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3/12 Event: Winters Last Hurrah at Least East of Mountains

Weather Will

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1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

Zone forecast for Purcellville just went to 3 to 5 inches of snow. Seems WAY bullish by NWS.

I am thinking 1 to 3 at best! That seems to line up with the LWX Winter maps. Not sure why the Local went so high.


Saturday: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

Be sure to take a long jebwalk and pile that snow way up! Post pics or it never happened!

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Presence of a deepening MAUL (moist absolutely unstable layer) on these forecast soundings makes me think the wind gust potential will overperform here. Cold advection powerful enough to produce that usually has no issues in transporting momentum to the surface. Also, the frontal slope gradient is so sharp, it's very possible that ptype flips earlier and stays sleet longer than forecast.

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

       Definitely faster with the arrival of the cold air, which is key.    Mid 20s for most by early afternoon Saturday.

That seems to be the most notable trend across all models from what I see. Dare I speculate this could sneak its way to an area-wide 2-4" event? In any event, with the wind and temperature drop it's shaping up to feel brutal out starting late morning in the merto areas. 

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