12-25 59 47 0.37 0.0 0
1965-12-25 59 40 0.85 0.0 0
1936-12-25 57 36 0.00 0.0 0
2021-12-25 55 38 0.16 0.0 0
2008-12-25 55 33 0.11 0.0 0
1933-12-25 54 30 0.00 0.0 M
1932-12-25 54 43 0.16 0.0 M
1931-12-25 53 31 0.00 0.0 M
2016-12-25 52 34 0.00 0.0 0


 

Data for July 4 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
1949-07-04 105 74 0.08 0.0 0
2010-07-04 101 67 0.00 0.0 0
2002-07-04 100 81 0.00 0.0 0
1966-07-04 100 78 0.00 0.0 0
1999-07-04 99 79 T 0.0 0
2012-07-04 97 73 0.05 0.0 0
1993-07-04 97 74 0.00 0.0 0
1990-07-04 97 71 0.00 0.0 0
1955-07-04 97 73 0.00 0.0 0
1983-07-04 96 79 0.00 0.0 0
1974-07-04 95 76 0.00 0.0 0
1957-07-04 95 70 T 0.0 0
2003-07-04 94 67 0.00 0.0 0
2011-07-04 92 71 0.00 0.0 0
2013-07-04 91 76 0.00 0.0 0
1952-07-04 91 67 1.07 0.0 0
1987-07-04 90 73 0.00 0.0 0
1984-07-04 90 70 T 0.0 0
1977-07-04 90 66 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-04 90 65 0.00 0.0 0
1948-07-04 90 65 0.00 0.0 0


 

 

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Relative to the means, Christmas has been running much warmer than July 4th since 2014. 
 

Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
1964-12-25 69 44 0.01 0.0 0
1982-12-25 68 40 0.02 0.0 0
2014-12-25 64 41 0.10 0.0 0
2015-12-25 63 54 0.03 0.0 0
2020-12-25 62 28 0.66 0.0 0
1940-12-25 61 32 0.00 0.0 0
1994-12-25 60 41 T 0.0 0
1979-12-25 59 47 0.37 0.0 0
1965-12-25 59 40 0.85 0.0 0
1936-12-25 57 36 0.00 0.0 0
2021-12-25 55 38 0.16 0.0 0
2008-12-25 55 33 0.11 0.0 0
1933-12-25 54 30 0.00 0.0 M
1932-12-25 54 43 0.16 0.0 M
1931-12-25 53 31 0.00 0.0 M
2016-12-25 52 34 0.00 0.0 0


 

Data for July 4 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
1949-07-04 105 74 0.08 0.0 0
2010-07-04 101 67 0.00 0.0 0
2002-07-04 100 81 0.00 0.0 0
1966-07-04 100 78 0.00 0.0 0
1999-07-04 99 79 T 0.0 0
2012-07-04 97 73 0.05 0.0 0
1993-07-04 97 74 0.00 0.0 0
1990-07-04 97 71 0.00 0.0 0
1955-07-04 97 73 0.00 0.0 0
1983-07-04 96 79 0.00 0.0 0
1974-07-04 95 76 0.00 0.0 0
1957-07-04 95 70 T 0.0 0
2003-07-04 94 67 0.00 0.0 0
2011-07-04 92 71 0.00 0.0 0
2013-07-04 91 76 0.00 0.0 0
1952-07-04 91 67 1.07 0.0 0
1987-07-04 90 73 0.00 0.0 0
1984-07-04 90 70 T 0.0 0
1977-07-04 90 66 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-04 90 65 0.00 0.0 0
1948-07-04 90 65 0.00 0.0 0


 

 

Newark NJ was 69 on 12/25/64...Central Park was only 60...LGA was 58...I suspect the fog kept temperatures down closer to the water...

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50 minutes ago, uncle W said:

yeah it was wet...

It would be great if some of this June blocking carried over to next winter like it did in 09-10. The west based block at 500 mb is more impressive this June than in 2009. But the ENSO state with the La Niña is much different this year. So even a fraction of that 09-10 winter blocking would be nice to see. That 09-10 winter was part of the big 3 El Niño modoki winters. The rare combo of a cold NYC winter with near 50”+ of snow in 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15.

 

82018B35-8E1B-4450-8A1F-73C8EE09378D.gif.b60998c8c4ccd72830b7a4b54072e401.gif

D0BBCAA1-80ED-4DE4-9B31-21C00D0D09FB.gif.d4e755fbef4a4bb464a6943ffe57d527.gif

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It would be great if some of this June blocking carried over to next winter like it did in 09-10. The west based block at 500 mb is more impressive this June than in 2009. But the ENSO state with the La Niña is much different this year. So even a fraction of that 09-10 winter blocking would be nice to see. That 09-10 winter was part of the big 3 El Niño modoki winters. The rare combo of a cold NYC winter with near 50”+ of snow in 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15.

 

82018B35-8E1B-4450-8A1F-73C8EE09378D.gif.b60998c8c4ccd72830b7a4b54072e401.gif

D0BBCAA1-80ED-4DE4-9B31-21C00D0D09FB.gif.d4e755fbef4a4bb464a6943ffe57d527.gif

 

 

 

add 57-58, 63-64 and 77-78...

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

add 57-58, 63-64 and 77-78...

