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Weather Trivia: With Caribou reaching 80 degrees, 2022 has become the first year during which Chicago reached 90 degrees (5/11) and Caribou reached 80 degrees (5/12) before Central Park reported its first 80-degree temperature of the year.

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Under variably cloudy skies, temperatures again rose into the 70s across much of the region. Record heat again prevailed from the Midwest into Canada. Records included:

Bangor: 85° (old record: 83°, 1991)
Burlington: 89° (old record: 84°, 2004)
Caribou: 81° (old record: 78°, 1992)
Eau Claire, WI: 94° (old record: 92°, 1900)
Madison: 93° (old record: 86°, 1991) ***Earliest heatwave on record***
Moline, IL: 95° (old record: 94°, 1956)
Montreal: 86° (old record: 81°, 1992)
Ottawa: 85° (old record: 82°, 1992)
Plattsburgh, NY: 85° (old record: 83°, 1956)
Quebec City: 81° (old record: 76°, 2016)
Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 75° (old record: 70°, 2016)
Rockford, IL: 93° (old record: 88°, 1896)
Sherbrooke, QC: 86° (old record: 66°, 2006)
St. Louis: 93° (old record: 92°, 1956)
Syracuse: 85° (old record: 84°, 1985, 1993, and 2014)
Trois-Rivières: 85° (old record: 71°, 2012)

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some showers. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures will likely reach the 70s on both days during the weekend. However, record-challenging or record-breaking temperatures will stay to the north and west of the region.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +32.80 today. That was a May record 3rd consecutive day with an SOI figure at or above +30.00. The old record was set during May 9-10, 2000 and tied during May 27-28, 2010 and May 16-17, 2013.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.313 today. That surpassed the old daily record +2.942 from 1992.

On May 10 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.042 (RMM). The May 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.984 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal).

 

 

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Most of tonight's computer guidance appears to be coming a tad bit warmer than at 12Z. May 20th-22nd will depend on the exact position of the Bermuda high but barring any b-door front it looks very warm to perhaps hot. And most of the models earlier indicated more very warn to possibly hot weather towards the last week of the month.

WX/PT

gfs_z500_mslp_us_33.png

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20 hours ago, bluewave said:

Almost a week now that this cutoff has been stuck under the near record 588 dm block. So more of the same for our area. Clouds and 60s near the shore today with onshore flow.  Record heat potential well into the 80s over the interior Northeast. 
 

7EBE51DA-3FCF-4C22-937B-8582697B675A.jpeg.f4c8bb3d15fde2af2d45c7121873880d.jpeg
9D367A47-9A48-4E16-944F-C93ACAC52605.thumb.png.2bf93f46d2ddef0799f0ded6fbbd063e.png

F805E457-7C83-40F3-93AB-621C9320E4C5.thumb.png.dc10328879908707f31087a1a28df14b.png

 

It was actually sunny for most of the day, that low is far away from us.

 

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17 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is a much weaker version of the May 2020 over the top heatwave. That one produced the May all-time high of 95° at BTV while we were much cooler. So record heat directed to our NW is becoming more common with these record 500 mb ridges. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/28/montreal-record-may-heat/

 

Didn't it snow here in May 2020?

 

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8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under variably cloudy skies, temperatures again rose into the 70s across much of the region. Record heat again prevailed from the Midwest into Canada. Records included:

Bangor: 85° (old record: 83°, 1991)
Burlington: 89° (old record: 84°, 2004)
Caribou: 81° (old record: 78°, 1992)
Eau Claire, WI: 94° (old record: 92°, 1900)
Madison: 93° (old record: 86°, 1991) ***Earliest heatwave on record***
Moline, IL: 95° (old record: 94°, 1956)
Montreal: 86° (old record: 81°, 1992)
Ottawa: 85° (old record: 82°, 1992)
Plattsburgh, NY: 85° (old record: 83°, 1956)
Quebec City: 81° (old record: 76°, 2016)
Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 75° (old record: 70°, 2016)
Rockford, IL: 93° (old record: 88°, 1896)
Sherbrooke, QC: 86° (old record: 66°, 2006)
St. Louis: 93° (old record: 92°, 1956)
Syracuse: 85° (old record: 84°, 1985, 1993, and 2014)
Trois-Rivières: 85° (old record: 71°, 2012)

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some showers. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures will likely reach the 70s on both days during the weekend. However, record-challenging or record-breaking temperatures will stay to the north and west of the region.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +32.80 today. That was a May record 3rd consecutive day with an SOI figure at or above +30.00. The old record was set during May 9-10, 2000 and tied during May 27-28, 2010 and May 16-17, 2013.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.313 today. That surpassed the old daily record +2.942 from 1992.

On May 10 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.042 (RMM). The May 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.984 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal).

 

 

wow 1992 was the coolest summer in my memory

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and mild. There could be some fog and also some showers. Most of the day will be dry. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 75°

The weekend could start with another mainly cloudy day, but partial sunshine is likely on Sunday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 70.7°; 15-Year: 71.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 71.8°; 15-Year: 72.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.6°; 15-Year: 74.3°

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It was actually sunny for most of the day, that low is far away from us.

