BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 No more model talk, lets get these observations going! Winter storm warnings from Mexico to Canada. Here she comes! Detroit radar is out which may explain that hole over them. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... *** Winter Storm Warning in effect for the entire CWA *** A cold front extends from Lake Huron down through the Lower Ohio Valley and down into the far southern Plains late this morning. Aloft a shortwave crossing the Plains, along with a digging shortwave trough across the Southwest will aid in the formation of several waves of low pressure along this cold front, with each wave bringing a prolonged period of snow to our region. By this afternoon, surface high pressure will slip to along the New England coastline and this will allow for the slow moving upstream cold front to begin to push into our western zones. Along this lengthy cold front, both Gulf of Mexico and Pacific moisture will be pushing northward towards the Great lakes Region. Initial precipitation through the afternoon will be rain with a southerly wind, though moisture overcoming a mid level dry wedge will keep rainfall totals to less than a tenth of an inch. This combined with still low dew points and not ripened snowpack should alleviate the region from any flood concerns. By this evening cooler air in the lower levels will build across the Niagara Frontier/Saint Lawrence Valley and change the rain over to snow, this on now a northwesterly flow. This will be the start of a prolonged snow event, one without significant forcing, so more of a light to moderate snow event. Initial forcing looks to start as isentropic lift towards the west, then transition to more convergent lift as an inverted surface trough forms across our region. With this lift focused on western zones, several inches of snow will be likely tonight across the Lake Erie shoreline through the northern Niagara Frontier, as well as through the Saint Lawrence Valley. The water content will be high at the onset with sub 10:1 snow to liquid ratios as thermal profiles are just below zero Celsius in the lower atmosphere. Thursday the surface front will push towards the south and east with sufficient cold air in the lower level building to support all snow. As the cold air builds the initial wet snow will slowly become less dense with greater snow to liquid ratios. There likely will be breaks in the snow, especially towards the Finger Lakes region. Given the weak forcing snowfall amounts through the day will range from 3 to 6 inches. This combined with snow likely to increase later Thursday Night will give confidence to upgrade the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning for our entire region. Winds will remain light from the northwest to north through the day Thursday, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, greatly limited any blowing snow. It will be cooler Thursday with temperatures slowly falling through the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!Register a new account
Already have an account? Sign in here.Sign In Now