HVSnowLover Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12Z GFS is a frightening look for NYC Metro, over an inch of liquid of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 hours ago, uncle W said: January 7-8th 1994 ice storm in Brooklyn... This was real and spectacular! To use Seinfeld lingo from that era! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 12Z GFS is a frightening look for NYC Metro, over an inch of liquid of ice. Truth is, if you live south or east of 287, ice storms verify. There is no topography to hold the surface cold and, in NYC , too much cement if its marginally cold. 1994 comes to mind. The prolonged sleet storm Valentines 2007 also comes to mind. It is rare. NYC metro is likely looking at a cold rain with some icing N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 CMC still hanging onto a much warmer solution than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, the_other_guy said: Truth is, if you live south or east of 287, ice storms verify. There is no topography to hold the surface cold and, in NYC , too much cement if its marginally cold. 1994 comes to mind. The prolonged sleet storm Valentines 2007 also comes to mind. It is rare. NYC metro is likely looking at a cold rain with some icing N and W. This is an unusual scenario where its not about holding surface cold in as much as how far south and fast the cold air can come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: CMC still hanging onto a much warmer solution than the gfs GFS ticking warmer though anyone above the Trenton line would still face a significant icing situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 For once I'm hoping for 33 and rain. The last thing the NYC Metro area needs is a catastrophic ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS ticking warmer though anyone above the Trenton line would still face a significant icing situation. The gfs is still pretty far south with the low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS ticking warmer though anyone above the Trenton line would still face a significant icing situation. The only thing that was noticeably different was it backed off on icing over southern Jersey. It was still very aggressive north of there. I still don't believe the 1 inch of ZR in NYC metro although somebody is going to get a pretty bad ice storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: The only thing that was noticeably different was it backed off on icing over southern Jersey. It was still very aggressive north of there. I still don't believe the 1 inch of ZR in NYC metro although somebody is going to get a pretty bad ice storm. Odds don't favor it, but a bona fide ice storm in the NYC metro would be nuts. I'm thinking that, just as it ticked back westward with this past weekend's storm, the GFS'll do something similar again. If I lived 50 miles north or west of the city, I'd be paying attention. Hopefully the next storm's just snowy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 This would be sleet in NYC than Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 12Z GFS is a frightening look for NYC Metro, over an inch of liquid of ice. Would work out to a potential widespread .25”-.5” and pockets to .75”…..when was the last time (if ever) NYC saw a legit ice storm warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Odds don't favor it, but a bona fide ice storm in the NYC metro would be nuts. I'm thinking that, just as it ticked back westward with this past weekend's storm, the GFS'll do something similar again. If I lived 50 miles north or west of the city, I'd be paying attention. Hopefully the next storm's just snowy! When I said somebody is going to get a serious ice storm I didn't mean NYC in particular and the 1 inch is likely way overdone. You are right though, right now N and W most likely and I'm 80 miles north so I'm concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This would be sleet in NYC than Ice A combination of all three is possible and I believe it happened in one of the ice storms of 94, where actually it even snowed briefly before changing to sleet then rain then freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: When I said somebody is going to get a serious ice storm I didn't mean NYC in particular and the 1 inch is likely way overdone. You are right though, right now N and W most likely and I'm 80 miles north so I'm concerned. A glazing is possible in the immediate suburbs at times and even this is hazardous; if it warms up then it's only a brief problem. But it can cause a lot of serious problems in the meantime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: A glazing is possible in the immediate suburbs at times and even this is hazardous; if it warms up then it's only a brief problem. But it can cause a lot of serious problems in the meantime. It just happened a few weeks ago. 60 car pileups in Jersey, etc. That was a glaze at bad timing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: A glazing is possible in the immediate suburbs at times and even this is hazardous; if it warms up then it's only a brief problem. But it can cause a lot of serious problems in the meantime. No doubt, Any ice is a problem. I'm worried that some areas are going to get .50 or more of ZR. We just don't know where yet. I think GFS is too cold and CMC is too warm, using a blend of GFS/Euro/CMC is prudent at this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: A combination of all three is possible and I believe it happened in one of the ice storms of 94, where actually it even snowed briefly before changing to sleet then rain then freezing rain. Yep. I was 10 and I remember it like it was last winter. In Mercer county you could walk on top of the snow/ice without leaving a footprint. My father used a spade to carve ice cubes and made a legit igloo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 38 minutes ago, TriPol said: For once I'm hoping for 33 and rain. The last thing the NYC Metro area needs is a catastrophic ice storm. I think thats unlikely in this scenario. This isn't going to be a case where NYC is 33 and rain. Either the storm track is further north and NYC is in the 40s/50s or its further south and falling into the 20s. This isn't a normal setup for our region, the winds coming out of the north will mitigate the ocean effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z GFS Freezing Rain total. That would be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12 hours ago, Mitchel Volk said: 1973 was an incredible ice storm for NYC, 1994 Staten Island had one Mitch, i think we actually had two in 94, the first was more a snow with ice on top, the second was a legit rare ice event ( the first may have been Dec 93 IIRC but I am in NJ and maybe it didn't affect the city, but that ice storm def did ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: 12z GFS Freezing Rain total. That would be a disaster. Seems like it’s getting a little warmer? I won’t be thrilled but I’ll gladly take the rain over a crippling ice storm that would knock power out for hundreds of thousands. Hopefully it can be a cold rain that won’t knock the snow cover out. I think the greatest odds at the ice storm will be just NW of the city and it’ll end up a little warmer but it can’t be ruled out in the immediate city/metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 27 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: When I said somebody is going to get a serious ice storm I didn't mean NYC in particular and the 1 inch is likely way overdone. You are right though, right now N and W most likely and I'm 80 miles north so I'm concerned. Hoping more sleet than ZR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, David-LI said: 12z GFS Freezing Rain total. That would be a disaster. 1.33 inches of QPF as ice in my hood. Better fire up the genny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'm not buying the GFS until other models do and personally think it'll cave by tonight and definitely by tomorrow. We'll most likely see a cold rain (35-40F) and could finish with some snow showers before the storm ends With Ukie trending warmer, CMC warm this will end up as a non-event. The Arctic high generally needs to be in place ahead of the system for us to get frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I'm not buying the GFS until other models do and personally think it'll cave by tonight and definitely by tomorrow. We'll most likely see a cold rain (35-40F) and could finish with some snow showers before the storm ends Hopefully. Who needs ice and power outages in mid-winter? No one. Since this area is generally predictable with weather types, I expect a cold rain with maybe some period of ice but nothing too bad for our region, but it's too soon to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 UK and GGEM seem considerably warmer than GFS. Starting to think GFS is out to lunch and many of us get rain to maybe brief snow at the end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 An inch of ice would probably bring Sandy level power outages to the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: UK and GGEM seem considerably warmer than GFS. Starting to think GFS is out to lunch and many of us get rain to maybe brief snow at the end. Same here. Hoping that it doesn't damage the pack too much and that it sets the stage for something more fun Sunday into Monday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'd imagine some sort of middle ground between euro and GFS would be realistic. But this bears watching for parts of this forum. With temps crashing and what looks to be a pretty cold Saturday following. Losing power would not be the best situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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