BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 No more model talk, lets get these observations going! Winter storm warnings from Mexico to Canada. Here she comes! Detroit radar is out which may explain that hole over them. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... *** Winter Storm Warning in effect for the entire CWA *** A cold front extends from Lake Huron down through the Lower Ohio Valley and down into the far southern Plains late this morning. Aloft a shortwave crossing the Plains, along with a digging shortwave trough across the Southwest will aid in the formation of several waves of low pressure along this cold front, with each wave bringing a prolonged period of snow to our region. By this afternoon, surface high pressure will slip to along the New England coastline and this will allow for the slow moving upstream cold front to begin to push into our western zones. Along this lengthy cold front, both Gulf of Mexico and Pacific moisture will be pushing northward towards the Great lakes Region. Initial precipitation through the afternoon will be rain with a southerly wind, though moisture overcoming a mid level dry wedge will keep rainfall totals to less than a tenth of an inch. This combined with still low dew points and not ripened snowpack should alleviate the region from any flood concerns. By this evening cooler air in the lower levels will build across the Niagara Frontier/Saint Lawrence Valley and change the rain over to snow, this on now a northwesterly flow. This will be the start of a prolonged snow event, one without significant forcing, so more of a light to moderate snow event. Initial forcing looks to start as isentropic lift towards the west, then transition to more convergent lift as an inverted surface trough forms across our region. With this lift focused on western zones, several inches of snow will be likely tonight across the Lake Erie shoreline through the northern Niagara Frontier, as well as through the Saint Lawrence Valley. The water content will be high at the onset with sub 10:1 snow to liquid ratios as thermal profiles are just below zero Celsius in the lower atmosphere. Thursday the surface front will push towards the south and east with sufficient cold air in the lower level building to support all snow. As the cold air builds the initial wet snow will slowly become less dense with greater snow to liquid ratios. There likely will be breaks in the snow, especially towards the Finger Lakes region. Given the weak forcing snowfall amounts through the day will range from 3 to 6 inches. This combined with snow likely to increase later Thursday Night will give confidence to upgrade the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning for our entire region. Winds will remain light from the northwest to north through the day Thursday, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, greatly limited any blowing snow. It will be cooler Thursday with temperatures slowly falling through the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 45 and cloudy cold front a couple hours away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Link for this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Pretty good consensus wrt temp, 43° and partly cloudy.. Forecast high was 40°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Torching like a BO$$ here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Link for this map? Keep clicking on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 KSYR 021754Z 18008KT 10SM FEW120 SCT180 BKN250 07/M03 A3022 Mid 40s at the airport. At least the dew point is still below freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12z Euro was about as close to identical to 6z with snowfall axis and amounts as any model could be. For those of us in the S and E, we die on that hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Let's check to see if the snowfall amounts are overperforming with SLR's in Indiana and Ohio later....should give us an idea of ratios.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: No more model talk, lets get these observations going! Winter storm warnings from Mexico to Canada. Here she comes! Detroit radar is out which may explain that hole over them. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... *** Winter Storm Warning in effect for the entire CWA *** A cold front extends from Lake Huron down through the Lower Ohio Valley and down into the far southern Plains late this morning. Aloft a shortwave crossing the Plains, along with a digging shortwave trough across the Southwest will aid in the formation of several waves of low pressure along this cold front, with each wave bringing a prolonged period of snow to our region. By this afternoon, surface high pressure will slip to along the New England coastline and this will allow for the slow moving upstream cold front to begin to push into our western zones. Along this lengthy cold front, both Gulf of Mexico and Pacific moisture will be pushing northward towards the Great lakes Region. Initial precipitation through the afternoon will be rain with a southerly wind, though moisture overcoming a mid level dry wedge will keep rainfall totals to less than a tenth of an inch. This combined with still low dew points and not ripened snowpack should alleviate the region from any flood concerns. By this evening cooler air in the lower levels will build across the Niagara Frontier/Saint Lawrence Valley and change the rain over to snow, this on now a northwesterly flow. This will be the start of a prolonged snow event, one without significant forcing, so more of a light to moderate snow event. Initial forcing looks to start as isentropic lift towards the west, then transition to more convergent lift as an inverted surface trough forms across our region. With this lift focused on western zones, several inches of snow will be likely tonight across the Lake Erie shoreline through the northern Niagara Frontier, as well as through the Saint Lawrence Valley. The water content will be high at the onset with sub 10:1 snow to liquid ratios as thermal profiles are just below zero Celsius in the lower atmosphere. Thursday the surface front will push towards the south and east with sufficient cold air in the lower level building to support all snow. As the cold air builds the initial wet snow will slowly become less dense with greater snow to liquid ratios. There likely will be breaks in the snow, especially towards the Finger Lakes region. Given the weak forcing snowfall amounts through the day will range from 3 to 6 inches. This combined with snow likely to increase later Thursday Night will give confidence to upgrade the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning for our entire region. Winds will remain light from the northwest to north through the day Thursday, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, greatly limited any blowing snow. It will be cooler Thursday with temperatures slowly falling through the 20s. The key is how fast the front can swing through while a good chunk of the moisture is still to our SW. If the moisture is moving too quickly and the front hangs up then snow totals go down further. A bit concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: The key is how fast the front can swing through while a good chunk of the moisture is still to our SW. If the moisture is moving too quickly and the front hangs up then snow totals go down further. A