yoda Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Afternoon discussion from LWX about our next chance of severe on Thursday LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A strong cold front will dive southeastward from the Lower Great Lakes, across the eastern Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic region Thursday into Thursday night. A large amount of instability expected ahead of the front. Mid and upper level energy will be joined by a strong jet aloft to set the stage for potential strong or damaging thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. SPC currently has the eastern three-quarters of our region in a 15% threat for severe weather. There are timing issues once again as to when the strongest thunderstorms develop and move through the region. The GFS is 12 to 18 hours faster than both the NAM and EURO deterministic models. The GFS has the main event from mid-morning through late afternoon Thursday. The NAM and EURO have it mid- afternoon through about midnight. Nonetheless, whichever model you believe, the instability ahead of the front and the lift from the surface front, mid-level energy and jet aloft could cause for an active Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be a couple degrees above average, reaching the middle 80s with humid conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31 Author Share Posted May 31 CIPS has a few heavy hitter events sprinkled in the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 Wonder if we get a day two enhanced? What's the main fail method with this severe event and what should we look for in the models to determine if the threat is looking more threatening or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31 Author Share Posted May 31 19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Wonder if we get a day two enhanced? What's the main fail method with this severe event and what should we look for in the models to determine if the threat is looking more threatening or not. Mid-level lapse rates suck on the NAM. Timing could also adjust since we are several days out. NAM does give us sunshine that morning (for now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 Mount Holly's latest take on the severe threat for Thursday- With stalled frontal boundary remaining situated over the region, there will likely be an appreciable temperature gradient once again with cooler highs in the upper 70s for the northern half of the region and upper 80s to near 90 south of the front. The front will attempt to move northward as a warm front ahead of the incoming shortwave trough and attendant surface low. The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms remains south of the front, which looks to be mostly south of the PA Turnpike and AC Expressway (Philadelphia suburbs southward). The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for Severe Weather south of Philadelphia Thursday. With CAPE values forecast to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range (perhaps upwards of 3000 J/kg MUCAPE in areas that see enough sun to the south). The greatest threats look to be hail and damaging wind with deep CAPE well above the freezing level and some modest dry air aloft leading to forecast DCAPE values from 500 to 1000 J/kg. LL shear looks to be supportive of at least some supercells initially that will morph into a broken line or QLCS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1 Author Share Posted June 1 Earlier 12z CIPS run has 5/2/2016 and 5/13/2002 in the analogs. The 2002 date was a MDT risk day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 Definitely on board with a SLGT tomorrow. Chances of multiple widespread rounds of SVR appear to have dropped a lot, but most guidance has an organized system rolling through during the late afternoon hours. With decent CAPE, good downdraft CAPE, and storm organization, there is a good chance of a bunch of wind reports. We'd need better instability and shear to get ENH. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1 Author Share Posted June 1 12z NAM nest focuses the activity south of DC 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: 12z NAM nest focuses the activity south of DC 18Z still like south of DC for multiple rounds, but it gives one round to most of us. I'd take it. HRRR is again showing a couple of rounds for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: 12z NAM nest focuses the activity south of DC Looks like an I-66 and points south kind of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Afternoon AFD from LWX suggests maybe some late night storms north of DC metro as well As we head into the overnight hours, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms over western and central PA will try to push southeastward into western and central Maryland and parts of northern West Virginia. This activity, despite being in the middle of the night, could be on the strong side. Gusty winds and hail possible with this activity. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A strong cold front dropping southeastward out of the Lower Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley will slide across our region on Thursday and pass through the region Thursday night. Morning showers and thunderstorms may fizzle some and become more isolated and weaker. However, as daytime heating evolves and the front comes closer to the mid-Atlantic region, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of and along the cold front. The more persistent and heaviest thunderstorm activity should be from mid-afternoon through mid- evening, such as 2pm to 8pm. There could be two rounds of intense showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. One would be near or east of US 15 to the Chesapeake Bay and the second would be over the western mountains that would eventually propagate eastward during the course of the early evening hours. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail. A close second in terms of threats would be flooding rains due to training thunderstorms. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out later Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should exit the area by midnight Thursday night with high pressure building in Friday and Friday night. The high pressure will lead to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures just in time for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Nocturnal thunder boomers! Yay! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 there's two types of weather we do pretty well here... 1) post-mid-latitude cyclone clouds/breezy conditions (when often times the forecast is just partly cloudy). 2) thunderstorms during or at the tail end of a stagnant, classic summer-like, swampy airmass. it's game time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 00z NAM and 00z NAM NEST look pretty good to me sim radar wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Morning AFD from LWX has an intriguing statement Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will cross the area tonight and bring some severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. High pressure returns shortly thereafter heading into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cdfnt extends southwest from a low pressure center over northeast Ohio. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area from late this morning through mid evening. Given strong instability and moderately strong mid- level flow, thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds. Main severe threat looks to be from 11 AM until 8 PM. Could see a SVR TSTM Watch issued as early as 10AM. Given mid- level flow perpendicular to sfc front, storms should be fairly progressive with storm motions around 30kt. Despite the fast flow, very localized flooding can`t be completely ruled out over the highly urbanized areas of DC to Baltimore given possibility of intense, but brief, rainfall rates. Convection should start winding down around 8PM and exit the entire area by midnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 wouldn't be a severe day without waking up to clouds/fog 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Seems clear outside, let’s see how long it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 24 minutes ago, mappy said: wouldn't be a severe day without waking up to clouds/fog Full sun here. LFG!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 24 minutes ago, mappy said: wouldn't be a severe day without waking up to clouds/fog I looked outside and saw the clouds and fog and thought it must be a severe day lol. 67 with low clouds and fog. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Full sun here. LFG!! well lucky you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesburg 04 Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 10 hours ago, Stormfly said: Nocturnal thunder boomers! Yay! I'm ready for some nocturnal emissions!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3dcg Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Repeat later today? Daughter lives a few miles south of me and said it was a wild hour or so in the early morning. I didn't hear a thing! Anne Arundel First Alert #Update | Severe Storm Damage | #Overnight | Pictures are coming in showing the destruction in Herald Harbor | Around 1:30 AM the isolated storm came through the Crownsville area causing severe damage | Crews are working to restore power | Unknown on injuries | Use extreme caution if you find a downed wire or tree into the wires 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2 Author Share Posted June 2 There still seems to be a south-favored nature of today's threat on the models. Not to say stuff isn't north of the Potomac, but I'd say best shots at something above the severe criteria is south of DC. We'll see! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 500 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0129 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 N CROWNSVILLE 39.03N 76.59W 06/02/2022 ANNE ARUNDEL MD 911 CALL CENTER TWO TREES BLEW DOWN INTO HOUSES. NUMEROUS OTHER TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN BETWEEN CROWNSVILLE AND HAROLD HARBOR. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2203648 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 sun finally trying to make an appearance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Nary a cloud in the sky in Burke. I'd like storms to hold off until after 7 so the kids can get swim practice in, but I have a feeling that's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 1 hour ago, mappy said: sun finally trying to make an appearance Yeah - was pleased to see it breakthrough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: There still seems to be a south-favored nature of today's threat on the models. Not to say stuff isn't north of the Potomac, but I'd say best shots at something above the severe criteria is south of DC. We'll see! This feels off to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: This feels off to me. Today feels like an underwhelming kind of day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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