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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Recent flow on the Carrabassett River at North Anson (near where it empties into the Kennebec.)

Most recent instantaneous value: 639 05-14-2022   13:00 EDT

 
Graph of

No precip at all, and those "bumps" resemble diurnal snowmelt surges.  From Sugarloaf snowmaking trails?  (Gauge is 30 river miles downstream from "Loaf trails, no other snow in 'Bassett watershed.  Saddleback drains into the Androscoggin system.)

This last 8 days of hot sunny afternoons has caused highly accelerated snow melt out of the mountains.

Can see Mansfield's depth falling off a cliff the past 8 days.  Lost like 2.5 feet of snow depth during this time.  It's in free fall now.

Last weekend there was still natural snow in spots down to 2,500ft (I even skied in the trees up high last weekend)... gone now.  And that snow is very water rich at the bottom of the pack... just glaciated stuff.  The water draining Mansfield behind my place has been decent flow despite no rainfall and low RH.  It has to be snow melt.

Stake.jpg.9e12ca29f2239b15c506a47ac8ead6af.jpg

 

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23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This last 8 days of hot sunny afternoons has caused highly accelerated snow melt out of the mountains.

Can see Mansfield's depth falling off a cliff the past 8 days.  Lost like 2.5 feet of snow depth during this time.  It's in free fall now.

Last weekend there was still natural snow in spots down to 2,500ft (I even skied in the trees up high last weekend)... gone now.  And that snow is very water rich at the bottom of the pack... just glaciated stuff.  The water draining Mansfield behind my place has been decent flow despite no rainfall and low RH.  It has to be snow melt.

Stake.jpg.9e12ca29f2239b15c506a47ac8ead6af.jpg

 

Is some of this because that late season upslope you guys got didn't have as much staying power as a true seasonal pack would?

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58 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Is some of this because that late season upslope you guys got didn't have as much staying power as a true seasonal pack would?

No I think it's just the record highs we've been having.  That late season upslope was very dense, QPF rich stuff.  Bullets, needles and graupel.  Certainly no fluff.

We've had a few daily record highs in the area over the past week.  That'll usually do it this time of year.  Instead of sitting 40s and 50s the summit has been hitting 70F almost daily.

In my experience, and the annual graphs show it, the snowpack tries to hold on for as long as possible but every year it hits a point where it just falls off a cliff.  It rarely melts at the "average line" pace, it's usually much steeper than the average depth for whatever reason.  Like whenever the first real "summer" warmth pattern moves in.

In 2020 that May heat moved in about a week later, but same pitch of decline.  Just depends how long into the spring we can get before we get that heat.  May 2020 also saw like 5 feet of snow disappear in like 10 days.

Stake2.jpg.25fd83a650c057b1cd82ede60c7a1a93.jpg

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Position?

I can play first base , pitcher or outfield . I’d rather first base , for this team . Just got to be patient w slow pitch  , leg drive ,  hands back and inside ball  , hip rotation , accelerate thru Contact . Tip cap to milfs .

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Strange to have this good of consensus for big heat next Saturday.

mayforecastheat.gif

It is, but I'm not liking the ens mean behavior. 

All three, EPS, GEFs and GEPs, have repositioned the accompanying 500 mb non-hydrostatic height axis some 200 to 300 clicks E of previous longitudinal fix, spanning the last three or four consecutive 12 hr run cycles. The trend is so coherent it almost looks like a progressive single model run...

If it goes another two of those intervals, we end with a fast cool front and pancaked ridge mooshed S of DAY-PHL.

The GGEM actually is the one guidance out of the three oper. version that's appears to have to balls to project a hint toward that possibility. Look Utica while Boston's in the 90s. 

I mentioned yesterday that the telecon was tepid for a heat signal then, and they still are.   I guess all these aspects don't lend confidence.   Not saying it won't tend the other way, but there's this hell bent obsession in the models to fire hose a Pac jet across the country like it's nearing Xmas. It's not really conducive to heat domes.   Maybe it's just ends up a potent warm sector with typical failed convective threat. 

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