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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

So, there has been a lot of speculation as to why the pattern for the beginning of March has taken such a turn since just last week. I was pretty much in agreement with much of the meteorological community that the beginning of March would be quite warm as the pattern would be breaking down. It appeared that the tropical forcing would move into unfavorable areas of the Pacific for E US winter weather, like towards the Maritime Continent.

However, that tropical forcing has become less and less of a factor in the pattern, as the amplitude of the wave looks quite low:

So, instead, there must be another pattern driver that's led to such a dramatic change in the NH waveguide. It looks like the culprit is an extratropical cyclone over the W Pacific near Japan. It will develop by the beginning of next week, and it looks to become a highly anomalous cyclone, reaching over 4 sigma below normal SLP:

This cyclone will induce an extension of the Pacific jet and anticyclonic wave breaking, which leads to the anomalous ridging over the EPO domain:

I don't think that this is a head fake, and there is the potential for a significant high-latitude blocking event. It hinges on the strength of the cyclone in the Pacific, but there is tremendous agreement between models and their ensembles, so I do think that it's a legitimate pattern driver. Something similar to this also happened with Nuri at the end of October 2014, which was also a highly anomalous N Pacific cyclone. Nuri had a tremendous impact on the pattern in November 2014 with regards to N Pacific blocking:

Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month.

Excellent post.  I always love to see you post in here, as the posts are info-filled and never random hype or downerism.

This is actually a nice change of pace.  We are usually left to try and analyze why a modelled good pattern suddenly degrades, so to see a bad pattern "degrade" is a treat.

Of course for my actual forum (the SE) this probably just means the difference between warm rain and cold rain, but I am rooting for the MA and especially the NW crew to cash in.

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3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Excellent post.  I always love to see you post in here, as the posts are info-filled and never random hype or downerism.

This is actually a nice change of pace.  We are usually left to try and analyze why a modelled good pattern suddenly degrades, so to see a bad pattern "degrade" is a treat.

Of course for my actual forum (the SE) this probably just means the difference between warm rain and cold rain, but I am rooting for the MA and especially the NW crew to cash in.

hmm, I think you guys could still be in for something too. there's going to be enough strong HP in SE Canada that you'll have some chances in NC. the 12z GFS shows how you can get there

that kind of amplified -EPO is something that's good for the entire E US

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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

hmm, I think you guys could still be in for something too. there's going to be enough strong HP in SE Canada that you'll have some chances in NC. the 12z GFS shows how you can get there

that kind of amplified -EPO is something that's good for the entire E US

Like it when you lay out the road ahead….great post.

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52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month.

12 likes? 1 trophy

Just kidding, but we have to break this La Nina pattern. PNA dominates+time, it's like a physics equation. 

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15 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I hardly know what it means but I agree 

I'm no expert, but that EPO ridge is delivering cold directly from the Arctic, and that TPV near Greenland is serving as a kind of confluential [made up word] block. Looks like there might be a hint of split flow, too, so there would be good moisture coming in from the southwest up into that cold, and since we have the confluence over the Northeast, disturbances would be unlikely to cut.

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47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

True, a lot of moisture. But, as always …C8D088EF-9C88-42FE-973D-A21C9F13FA82.thumb.jpeg.aa5e54753d839ea9117a2274db61b8ff.jpeg

That map is pretty useless anyway for the purposes of the ultimate objective. It's the total precip depicted to fall over 360 hours on a single an op run, and much of it in the MA would be rain that falls between tomorrow and the end of next week.

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Just now, CAPE said:

That map is pretty useless anyway for the purposes of the ultimate objective. It's the total precip depicted to fall over 360 hours on a single an op run, and much of it in the MA would be rain that falls between tomorrow and the end of next week.

So you're saying it's not going to snow? :(

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@mattie g @nj2va and @brooklynwx99 thanks for the explanation. I understood it was a good look based on the ridge out west and the dip out east but thanks for the more in depth explanation. Always trying to learn a bit more to be a bit less clueless. One thing I would like to ask: how good of a sign is this for storms and whatnot, and what could make this look better or is it already near a realistic perfection. 

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1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

@mattie g @nj2va and @brooklynwx99 thanks for the explanation. I understood it was a good look based on the ridge out west and the dip out east but thanks for the more in depth explanation. Always trying to learn a bit more to be a bit less clueless. One thing I would like to ask: how good of a sign is this for storms and whatnot, and what could make this look better or is it already near a realistic perfection. 

it's a good sign. there's pretty notable split flow, so this ups the risk for phasing scenarios and general storminess with the northern and southern streams mingling

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-uv200_stream-6092800.thumb.png.87925eea3c5cbf87e189f2f1347c0e40.png

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