A winter with near or below freezing temperatures and 50”+ of snow is getting more challenging for NYC.  
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
DJF Temperature
1 1996-04-30 75.6 32.2
2 1948-04-30 63.9 30.0
3 2011-04-30 61.9 32.8
4 1923-04-30 60.4 29.9
5 1873-04-30 60.2 27.7
6 2014-04-30 57.4 32.9
7 1875-04-30 56.4 27.7
8 1899-04-30 55.9 31.5
9 1961-04-30 54.7 31.7
10 1994-04-30 53.4 31.1
11 1907-04-30 53.2 31.1
12 1934-04-30 52.0 29.1
13 1967-04-30 51.5 34.1
14 2010-04-30 51.4 33.8
15 1978-04-30 50.7 30.3
- 1917-04-30 50.7 31.7
- 1916-04-30 50.7 32.4
16 2015-04-30 50.3 31.4
17 1893-04-30 49.4 28.6
18 2003-04-30 49.3 31.2

 

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2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

GFS has July 4h weekend hazy hot and humid but from what we've seen the last two weeks that means about as much as the tooth fairy.

WX/PT

Like the winter with cold, the gfs always wants to bring the heat in summer 

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The big question this week is where will the stationary front and training convection set up? Every model has a different location. So low skill forecast for any given location from Tuesday into Thursday.
 

4E161D39-A2E4-41ED-8B98-D3724EB85B7E.gif.005b6de7d326d9d4c06fd26df0c37f9a.gif


D13970F5-D3E9-4423-B302-FB5DA93274FE.gif.d0682df135b23999bb7e3b1c8831cd60.gif

 

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Newark NJ snow depth...the years with a good stretch of snow cover for December starting with December 1945..the 70's to 90's had only a few good stretch's of snow cover...

1945 had snow on the ground from the 14th to the 25th...10" at some point on the 19th...Christmas morning came in with 4" on the ground...That was gone by the next morning from a rain storm..

1947 had snow on the ground from the 23rd and beyond...1" on the ground Christmas morning...26" storm on the 26th...est. 26" on the 26th on the ground ...

1948 had snow on the ground from the 19th to the 30th...13" on the ground on the 19th...heavy rain ended that streak...

1951 had snow on the ground from the 14th-19th...

1957 had snow on the ground from the 3rd-7th and again from the 11th-14th...est 12" on the 4th...

1958 had a little on the ground from the 8th-15th...

1959 had snow on the ground from the 21st to 27th...3" was on the ground Christmas morning...

1960 had snow on the ground from the 11th-31st...20" on the ground on the 12th...2" on the ground Christmas morning...

1961 had snow on the ground from the 23rd to 31st...est, 10" on the ground on the 24th...8" was on the ground Christmas morning...

1962 had snow on the ground from the 21st to the 26th...2" on the ground Christmas morning...

1963 had snow on the ground from the 12th-16th and the 18th-31st...5" was on the ground Christmas morning...The 5th straight year with at least 2" of snow on the ground Christmas morning...

the 23rd had at least 2" on the ground from 1959 to 1964...six straight years...

1966 had snow on the ground from the 21st to 31st...8" on the ground Christmas morning...

1969 from the 25th-31st...maybe a trace in spots Christmas morning...

1970 from the 22nd to the 28th...1" was on the ground Christmas morning...

1976 had snow on the ground from Christmas night to the 31st...

1980 had an inch on the ground from the 23rd-28th...

1995 had snow on the ground from the 19th-31st...4" was on the ground Christmas morning...

2002 had snow on the ground from the 5th-11th...a trace on the ground Christmas morning to 4" Christmas night...

2003 had snow on the ground from the 5th to the 10th...est 16" on the ground on the 6th...heavy rain ended that streak...

2005 from the 9th-15th...

2008 from the 19th-24th...brown Christmas...

2009 from the 19th-26th...4" on the ground Christmas morning...

2010 from the 26th-31st...est 24" on the 27th...

2013 from the 14th-20th...

2020 from the 16th-22nd...

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Despite deep blue skies and brilliant sunshine, temperatures only reached the lower and middle 70s in much of the area. Tomorrow will be another very cool day before temperatures briefly warm up on Tuesday. The unseasonably cool weather will continue through midweek before warmer air returns.

Meanwhile, record heat continued to affect parts of the Plains States and the South. Records included:

Bismarck: 100° (old record: 97°, 1933, 1988 and 1989)
Fargo: 101° (tied record set in 1933)
Galveston: 97° (old record: 95°, 1875)
Grand Forks, ND: 100° (old record: 95°, 1933)

In Europe, the historic early-season heat shifted eastward toppling records. High temperatures included:

Beaucouze, France: 101°
Beznau, Switzerland: 98°
Berlin: 100°
Bordeaux, France: 101°
Cognac, France: 101°
Cottbus, Germany: 103°
Doksany, Czech Republic: 102°
Dresden: 100°
Geneva: 96°
Husinec, Czech Republic: 102°
Le Mans, France: 100°
Leipzig, Germany: 99°
Lindenberg, Germany: 100°
Pila, Poland: 99°
Potsdam, Germany: 99°
Slubice, Poland: 101°
Strasbourg, France: 100°

During June 16-18, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +20.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.903 today.

On June 17 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.979 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.065 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.7° (0.3° below normal).

 

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