 

The main feature with a cutoff to our south is easterly flow. So we had clouds in the morning with sun in the afternoon and fog by the evening. It finally lifts north the next few days with some scattered showers as the low moves to our west. So the warm spots in NJ will see some 80s from Sunday into Monday with SW flow.

Next weekend could be the first 90s of the season for the usual warm spots. We had one cooler run at 12z yesterday. But the 0z guidance is back to the warmer idea. 

 

91F3CB02-1527-4903-9EE6-56A09FA486DA.thumb.png.e40af8cd3aabcf331b29edbff6b00f64.png

5E437ACE-CCF5-455C-896A-46DEE408CCDE.thumb.png.20a347e6606b7f1d0301fce37decbc51.png

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(59/78) or +5.

Month to date is  58.0[-2.7].        Should be  62.4[+0.4] by the 21st.

Reached 69 here yesterday.

Today: 65-70, wind e., cloudy, fog early,60 by tomorrow AM.

HW Warning on again for May 20, 21, 22.    Near 100x3???     Short, but spectacular---like May 19, 1962?

60*(99%RH) here at 7am, Fog<0.5mi.        62*/63* at 10am and still foggy.     68* at Noon, fog lifted.

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On 5/11/2022 at 10:32 AM, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1Besides the stout Niña, look at how strongly negative the PDO and PMM are. Given the strong -IOD expected, I wonder if we may see an unprecedented 3rd year strong La Niña event? 

This Is the first time we had such a negative  April anomaly following a second-year La Niña. 


https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2022-enso-update-piece-cake

At -1.1 °C, April 2022 was tied with 1950 for the strongest negative April anomaly in the 1950–present record. That’s according to ERSSTv5, our most reliable long-term sea surface temperature observationdataset.

In the context of repeat La Niña events, the April average anomaly was noticeably stronger than any of the other 8 second-year La Niñas.

Line graph of evolution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature for all 2-year La Niña events
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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't it snow here in May 2020?

 

Yes. Pictures came up on my memories on my phone the other day.  It ripped for a few minutes late at night, after midnight and again during the daylight.  It was nuts.

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17 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Yes. Pictures came up on my memories on my phone the other day.  It ripped for a few minutes late at night, after midnight and again during the daylight.  It was nuts.

My pool was getting opened that afternoon while it was snowing.  

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The most extreme heat record with this May over the top heatwave was the new May all-time high temperature of 96° at Traverse City, Michigan.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
0127 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2022

...RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TRAVERSE CITY MI...
...DAILY RECORDS SET AT TRAVERSE CITY, GAYLORD, AND PELLSTON...

YESTERDAY, CHERRY CAPITAL AIRPORT IN TRAVERSE CITY HAD A HIGH OF 96 
DEGREES. THIS SETS THE ALL-TIME WARMEST TEMPERATURE IN THE MONTH OF 
MAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 95 HAS BEEN REACHED FOUR TIMES 
PREVIOUSLY IN MAY, MOST RECENTLY ON MAY 29 2018.

THIS ALSO SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR YESTERDAYS DATE, MAY 12, 
WHICH WAS 86 DEGREES, SET IN 1944.

THIS IS ALSO THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR IN WHICH TRAVERSE CITY HAS HIT 
95 DEGREES OR WARMER. THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST 95 READING WAS ON MAY 20 
1977.

OTHER RECORDS BROKEN YESTERDAY...

THE GAYLORD REGIONAL AIRPORT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES 
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 84 DEGREES SET 
BACK IN 1991. 

THE PELLSTON AIRPORT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES YESTERDAY. 
THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 87 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2004.

 

 

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Swan song the next 36 hours for the pesty cut off.  Then looking like the building warmth spreads east post Tue (5/17).  Will be tracking our first 90s of the season potentially by later next week as others have been on for a while now.

 

Till then more clouds in the way kind of weather.  Sat looks dry though,

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

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Sun trying to break though here-wonder if we end up with more sun today than forecast just like the past couple of days.
That sun is strong. Trying hard to burn through

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Heat is coming and storms as well. 

Monday looks interesting. 90s after the 20th. 

If we can keep winds from a westerly direction late week we should be off to the races. Probably mid 90s in the hotter areas given how hot the source region is. But we need the ridge to make a good push east or the threat of the back door front will be around. If the trough keeps getting stuck over the Maritimes you can never count on extended warmth this time of year. But two straight weeks pretty much of easterly winds have to come to an end. Right? :unsure: 

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our highest dewpoints of the season so far. 

MacArthur/ISP  CLOUDY    74  65  73 SE7       

Yeah the soupy dews are definitely back.  Last night was muggy.  Finally time to put away the flannel sheets until the fall!

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53 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Yeah the soupy dews are definitely back.  Last night was muggy.  Finally time to put away the flannel sheets until the fall!

Getting some elevated convection south of us now.

 

7C00E01E-625F-44C5-9010-D03E50A5D12E.thumb.jpeg.152407474d22d9e3377c115b955ff873.jpeg

 

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