May 2022

[nycwinter]

27 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Let’s start pumping water temps too

nice comfortable temps to start next week in the northeast...

[LoboLeader1]

74 here currently.

[jm1220]

43 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Just what so many don’t need with energy prices through the roof. Luckily I’m directly on the water on south shore LI 

Eventually with enough onshore wind days building up the water temps, the seabreeze won’t cool it down after another month or so. It’ll keep temps down a little but pump the humidity up. So if anything it might feel hotter near the shore vs inland because of the higher dew points which are becoming much more common the last few summers. 

[lee59]

At this point my projected high on Saturday is 86. The beginning of next week has highs only in the upper 60s

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The latest EPS continues the warmer SE Ridge pattern right into early June. 
 

 

Welcome to summer. 80s will be the norm but 90F+ days will be around too 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Welcome to summer. 80s will be the norm but 90F+ days will be around too 

People will be able to save money now since they won’t have to pay for weather model subscriptions to access the long range EPS.

 

[Rmine1]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Eventually with enough onshore wind days building up the water temps, the seabreeze won’t cool it down after another month or so. It’ll keep temps down a little but pump the humidity up. So if anything it might feel hotter near the shore vs inland because of the higher dew points which are becoming much more common the last few summers. 

Agree, but I’ll take what I can. Even if that means losing beach days to the June gloom. 

[forkyfork]

radar looks healthy for tonight

[donsutherland1]

Showers and periods of rain are likely overnight into early tomorrow. Clouds will break later tomorrow and readings will climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is in store for the weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. New York City and Newark could see the mercury rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +15.03 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.613 today.

On May 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.440 (RMM). The May 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.686 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

[BucksCO_PA]

Record May max temp at Philadelphia is 97 set during the epic 1991 torch. Heat came early & often that year, (21) 90 days before the start of calendar summer. (5) of those days were 95+ & (1) 100 day for good measure.

Since 1990 the avearge date of the 1st 90 at PHL is 5/23, 1st 95 average date is 6/26.

[CIK62]

Check back Monday and see how your favorite model made out.    As of latest runs available this evening.

Some color to go with the forecasts.      For the GFS:      Looks like 20*C+ briefly for the 850mb T:

         Sat/Sun

GFS    98,96

CMC   95,93

NDFD 92,90

NBM   91,89

ICON  88,89

EURO  87,74

[winterwarlock]

56 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Check back Monday and see how your favorite model made out.    As of latest runs available this evening.

Some color to go with the forecasts.      For the GFS:      Looks like 20*C+ briefly for the 850mb T:

         Sat/Sun

GFS    98,96

CMC   95,93

NDFD 92,90

NBM   91,89

ICON  88,89

EURO  87,74

The Euro is psycho

[SI Mailman]

Mets playing in Denver this weekend.  It's going to be 60 degrees warmer here on Saturday.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

This weekend looks like a scorcher but it is interesting to note the differences in temperature on the 00Z 5/19 NAM FOUS as of 12Z Saturday with PHL being the hottest BTV the second hottest, then ALB, then LGA with BOS being the coolest.

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

Why can’t we take it seriously? It reached 102° at the end of June in Corona Queens. So the 103° at Newark reflected it being a degree warmer in NE NJ than Queens. 

That's a built up highly urban area.  You literally can't breathe the air there because everything is so clustered together and so polluted.  Asthma rates through the roof in that part of Queens too, I think it has the highest asthma rates in the entire country.  It's not a "natural" environment to live in.  Not to mention that 100+ is extremely rare in the city, the last time it legitimately happened was back in our extremely hot summer of 1966.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The GEM has the most extreme temperature gradient of all. Strong sea breeze and cooler temperatures east of the Hudson. Has highs of 95-100° in NJ.

 

I highly doubt it's that extreme.  Looks like Central Park is forecast to reach 90 both days of the weekend, and we'll probably get to 80 near JFK.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, forkyfork said:

fingers crossed

That's what I think it likely too, near 100 over interior NJ, low 90s in NYC and low 80s on Long Island.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if somebody in NJ can record their first 100° day in May on Saturday. Models have 850 mb temperatures around +21 C. This is about as high as we ever saw the 850s this early in the season.The temperature differential between low 70s  in Long Beach and upper 90s to near 100° in NJ is as extreme as it gets.

 

How is this different from May 1996?  It was about that extreme then too.

And what about the April 2002 heatwave?

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Rain will end this morning. The clouds will break from west to east this afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania will see temperatures top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 70°

Philadelphia: 78°

The weekend will likely see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 72.1°; 15-Year: 72.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 73.4°; 15-Year: 74.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.2°; 15-Year: 75.8°

[LoboLeader1]

53 here as of 6AM, hopefully this rain will knock down the pollen count.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  72degs.(62/83) or +7.

Month to date is  60.7[-0.8].        Should be  64.2[+1.6] by the 27th.

Reached 69 here yesterday.    

Today: 63-67, wind s. to n.w.,rain early, m. cloudy with breaks?, 62* tomorrow AM.    Possible high T ranges for the weekend:

Sat.             Sun.   

92-99        89-91

Deduct 10 to 20 degrees if you are near JFK, or in a similar environment.

56*(96%RH) here at 7am{was 55 at 6am.}       59* at Noon.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.21" of rain so far today.

