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May Discobs 2022


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2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

0.86 yesterday. Nice lightning and Thunder - a double rainbow... was good. The lawn was mowed 30 minutes before the unload and looks so nice today! :)

 

I mowed Saturday evening in anticipation....was getting a bit nervous when that first line barely dropped any here....second line came through big time....grass trees and shrubs are all smiling this morning :)

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

I feel like post-cell stratiform rain usually does well around these parts.

We do well with CAPE that's elevated in these parts. Given the increased amount of urban infrastructure, the nocturnal stratiform rain is better for the waterways. Less thermal shock, less chance of flash flooding.

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50 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Getting the feeling we are going to be wetter from this southern system than what we first thought. Trending north a bit. We shall see! 

 

For the past few years it seems the axis is heavy precip from summertime mid latitude cyclones has been to trend further north and east in the 12-24 hours leading up to the event.

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42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Model war for Memorial Day weekend. GFS cuts off the low and spins over us with cool rain. Euro and GGEM clear it out for a gorgeous weekend.

I was about to come over here and mention the same. Let's hope the GFS is messed up! It kind of looks unsettled on most of that run for the east. 

 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Model war for Memorial Day weekend. GFS cuts off the low and spins over us with cool rain. Euro and GGEM clear it out for a gorgeous weekend.

12z Euro says near 90 at 18z Monday... while 12z GFS has lower 70s at same time

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4 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Getting the feeling we are going to be wetter from this southern system than what we first thought. Trending north a bit. We shall see! 

 

There won't be much in the way of appreciable rain from DC points N and NE. A tenth to a quarter inch is possible. That sprawling high to the north is no joke. Different story for places S and SW esp into central and southern VA.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

There won't be much in the way of appreciable rain from DC points N and NE. A tenth to a quarter inch is possible. That sprawling high to the north is no joke. Different story for places S and SW esp into central and southern VA.

NAM and Euro both have MBY at or above 0.5” overnight. I’m skeptical…

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

NAM and Euro both have MBY at or above 0.5” overnight. I’m skeptical…

Yeah given the modest nature of the southern wave moving into a strengthening High, I think the GFS depiction makes more sense.

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah given the modest nature of the southern wave moving into a strengthening High, I think the GFS depiction makes more sense.

If this was winter though, I’d be hugging the 18z 3k NAM until it popped.

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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
439 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

VAZ025-036>038-508-240445-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0004.220524T0300Z-220524T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Including the cities of Wintergreen, Staunton, Stanardsville,
Lovingston, Charlottesville, Waynesboro, and Stuarts Draft
439 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central Virginia and western Virginia,
  including the following areas: in central Virginia, Albemarle,
  Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In western
  Virginia, Augusta.

* WHEN...From 11 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Moderate to heavy rain is expected to overspread the Central
    Shenandoah Valley late this evening through midday Tuesday.
    One to three inches of rain are likely with locally higher
    amounts possible. This could potentially lead to instances of
    flooding of small streams and creeks.
  - Please visit http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood for safety
    information.
 
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58 with just over a tenth of an inch of rain overnight. Light showers continue. GFS had the right idea- as expected the weak low struggles to get appreciable rain north of VA against the strengthening high to the NE.

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

58 with just over a tenth of an inch of rain overnight. Light showers continue. GFS had the right idea- as expected the weak low struggles to get appreciable rain north of VA against the strengthening high to the NE.

All hail King GFS!

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