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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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17 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

In the 80s I was witness to see it go from 80s to 20s, severe including hail and tornadoes to cold rain and then snow.  Ending up with nearly 2 feet of snow.  This was at Norman OK in mid March.  If it snows hard enough it will eventually stick as the ground cools.

April 2000 Albany was 84 or 85 and got 16 inches of snow the next day 

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2 hours ago, Scraff said:

I was busy at a work meeting at Crooked Crab Brewing. What did I miss. Everything fall apart? GFS collapse? ICON sucks? Euro blows chunks? The Canuck model is trash? Where’s the JMA? CRAS? Panasonic? Samsung? Sony? Speaking of trash… @stormtrackertrashed in Mexico?! Imma go with damn right he is!! Anyway—pick a GD model and ride that shit hard! Oh. And happy Wednesday! Cheers? Cut me the F off. :lol: Bu-bye.

Crooked Crab is the bomb. They have really grown into themselves. Was there on opening day and we actually had a decent snow that day. Made the drive home interesting.

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2 hours ago, Scraff said:

I was busy at a work meeting at Crooked Crab Brewing. What did I miss. Everything fall apart? GFS collapse? ICON sucks? Euro blows chunks? The Canuck model is trash? Where’s the JMA? CRAS? Panasonic? Samsung? Sony? Speaking of trash… @stormtrackertrashed in Mexico?! Imma go with damn right he is!! Anyway—pick a GD model and ride that shit hard! Oh. And happy Wednesday! Cheers? Cut me the F off. :lol: Bu-bye.

Hell yeah!

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2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Ninas give me an ulcer. Since I've only lived at 40N or south, they have been mostly pain for me. I am less enthused going into the season with them, but I still watch to see if something can surprise. 

100% but shockingly when I ran the numbers Nina’s are actually slightly snowier on the whole around here than every cohort except modoki ninos. Enso neutral and east based ninos are even worse!  But Nina’s feel so frustrating and I think it’s because so often Nina’s do feature  periods of sustained cold but it’s mostly a NW flow NS dominant frustrating cold pattern. When we do get cold in other enso years it has a much higher frequency of producing snow. Just my 2 cents why Nina’s feel so damn frustrating 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Just a reminder that unless the 18z euro shows an actual hit the 18z suite was a net negative.  I know how this game goes. Euro shows a slight improvement over its pathetic 12z solution and suddenly some get sucked in and we see “it’s trending better 3+ days left”. But trends in one individual model are irrelevant. It’s the trend across guidance that matters.

And right on cue the 18z Euro improves, lolol Only thing that would break the cycle we've been in is the 0z gfs making a comeback and the Euro 0z improving or at least holding!

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34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And right on cue the 18z Euro improves, lolol Only thing that would break the cycle we've been in is the 0z gfs making a comeback and the Euro 0z improving or at least holding!

it didnt improve...basically it couldnt get any worse

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36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

100% but shockingly when I ran the numbers Nina’s are actually slightly snowier on the whole around here than every cohort except modoki ninos. Enso neutral and east based ninos are even worse!  But Nina’s feel so frustrating and I think it’s because so often Nina’s do feature  periods of sustained cold but it’s mostly a NW flow NS dominant frustrating cold pattern. When we do get cold in other enso years it has a much higher frequency of producing snow. Just my 2 cents why Nina’s feel so damn frustrating 

Maybe it's just that the way ninas snow is in little spits and spurts that, on paper, can get "close to median" a la the 2017-18 winter. But in terms of actual events they are less likely to produce heavier snows. So it's kind of a net loss even if the numbers on paper show something better. In Nina’s there's still more junk in the way if ya ask me!

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18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Comparing 12z stormtracker with 18z stormtracker.  There are VAST differences. Let me tell u. 

62073DD3-034D-41AA-B230-25A0248077E2.jpeg

Definitely less separation between the northern stream drink (on the right) and the already neutrally tilted southern stream one. Looks like they definitely could phase into a much larger, more potent beverage. Especially since they are nearly empty so another glass is in order. I predict enhanced vertical motion uplifting the glass and a subsequent strong influx of booze imbibed as well. 00Z will be telling, but I like these trends! 

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4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Definitely less separation between the northern stream drink (on the right) and the already neutrally tilted southern stream one. Looks like they definitely could phase into a much larger, more potent beverage. Especially since they are nearly empty so another glass is in order. I predict enhanced vertical motion uplifting the glass and a subsequent strong influx of booze imbibed as well. 00Z will be telling, but I like these trends! 

I’ll allow it 

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Maybe it's just that the way ninas snow is in little spits and spurts that, on paper, can get "close to median" a la the 2017-18 winter. But in terms of actual events they are less likely to produce heavier snows. So it's kind of a net loss even if the numbers on paper show something better. In Nina’s there's still more junk in the way if ya ask me!

That’s somewhat true. But Nina’s can produce a big storm. 1996, 2000, 2006 and 2011 all had a MECS or bigger storm. I think it’s a combo of 2 things. We spend a larger % of many Nina’s in cold patterns. Ninas are actually the coldest cohort other than modoki ninos. Yes the return on that cold is less.  It’s a lot of tease with little payoff.  And secondly it’s been a long time since 1996. We haven’t had a big Nina recently. 2014 was a big neutral. 2010 and 2015 were big ninos. It’s been 26 years since we had a blockbuster Nina year.  And frankly all years other than those rare blockbusters are pretty bad here. That’s our climo. A few good years a decade and otherwise a lot of crap. Nina’s have all been in the lot of crap category. 

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The lesson in that pic is move somewhere that snow is not even a factor…people in Hawaii never think about snow

Now see that wouldn't work for me...winter is supposed to be wintry. 70s in January would be awful. Now the folks that live there either love warm weather, or have lived there their entire lives, so they don't mind. But I'm not sure how you could be a snow lover yet move somewhere where snow and cold isn't even possible...no way, lol

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

The lesson in that pic is move somewhere that snow is not even a factor…people in Hawaii never think about snow

So true! However, those people have no idea what they’re missing when we pull off a great 2” fluffy cold white smoke La Niña win. Lol. 

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