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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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53 minutes ago, mattie g said:

That's confusing. I think they mean that there's a slight chance early on, then 90% chance of rain later with a chance of storms.

Right? It was an armageddon forecast early this AM, they tempered it somewhat in the late morning disco update and midday grid forecast, and now it's back to this morning's grid since the watch was issued. Odd, given that conditions seemed to support increased chance of severe throughout the day.

 

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6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Severe in Mid Atlantic meaning to me: 

Today there's a chance I won't have to water my garden. Severe around here is like last night. Some random cell produces a micro burst. Organized widespread Severe has happened like twice in my 43 years of life here.

Severe is pretty much always an IMBY game.  

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
248 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia...
  Central Fauquier County in northern Virginia...
  North central Culpeper County in northern Virginia...

* Until 330 PM EDT.

* At 247 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
  Sperryville, or 14 miles north of Culpeper, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Warrenton, Bealeton, New Baltimore, Opal, Washington, Viewtown,
  Hackleys Crossroads, Amissville, Jeffersonton, Orlean, Turnbull,
  Five Forks, Rock Mills and Airlie.

 

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Flood Watch for i95 corridor from Prince William to Cecil until 8pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
307 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

DCZ001-MDZ006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ052>054-506-030000-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0006.220602T1907Z-220603T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and
Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-
Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas
Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Elkton, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington,
Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Damascus, Falls Church, Silver Spring,
Bethesda, Chantilly, Centreville, Sterling, College Park,
Reisterstown, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt,
Germantown, Leesburg, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville,
Jarrettsville, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge,
Gaithersburg, Severn, Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria,
Clinton, Glen Burnie, Ashburn, Ellicott City, Woodbridge,
Washington, Annandale, Franconia, Cockeysville, Lisbon, Laurel, and
Aberdeen
307 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including
  the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland,
  Anne Arundel, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and
  Southeast Montgomery, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford,
  Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast
  Harford and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia,
  Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax and
  Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - A strong surface trough has settled over the I 95 corridor
    and has become the focus for the formation of strong
    thunderstorms. PWs greater than 1.7 inches combined with the
    potential for training storms capable of producing 2 to 3
    inches per hour may lead to an increased threat for flash
    flooding over the more urban areas along the I-95 corridor.
    One to two inches of rain are likely within training storms
    with locally higher amounts around 4 inches are possible.
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The Loudoun complex/cell bears watching as well. Nothing severe - but there may be a developing wind signature on that - 35-40mph range for now. But that may be organizing further. Will be interesting to see how it interacts with the outflow from the storms to the SE of it. 

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@H2O @mattie g incoming

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
322 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern Fairfax County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia...
  Central Prince William County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Manassas in northern Virginia...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 322 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bull Run, or
  near Centreville, moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Centreville, Annandale, Springfield, Fort Belvoir, Lake Ridge,
  Burke, Linton Hall, Lincolnia, Lorton, Franconia, Bull Run,
  Newington, I395 and I495 Interchange, Manassas, West Springfield,
  Sudley, Manassas Park, Fairfax Station, North Springfield and
  Ravensworth.
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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The Loudoun complex/cell bears watching as well. Nothing severe - but there may be a developing wind signature on that - 35-40mph range for now. But that may be organizing further. Will be interesting to see how it interacts with the outflow from the storms to the SE of it. 

And it just got warned

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
325 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  West central Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  Central Loudoun County in northern Virginia...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 325 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Purcellville,
  or 7 miles northwest of Leesburg, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Leesburg, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Poolesville, Ashburn,
  Countryside, Purcellville, Round Hill, Belmont, Hamilton,
  Barnesville, Hillsboro, Paeonian Springs, Waterford, Lucketts,
  Dickerson, Beallsville, Dawsonville, Lincoln and Hughesville.
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frederick fringe in progress, but central moco looks outstanding.  will see if the hagerstown cells make it past catoctin.  otherwise, forecast is looking pretty solid so far.  the focus still south and east towards dc/bmore.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

the ProbSevere placefile that @Eskimo Joe has shared before is printing out abnormally high values for some of these cells. Have gotten used to them staying under 30% most days. 

Can you link me to that?  I forgot to bookmark it when he had posted that before

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