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Feb 2-4th Snowstorm- Observation Thread


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No more model talk, lets get these observations going!

NE_Snow.png.7aae576a10ed1591b606306b4f074a9b.png

Winter storm warnings from Mexico to Canada.

US.png.5cb049847f09fe666cc2671b29412a82.png

Here she comes! Detroit radar is out which may explain that hole over them.

Static map

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** Winter Storm Warning in effect for the entire CWA ***

A cold front extends from Lake Huron down through the Lower Ohio
Valley and down into the far southern Plains late this morning.
Aloft a shortwave crossing the Plains, along with a digging
shortwave trough across the Southwest will aid in the formation
of several waves of low pressure along this cold front, with
each wave bringing a prolonged period of snow to our region.

By this afternoon, surface high pressure will slip to along the New
England coastline and this will allow for the slow moving upstream
cold front to begin to push into our western zones. Along this
lengthy cold front, both Gulf of Mexico and Pacific moisture will be
pushing northward towards the Great lakes Region. Initial
precipitation through the afternoon will be rain with a southerly
wind, though moisture overcoming a mid level dry wedge will keep
rainfall totals to less than a tenth of an inch. This combined with
still low dew points and not ripened snowpack should alleviate the
region from any flood concerns.

By this evening cooler air in the lower levels will build across the
Niagara Frontier/Saint Lawrence Valley and change the rain over to
snow, this on now a northwesterly flow. This will be the start of a
prolonged snow event, one without significant forcing, so more of a
light to moderate snow event.

Initial forcing looks to start as isentropic lift towards the west,
then transition to more convergent lift as an inverted surface
trough forms across our region. With this lift focused on western
zones, several inches of snow will be likely tonight across the Lake
Erie shoreline through the northern Niagara Frontier, as well as
through the Saint Lawrence Valley. The water content will be high at
the onset with sub 10:1 snow to liquid ratios as thermal profiles
are just below zero Celsius in the lower atmosphere.

Thursday the surface front will push towards the south and east with
sufficient cold air in the lower level building to support all snow.
As the cold air builds the initial wet snow will slowly become less
dense with greater snow to liquid ratios. There likely will be
breaks in the snow, especially towards the Finger Lakes region.
Given the weak forcing snowfall amounts through the day will range
from 3 to 6 inches. This combined with snow likely to increase later
Thursday Night will give confidence to upgrade the winter storm
watch to a winter storm warning for our entire region.

Winds will remain light from the northwest to north through the day
Thursday, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, greatly limited any blowing
snow.

It will be cooler Thursday with temperatures slowly falling through
the 20s.
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32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

No more model talk, lets get these observations going!

NE_Snow.png.7aae576a10ed1591b606306b4f074a9b.png

Winter storm warnings from Mexico to Canada.

US.png.5cb049847f09fe666cc2671b29412a82.png

Here she comes! Detroit radar is out which may explain that hole over them.

Static map

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** Winter Storm Warning in effect for the entire CWA ***

A cold front extends from Lake Huron down through the Lower Ohio
Valley and down into the far southern Plains late this morning.
Aloft a shortwave crossing the Plains, along with a digging
shortwave trough across the Southwest will aid in the formation
of several waves of low pressure along this cold front, with
each wave bringing a prolonged period of snow to our region.

By this afternoon, surface high pressure will slip to along the New
England coastline and this will allow for the slow moving upstream
cold front to begin to push into our western zones. Along this
lengthy cold front, both Gulf of Mexico and Pacific moisture will be
pushing northward towards the Great lakes Region. Initial
precipitation through the afternoon will be rain with a southerly
wind, though moisture overcoming a mid level dry wedge will keep
rainfall totals to less than a tenth of an inch. This combined with
still low dew points and not ripened snowpack should alleviate the
region from any flood concerns.

By this evening cooler air in the lower levels will build across the
Niagara Frontier/Saint Lawrence Valley and change the rain over to
snow, this on now a northwesterly flow. This will be the start of a
prolonged snow event, one without significant forcing, so more of a
light to moderate snow event.

Initial forcing looks to start as isentropic lift towards the west,
then transition to more convergent lift as an inverted surface
trough forms across our region. With this lift focused on western
zones, several inches of snow will be likely tonight across the Lake
Erie shoreline through the northern Niagara Frontier, as well as
through the Saint Lawrence Valley. The water content will be high at
the onset with sub 10:1 snow to liquid ratios as thermal profiles
are just below zero Celsius in the lower atmosphere.

Thursday the surface front will push towards the south and east with
sufficient cold air in the lower level building to support all snow.
As the cold air builds the initial wet snow will slowly become less
dense with greater snow to liquid ratios. There likely will be
breaks in the snow, especially towards the Finger Lakes region.
Given the weak forcing snowfall amounts through the day will range
from 3 to 6 inches. This combined with snow likely to increase later
Thursday Night will give confidence to upgrade the winter storm
watch to a winter storm warning for our entire region.

