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May Long range


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GEFS looks normal to above normal for temps moving towards and beyond mid May, with precip below normal to normal.

I will definitely take the over on temps as we move towards early summer. We are the MA after all.

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1) El Nino kind of pattern shaping up in the N. Pacific starting tomorrow. 

2) Land/water gradient difference remains on 500mb anomaly

3) I like the idea of warmer than normal going into the Summer. -PDO is a strong pattern right now.

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The closed low that will be shunted southward today will meander around off the SE coast and may attempt to pay us another visit next weekend as it interacts with an approaching trough/cold front.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

The closed low that will be shunted southward today will meander around off the SE coast and may attempt to pay us another visit next weekend as it interacts with an approaching trough/cold front.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Nooooooooooo

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

The closed low that will be shunted southward today will meander around off the SE coast and may attempt to pay us another visit next weekend as it interacts with an approaching trough/cold front.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Stradivarius here we come.  What a loss. 

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Latest CPC ENSO update suggests a continuation of Nina with neutral conditions possible as we move through the summer months. A long way out but predictions for Fall and early winter continue to favor colder SSTs. Not looking Nino-ish at this juncture.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest CPC ENSO update suggests a continuation of Nina with neutral conditions possible as we move through the summer months. A long way out but predictions for Fall and early winter continue to favor colder SSTs. Not looking Nino-ish at this juncture.

BOOOOOOOOOO....dag nabbit son of a frickle! Man I might not sniff more than advisory snow for another two years, smh Well, at least YOU'LL have another great winter. Otherwise...coastal scrapers, no southern stream, GL lows yanking storms nothwest, being caught in between bands, and overall mentally exhausting tracking...It's like frickin' groundhog day and I'm so tired of it. (I'm sure my posts may feel the same...lol)

And yes, I know we'll always struggle any any non- modoki enso, but to keep getting stuck with the enso state that gives us the most trouble out of all of them outright sucks. And while I agree with PSU about the totals for those season, the snowfall numbers don't really tell the whole story: HOW we got there. Ninas are good at ending up with median or even average...but they get there by mainly advisory events. 2 inches here, 2 inches there. There's little "punch" (live 6"+) for places other than the beaches and occasionally the higher elevations when we get to March. Ninas are the only enso state where we can't really get a good track for that kind of thing other than the beaches.  At least the other enso states are more of a coin flip and we don't have so much working against us for a decent storm. Ninas remain the most difficult to get anything more than a few inches at a time--no big hits (12+) or even moderate hits (6+) have happened in my yard for well over a decade. 

I would like to see a chart of how many warning events happened at BWI during ninas vs other enso states. I'll bet the other states have more...lol

If I'm wrong about this...why shouldn't I put a ton of weight on what I've seen since 2016? Too small of a sample size? I mean I've tracked 4 and not 5 Ninas and honestly I haven't seen any difference in how they've behaved! 

I also have a bias...my yard has largely missed the last 7 years, so maybe I'm a bit salty about that...

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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I would like to see a chart of how many warning events happened at BWI during ninas vs other enso states. I'll bet the other states have more...lol

If I'm wrong about this...why shouldn't I put a ton of weight on what I've seen since 2016? Too small of a sample size? I mean I've tracked 4 and not 5 Ninas and honestly I haven't seen any difference in how they've behaved! 

Yes. Your back yard is also not representative of overall patterns. No offense intended... but you can't tell a difference because you aren't looking at the right things. How much snow a little postage stamp of land south of Baltimore has gotten the past few winters is not a useful datapoint.

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On 5/8/2022 at 5:10 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

Well, root for my N. Atlantic SST index (May-Sep)to go deeply negative, we are going into a Weak-Moderate El Nino for the Winter.

Untitled.png

f252 (1).gif

 

19 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest CPC ENSO update suggests a continuation of Nina with neutral conditions possible as we move through the summer months. A long way out but predictions for Fall and early winter continue to favor colder SSTs. Not looking Nino-ish at this juncture.

:lol: :lol:

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3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO.  First stretch of 90 degree weather on tap for next weekend.  (Friday-Sunday next week).

B0CB7628-DCCB-4D8A-9D31-4AAC7A45E8F7.png

Only 6 more weeks until we start to lose daylight. Getting there, fall is just around the corner. 

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On 5/14/2022 at 7:39 AM, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO.  First stretch of 90 degree weather on tap for next weekend.  (Friday-Sunday next week).

B0CB7628-DCCB-4D8A-9D31-4AAC7A45E8F7.png

well i don't normally root for 90 degree weather, but i'll take it over 50/cloudy/breezy (i'm over that) or even 60 and sunny.  i'd lock in upper 70s to low 80s if i could.

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Cooler for the first part of the week, courtesy of a surface high moving across to our north, turning the flow from the E-NE. It will warm up quite a bit beyond Wed, and as far as wet, other than some scattered/isolated showers mostly in the southern parts of the region, any significant rain potential comes with the next frontal passage on Friday. A mischaracterization to claim we are going to have a wet week upcoming.

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