bit concerned. Thing is - I think - the second wave is where it’s at. That’s what the NAM and GGEM show. The first wave is kinda meh but the second one can blitz us. Colder like the Euro and the heaviest snows sink just South of CNY. The euro at 12z already seems to be busting too cold by a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: Thing is - I think - the second wave is where it’s at. That’s what the NAM and GGEM show. The first wave is kinda meh but the second one can blitz us. Colder like the Euro and the heaviest snows sink just South of CNY. The euro at 12z already seems to be busting too cold by a bit. Yes temps soared quite a bit more today than I thought they would. I was under the impression the front would be close to moving through by now and a slow bleed of cold air would ensue. Now it appears the cold air won’t be far behind once the front moves through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yes temps soared quite a bit more today than I thought they would. I was under the impression the front would be close to moving through by now and a slow bleed of cold air would ensue. Now it appears the cold air won’t be far behind once the front moves through. Still rain over here in west Niagara. 38F wind still SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 33 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Thing is - I think - the second wave is where it’s at. That’s what the NAM and GGEM show. The first wave is kinda meh but the second one can blitz us. Colder like the Euro and the heaviest snows sink just South of CNY. The euro at 12z already seems to be busting too cold by a bit. Seems maybe the NW solutions may win out...we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: Seems maybe the NW solutions may win out...we shall see. wow just saw Buffalo is 44F. I was skeptical when NWS said no snow until Thursday yet EC said change over by late afternoon/early evening. Heavy rain here as well* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Yet no watch till this morning or warning now. Granted I'm worried about warmth too. If you expect 10" you put a warning out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 So judging from upstream Detroit and now Hamilton-Toronto it appears that the models were wrong with the cold air bleeding in. I think Buffalo-Niagara will struggle to reach 6" now as well. Most of that should come with the 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Critical thicknesses are all stacked up right on our doorstep but nothing really pushing it SE too fast. Going to be a long 9 hours or so of snowpack eating rain..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, DeltaT13 said: Critical thicknesses are all stacked up right on our doorstep but nothing really pushing it SE too fast. Going to be a long 9 hours or so of snowpack eating rain..... ya, its definitely slower than what we originally anticipated. How many hours you think left for Hamilton? My guess is around 5-7pm but originally I thought 2-4pm and I have to keep pushing it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Not much rain even gets into roc maybe couple tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Not much rain even gets into roc maybe couple tenths. Lucky, its pouring rain here with upper 30s and dew points mid 30s. Haven't seen a bust like this in some time. Good news is that this wasn't a typical snowstorm so the excitement never got up as high as it usually does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: ya, its definitely slower than what we originally anticipated. How many hours you think left for Hamilton? My guess is around 5-7pm but originally I thought 2-4pm and I have to keep pushing it back Probably 6-8pm, sunset will start to accelerate the fronts progress a bit as diurnal cooling lends a hand. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Great day to get a car wash, lines were insane. Hit 46 on my car thermometer. NAM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Great day to get a car wash, lines were insane. Hit 46 on my car thermometer. NAM What's the logic to getting a car wash 12 hours before it will be absolutely obliterated with salt and road slop? I could see getting it this previous Sunday when you would have gotten a few days of dry roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, DeltaT13 said: What's the logic to getting a car wash 12 hours before it will be absolutely obliterated with salt and road slop? I could see getting it this previous Sunday when you would have gotten a few days of dry roads. I saw and said the same thing to myself earlier… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: What's the logic to getting a car wash 12 hours before it will be absolutely obliterated with salt and road slop? I could see getting it this previous Sunday when you would have gotten a few days of dry roads. My car has been through a month of frigid cold, snow and ice. I did quite a bit of chasing around the area and got into some deep stuff. There was salt all over that thing and underneath. If you use that logic you should never get a carwash in winter as we usually have 3-4 months of this. Salt would eat away at the car over the course of that time period. Should I get a car wash in November and wait until March for my 2nd one? I got rid of all the salt/snow residue that accumulated on my car the last few weeks. The longer its on there the more damage it causes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: My car has been through a month of frigid cold, snow and ice. I did quite a bit of chasing around the area and got into some deep stuff. There was salt all over that thing and underneath. If you use that logic you should never get a carwash in winter as we usually have 3-4 months of this. Salt would eat away at the car over the course of that time period. Should I get a car wash in November and wait until March for my 2nd one? I got rid of all the salt/snow residue that accumulated on my car the last few weeks. The longer its on there the more damage it causes. I got mine done the other day. Something cathartic about getting all that grime off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: My car has been through a month of frigid cold, snow and ice. I did quite a bit of chasing around the area and got into some deep stuff. There was salt all over that thing and underneath. If you use that logic you should never get a carwash in winter as we usually have 3-4 months of this. Salt would eat away at the car over the course of that time period. Should I get a car wash in November and wait until March for my 2nd one? I got rid of all the salt/snow residue that accumulated on my car the last few weeks. The longer its on there the more damage it causes. Well I washed my truck when I got home from Vemont on Sunday, which gave me a few days to enjoy a clean truck and let it dry out. Just seems like if you waited until today it was too late. I'll probably wash it again this weekend after these next couple days of chasing and when we have a solid week or so before the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: I got mine done the other day. Something cathartic about getting all that grime off. Exactly this. Maybe my reasoning is off but that salt underneath my car for months on end has to do some damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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