2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[mappy]

Pouring now

[GATECH]

Firehose treatment for the heart of dc and straight down the Potomac…glad I didn’t water the grass today.

[Kmlwx]

Some really nice lightning and thunder here now. Loud cracks and rolling rumbles following. Let's see how long these training lines setup for and if they stay over the same general areas. Could be a long night for local first responders. 

[GATECH]

Outside a tropical system, I can’t really recall a straight north to south storm movement scenario in the past like we are seeing today…very unique

[Kmlwx]

Flood warning for chunk of DC metro (including DC proper) 

[Maestrobjwa]

Can't make this up...

[MN Transplant]

7 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Outside a tropical system, I can’t really recall a straight north to south storm movement scenario in the past like we are seeing today…very unique

It looks like the inverse of the Lee remnants from 2011 (obligatory @mattie gtag)

[Kmlwx]

Looks like this N/S line is lined up roughly with the front. 

[Rtd208]

[aldie 22]

Just enough rain 

[WeatherShak]

Outside a tropical system, I can’t really recall a straight north to south storm movement scenario in the past like we are seeing today…very unique

I said the said thing earlier! Was wild watching storms roll out out of due north.

[Eskimo Joe]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=394&yr=2022

Quote

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening depicts
rapidly expanding shower and thunderstorm coverage across the
Mid-Atlantic. This convection is developing along three distinct
boundaries: a cold front approaching from the northwest, a
stationary front wavering across the Mid-Atlantic, and an 850mb
confluence axis/trough. The primary focus is likely to become
oriented from N-S across central MD, including the I-95 corridor,
as easterly flow from the Atlantic and westerly flow from the warm
sector over the Appalachians converges into the stationary
boundary. This is likely already occurring as noted by a rapid
intensification in reflectivity along the boundary within
impressive PWs measured by the 00Z U/A soundings at KWAL and KIAD
of 1.89 and 2.12 inches, respectively, near or above daily records

 

[Kmlwx]

CLAM2 stream gauge is already seeing rises (as to be expected) with the heavy rain overhead. 

[North Balti Zen]

34 minutes ago, mappy said:

Pouring now

Just…

not a drop here. Still.

[Maestrobjwa]

Got some consolation prize rain now...heavy for all of 2 mins. My goodness this is awful

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Just…

not a drop here. Still.

I feel ya. And I'm sorry for ya brother...I'm sure you have some leftover angst from winter after going to higher elevations! It'll turn around...

[Kmlwx]

Rain intensity much lower now - band has weakened a good bit. Though it seems more activity will be off and on into the night. 

[mattie g]

The previous couple pages have been painful reading, but I guess the woes and complaints have paid off.

[mattie g]

32 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

It looks like the inverse of the Lee remnants from 2011 (obligatory @mattie gtag)

It does.

And I’m sitting here not at all lamenting being on the edge of that training running through DC. F that.

[jewell2188]

6 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Woof

I can confirm extensive tree/power line damage in and around warrenton/northern fauquier county. The wind was unreal. Probably the worse I’ve experienced in this area. Ironically I think a lot of us slept on the severe threat compared the the flood threat. But today I’d say we over performed in the severe category. Maybe not area wide but today produced significant damage locally. 

[mattskiva]

Stuck in between the two training areas all day, lots of distant thunder but only about 0.25" here.  3" showing up on precip maps 10 miles to my west and 15 miles to the east of here.

 

[aldie 22]

5 hours ago, mattskiva said:

Stuck in between the two training areas all day, lots of distant thunder but only about 0.25" here.  3" showing up on precip maps 10 miles to my west and 15 miles to the east of here.

 

Yeah we got just enough 

[BlizzardNole]

Managed 0.64 which is decent but was hoping for 1.0 for the dry ground.  Much heavier amounts close by in all directions.  That's Germandesert in summer!

[calm_days]

11 hours ago, GATECH said:

Outside a tropical system, I can’t really recall a straight north to south storm movement scenario in the past like we are seeing today…very unique

yes;

Some of the aspects of the overall pattern can be seen in these water vapor images i think!!

https://i.imgur.com/T4svC8I.mp4

https://i.imgur.com/2Jcm0SS.mp4

 

copy and paste link for fullscreen or click for a smaller view that can be expanded!

 

[GATECH]

1.31” since yesterday.  Not bad, the grass will live another day or 2

[jac_not_in_dc]

According to https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours, I got 1.47" on the south side of Capitol Hill, but two blocks from me got 1.95". That was a sharp gradient.

 

[Kmlwx]

Strong CIPS signal in the extended panels at 168hrs

[Kmlwx]

HR132 from the 12z CIPS run. 

[George BM]

Causally looking at Saturday and the early/mid week timeframe next week for local severe chances.

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, George BM said:

Causally looking at Saturday and the early/mid week timeframe next week for local severe chances.

LWX has been watching this afternoon is a storm or two can break through the low odds. 

We are right about the time when our severe events get less widespread and more spotty (but can still pack major punches). These types of severe events tend to be harder to diagnose/see from farther out. I'm definitely watching the weekend. July tends to need a big time trigger to do widespread severe...otherwise it's the kind of storms that blow up nice and tall but collapse after a short time. Lottery odds...if you get under one you could get minivan sized hail for a few mins before the storm kills itself.