Winds will remain light from the northwest to north through the day
Thursday, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, greatly limited any blowing
snow.

It will be cooler Thursday with temperatures slowly falling through
the 20s.

The key is how fast the front can swing through while a good chunk of the moisture is still to our SW. If the moisture is moving too quickly and the front hangs up then snow totals go down further. A bit concerned. 

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Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

The key is how fast the front can swing through while a good chunk of the moisture is still to our SW. If the moisture is moving too quickly and the front hangs up then snow totals go down further. A bit concerned. 

Thing is - I think - the second wave is where it’s at. That’s what the NAM and GGEM show. The first wave is kinda meh but the second one can blitz us. Colder like the Euro and the heaviest snows sink just South of CNY. 

The euro at 12z already seems to be busting too cold by a bit. 
 

image.thumb.png.8e8e3b71c9712d744e2bbbfae6fdae82.png

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Just now, 96blizz said:

Thing is - I think - the second wave is where it’s at. That’s what the NAM and GGEM show. The first wave is kinda meh but the second one can blitz us. Colder like the Euro and the heaviest snows sink just South of CNY. 

The euro at 12z already seems to be busting too cold by a bit. 
 

image.thumb.png.8e8e3b71c9712d744e2bbbfae6fdae82.png

Yes temps soared quite a bit more today than I thought they would. I was under the impression the front would be close to moving through by now and a slow bleed of cold air would ensue. Now it appears the cold air won’t be far behind once the front moves through. 

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15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yes temps soared quite a bit more today than I thought they would. I was under the impression the front would be close to moving through by now and a slow bleed of cold air would ensue. Now it appears the cold air won’t be far behind once the front moves through. 

Still rain over here in west Niagara. 38F wind still SW 

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33 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Thing is - I think - the second wave is where it’s at. That’s what the NAM and GGEM show. The first wave is kinda meh but the second one can blitz us. Colder like the Euro and the heaviest snows sink just South of CNY. 

The euro at 12z already seems to be busting too cold by a bit. 
 

image.thumb.png.8e8e3b71c9712d744e2bbbfae6fdae82.png

Seems maybe the NW solutions may win out...we shall see.

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Just now, DeltaT13 said:

Critical thicknesses are all stacked up right on our doorstep but nothing really pushing it SE too fast.  Going to be a long 9 hours or so of snowpack eating rain.....

Capture.JPG.dcf0326fa015e612f32ddbc9657b3c5a.JPG

ya, its definitely slower than what we originally anticipated. How many hours you think left for Hamilton? My guess is around 5-7pm but originally I thought 2-4pm and I have to keep pushing it back 

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6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

ya, its definitely slower than what we originally anticipated. How many hours you think left for Hamilton? My guess is around 5-7pm but originally I thought 2-4pm and I have to keep pushing it back 

Probably 6-8pm, sunset will start to accelerate the fronts progress a bit as diurnal cooling lends a hand.  

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Great day to get a car wash, lines were insane. Hit 46 on my car thermometer.

NAM

snku_acc.us_ne.png

What's the logic to getting a car wash 12 hours before it will be absolutely obliterated with salt and road slop?  I could see getting it this previous Sunday when you would have gotten a few days of dry roads. 

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5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

What's the logic to getting a car wash 12 hours before it will be absolutely obliterated with salt and road slop?  I could see getting it this previous Sunday when you would have gotten a few days of dry roads. 

My car has been through a month of frigid cold, snow and ice. I did quite a bit of chasing around the area and got into some deep stuff. There was salt all over that thing and underneath. If you use that logic you should never get a carwash in winter as we usually have 3-4 months of this. Salt would eat away at the car over the course of that time period. Should I get a car wash in November and wait until March for my 2nd one? I got rid of all the salt/snow residue that accumulated on my car the last few weeks. The longer its on there the more damage it causes.

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My car has been through a month of frigid cold, snow and ice. I did quite a bit of chasing around the area and got into some deep stuff. There was salt all over that thing and underneath. If you use that logic you should never get a carwash in winter as we usually have 3-4 months of this. Salt would eat away at the car over the course of that time period. Should I get a car wash in November and wait until March for my 2nd one? I got rid of all the salt/snow residue that accumulated on my car the last few weeks. The longer its on there the more damage it causes.

I got mine done the other day. Something cathartic about getting all that grime off. 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My car has been through a month of frigid cold, snow and ice. I did quite a bit of chasing around the area and got into some deep stuff. There was salt all over that thing and underneath. If you use that logic you should never get a carwash in winter as we usually have 3-4 months of this. Salt would eat away at the car over the course of that time period. Should I get a car wash in November and wait until March for my 2nd one? I got rid of all the salt/snow residue that accumulated on my car the last few weeks. The longer its on there the more damage it causes.

Well I washed my truck when I got home from Vemont on Sunday, which gave me a few days to enjoy a clean truck and let it dry out.  Just seems like if you waited until today it was too late.  I'll probably wash it again this weekend after these next couple days of chasing and when we have a solid week or so before the next storm.

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