Current temp 54

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Picked up 1.21" of rain so far today.

Current temp 54

I got exactly the same, 1.21.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

You have to remember the resolution of those forecast maps is very coarse. So we post them for approximations of where the warmest and coolest temperatures will be found. That’s why the NWS generates MOS numbers to correct some of those biases. But the MOS  can also struggle with extreme events like Saturday. So we use past experience with the similar 850 mb temperatures and wind directions. The 850 mb temperatures will be near the all-time May highs in this area around +21 to +22 C. This would support upper 90s to near 100° In NJ away from the sea breeze.

Then we try to figure out how the sea breeze will influence the highs further east. Long Beach may be in the 70s while  Commack is getting close to 90°. JFK would probably be in between those readings into the 80s.

The  Central Park temperatures need to factor in the wind direction and the dense vegetation around the sensor. The models don’t know that the sensor is in the deep shade. So the forecast highs are usually warm biased. It could be one of those situations where the models have low 90s but the high gets stuck in the upper 80s. Especially if the flow stays SSE. But more SSW flow could make it to 90°. NYC has been famous for upper 80s while surrounding areas record 90s. 

Thanks Chris, so would you say this event would be roughly comparable to May 1996, like the April 2002 extreme heat was comparable to April 1976?  Interesting that 2002 had the much hotter summer-- one of our hottest as a matter of fact!

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

You have to remember the resolution of those forecast maps is very coarse. So we post them for approximations of where the warmest and coolest temperatures will be found. That’s why the NWS generates MOS numbers to correct some of those biases. But the MOS  can also struggle with extreme events like Saturday. So we use past experience with the similar 850 mb temperatures and wind directions. The 850 mb temperatures will be near the all-time May highs in this area around +21 to +22 C. This would support upper 90s to near 100° In NJ away from the sea breeze.

Then we try to figure out how the sea breeze will influence the highs further east. Long Beach may be in the 70s while  Commack is getting close to 90°. JFK would probably be in between those readings into the 80s.

The  Central Park temperatures need to factor in the wind direction and the dense vegetation around the sensor. The models don’t know that the sensor is in the deep shade. So the forecast highs are usually warm biased. It could be one of those situations where the models have low 90s but the high gets stuck in the upper 80s. Especially if the flow stays SSE. But more SSW flow could make it to 90°. NYC has been famous for upper 80s while surrounding areas record 90s. 

Didn't we have something like this in April 2010, the day we had our earliest 90 degree reading....NYC reached 92 while JFK hit 89 and Long Beach was only in the upper 60s?  The models underdid that heat!

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be an onshore flow warm up with a sharp temperature gradient between NJ and the Long Island South Shore. May 1996 was and offshore flow event with Newark and Minolta Long Island reaching 99°. So this is the benchmark for extreme May heat across the area. There  were a few COOP sites in NJ that hit 100°. But no major sites that I was able to find.

 

Monthly Data for May 1996 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	99
NY	MINEOLA 1 NE	COOP	99
NY	OCEANSIDE	COOP	98
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	98
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	98
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	97
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	97
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	97
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	97
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	97
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	97
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	97
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	96
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	96
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	96
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	96
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	96
NJ	WAYNE	COOP	96
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	96
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	96
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	96
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	95
NY	WEST NYACK	COOP	95
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	95

 

Monthly Data for May 1996 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
PA	PALMERTON	COOP	100
NJ	PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	100
NJ	TOMS RIVER	COOP	99
NJ	PEMBERTON	COOP	98
NJ	PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO	COOP	98
PA	PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE	COOP	97

I feel like May 1996 was the last remnant of the hot summer of 1995, because after that it was just humid warm weather, we didn't even hit 90 again until the last day of August.  In August 1995 we didn't have any measurable rain until the last day of August.  Such radically different summers.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could be similar to 1996 away from the sea breeze in NJ. But the flow will be more onshore for our area. That event had westerly flow right out to Eastern Long Island. 
 

Saturday continues to look like easily the hottest day of the
stretch. 850mb temperatures rise to around +19 to +22C, and the H5
height hits an impressive 590 dam. These are near the maximum values
recorded in the regional area for this time of year per SPC sounding
climatology. With large scale subsidence in place, it also looks
like we will see abundant sunshine to fully take advantage of this
environment. Little change was made to the temperature forecast,
which is a high confidence forecast as evidenced by there being only
2 to 3 degrees of spread between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles.
Highs in the mid to locally upper 90s are expected, at or above
daily records and in some cases near all time May monthly records.

Looks like urban areas could be in the 90s on Sunday too?

[dmillz25]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like urban areas could be in the 90s on Sunday too?

I could see the Park being warmer on Sunday than Saturday honestly. 92 Saturday and 94 Sunday would be my guess

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I could see the Park being warmer on Sunday than Saturday honestly. 92 Saturday and 94 Sunday would be my guess

delayed frontal passages remind me of the 90s, 1993 was full of those, that's why those summers were so hot

 

[dWave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like urban areas could be in the 90s on Sunday too?

I noticed some forecasts have gone in that direction. Not everyone though, for what it's worth I was watching ch 7 this morn Sam Champion sounded skeptical of that. NWS forecasts for me in the middle of the Bx has went to 91 on Sat and 92 on Sun. Their rain chances on Sun have dropped to 30% as well.