CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: GFS sounding at 6z near DC and MBY (Columbia) is pretty nice. Strong lift maximized in the DGZ. So it may not snow for long, but it might maximize what we get (also falling at night) if the GFS is right. Considering the GFS is pretty much alone with the aggressive cold push, and it was wrong with that last storm, it is possible that the location/duration of the max precip area is not correct. It will be interesting to see the CMC and Euro, given what the ICON() just did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS sounding at 6z near DC and MBY (Columbia) is pretty nice. Strong lift maximized in the DGZ. So it may not snow for long, but it might maximize what we get (also falling at night) if the GFS is right. Give me 1-3 inches in a couple hours and i will stay up and enjoy the show. Take anything we can get at this point. Only a few weeks left before I’m hunting 70s for golf lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 The GFS is becoming what we thought it was. The GFS... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Considering the GFS is pretty much alone with the aggressive cold push, and it was wrong with that last storm, it is possible that the location/duration of the max precip area is not correct. It will be interesting to see the CMC and Euro, given what the ICON() just did. Given the RGEM, I doubt the GGEM is much different but we’ll know very soon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Considering the GFS is pretty much alone with the aggressive cold push, and it was wrong with that last storm, it is possible that the location/duration of the max precip area is not correct. It will be interesting to see the CMC and Euro, given what the ICON() just did. Doesn't it make sense that a less aggressive cold push resulting in the cold front hanging up would translate to different outcomes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Doesn't it make sense that a less aggressive cold push resulting in the cold front hanging up would translate to different outcomes? Very. But it would also make current snow progs rain in many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I’m 10 times more upset that all guidance is showing a huge rainstorm followed by a hard freeze all the way to the arctic circle destroying the surface at every ski resort right better Presidents’ Day weekend. Even out west is a mess where they’ve had little snow in a month. I can’t even find a damn place to ski that will have powder anywhere in the lower 48 next weekend. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Doesn't it make sense that a less aggressive cold push resulting in the cold front hanging up would translate to different outcomes? Possibly, but also need a wave of some significance to be riding along that boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m 10 times more upset that all guidance is showing a huge rainstorm followed by a hard freeze all the way to the arctic circle destroying the surface at every ski resort right better Presidents’ Day weekend. Even out west is a mess where they’ve had little snow in a month. I can’t even find a damn place to ski that will have powder anywhere in the lower 48 next weekend. This I can agree with. Total debacle up in New England just before the weekend. Probably upslope on sat/sun in the favored areas of the greens and whites but not enough to replace what gets crushed on Thur/fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 The gfs doesn’t understand what’s at stake here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Possibly, but also need a wave of some significance to be riding along that boundary. Gfs overestimating the cold could also be overestimating the energy along the baroclinic boundary. A warmer boundary doesn’t necessarily mean west/wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 CMC a train wreck as usual 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m 10 times more upset that all guidance is showing a huge rainstorm followed by a hard freeze all the way to the arctic circle destroying the surface at every ski resort right better Presidents’ Day weekend. Even out west is a mess where they’ve had little snow in a month. I can’t even find a damn place to ski that will have powder anywhere in the lower 48 next weekend. "... And every time I hear westerners rag on the “ice coast,” I take pride in the fact that most of them would struggle to ski it. Keeping your edge at 50 miles per hour on ice, feeling the chatter of your skis up your spine, requires more skill than taking face shots of cold-smoke powder. So, to my uncle’s question: Why would anyone ski the East? For starters, it will make you a superior skier. " Jay Bouchard from Outside Magazine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: lol ICON. Who knows, once in awhile it figures something out. We just can't know. P.S. ICON sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I failed to mention the CMC is a: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs overestimating the cold could also be overestimating the energy along the baroclinic boundary. A warmer boundary doesn’t necessarily mean west/wet. Just grasping at straws up in here, trying to spread those blues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: This I can agree with. Total debacle up in New England just before the weekend. Probably upslope on sat/sun in the favored areas of the greens and whites but not enough to replace what gets crushed on Thur/fri. I’m getting very concerned for the viability of spring skiing. March into early April is some of the best in northern New England. That’s my favorite time to hit up sugarbush, sugarloaf, Stowe and Wildcat. But their base is pathetic. Last weekend it was down to dirt and rock between the moguls at sugarbush and Killington. I got into a really dicey spot on vertigo head wall as half way down on the steepest spot there was no snow for a good 15 feet. Had to sideslide into the woods and make some tight turns to get out of that jam. If they don’t get at least several more feet they won’t last long at all once it warms. Worst part is out west is awful too. East had no snow until Jan then was cold but kinda dry. The west has been warm and dry! This spring season is at risk of being an epic fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I think the gfs was actually an improvement. What do I know? Never mind. Don’t answer that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Is this a Miller A, B, C or hybrid? Didnt see it in the thread title and no signs of fighting about it in the thread. Asking for Maestro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If I was in central Va hoping for snow I’d be nervous. Very nervous Not nervous here NW of Staunton. I think we will see accumulating snow. Most of the models keep bullseying my county or a neighboring county. Also, getting 28" last month helps. Still have snow piles otg despite 50s lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is this a Miller A, B, C or hybrid? Didnt see it in the thread title and no signs of fighting about it in the thread. Asking for Maestro Ask for @WinterWxLuvr...I officially pass the buck back, lol I did not start this...a few weeks ago I just asked one question for more clarity and the who debate blew up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: Just grasping at straws up in here, trying to spread those blues. The only blues available are the ones we sing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: "... And every time I hear westerners rag on the “ice coast,” I take pride in the fact that most of them would struggle to ski it. Keeping your edge at 50 miles per hour on ice, feeling the chatter of your skis up your spine, requires more skill than taking face shots of cold-smoke powder. So, to my uncle’s question: Why would anyone ski the East? For starters, it will make you a superior skier. " Jay Bouchard from Outside Magazine I learned skiing the east and a lot of ice. And even when conditions are good in the east you will hit a wind blasted patch of ice and need to know how to use your edges. But I’ve reached a point where I no longer feel the need to prove myself and it’s just not that much fun. Plus I scaled back and only have a pair of atomic access light weight fat all terrain skis. They don’t catch an edge very well. Too light and too wide. So I agree with the statement above wrt skill but I want to have a good time not prove to random spectators how good I am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just grasping at straws up in here, trying to spread those blues. That's the energy we need. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think the gfs was actually an improvement. What do I know? Never mind. Don’t answer that. How do you think it was an improvement, just curious to hear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just grasping at straws up in here, trying to spread those blues. Yea I’m way past any interest in grasping at straws and praying some low probability threat magically trends better inside 72 hours. The payoff on that is too low. All you get is frustration 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, Solution Man said: CMC a train wreck as usual It went from the most northwest model to practically out to sea/Miller B in a span of 3 runs. Impressively awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, paxpatriot said: It went from the most northwest model to practically out to sea/Miller B in a span of 3 runs. Impressively awful. Outside 48 hours better off just looking at the euro, Gfs and EPS GEFS then simply adjusting for bias and seasonal and pattern norms. Everything else just adds noise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: It went from the most northwest model to practically out to sea/Miller B in a span of 3 runs. Impressively awful. Thank you....not all heroes wear capes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 GEFS might be starting to narrow the goal posts a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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