Shades Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z GFS 925mb surface temperatures cross-referenced with MSLP+QPF, Friday morning (15Z) at peak of event in metro-area. At 925mb, the 0C/32F line goes south of NYC at 9z, with ongoing light-moderate precip preceding this time frame. At 850mb, 0C/32F is just north of city, bisecting Bronx/Westchester coinciding with this forecast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS 12Z Clown Snow Map 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: GFS 12Z Clown Snow Map Lock it in? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: Lock it in? Lock it up - and plead insanity 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: Lock it in? Got to use the Kuchera formula, does a great job of separating ice, sleet, and snow, that has about 1-3"/2-4" of snow for most of metro along with much sleet, some ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: GFS 12Z Clown Snow Map The problem with the TT maps is that all freezing precipitation is treated as snow. I-84 and north is probably where one starts seeing appreciable to significant snow on the 12z GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 It’s going to be cold for a few days on the backside of this. Whatever ice falls is going to melt slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: It’s going to be cold for a few days on the backside of this. Whatever ice falls is going to melt slowly. an ice storm can shut things down faster and more dangerous than a snowstorm-time to start stocking up on various ice melt..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 41 minutes ago, MJO812 said: With the position of the high and the strength, expect this to trend south. More than likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: an ice storm can shut things down faster and more dangerous than a snowstorm-time to start stocking up on various ice melt..... A generator would not be a bad idea either. Unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I wouldn't jump to any conclusions yet. The worst case scenarios for the past storm never played out. If models trend stronger on the shortwave then GGEM will be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Im always a little skepitcal when the models are showing something that climo wise almost never happens. I sort of agree with this will end up either mostly snow or mostly rain camp near the coast although I can see with the high placement how the setup the models are showing makes sense but wouldn't really take it that seriously beyond 72 hours. If the warmer scenario happens I could definitely see crippling icing in the climo spots of Sullivan, Ulster, Passaic and Orange counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 49 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Maybe maybe not. A stronger overrunning wave will push it north. But at this lead time the cold air might not be showing up as well as it would be at the surface. This would be a nasty ice storm for a pretty wide area if this setup stays as is. I think we just keep have to follow the track of the low and placement/strength of high, that should ultimately tell the story in terms of precip types. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 44 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: GFS 12Z Clown Snow Map I think the GFS may need an intervention, although I believe it has it's time and place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I think we just keep have to follow the track of the low and placement/strength of high, that should ultimately tell the story in terms of precip types. If ice it is, let's hope more sleet than ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: an ice storm can shut things down faster and more dangerous than a snowstorm-time to start stocking up on various ice melt..... Finally a use for that pesky "not-a-flamethrower" flamethrower, made by Elon Musk. Collecting dust without barbecue weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, dseagull said: I think the GFS may need an intervention, although I believe it has it's time and place. The Ukie seems closer to the GFS than the CMC so it will be interesting to see which camp the Euro joins at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 24 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Dangerously close to being an ice storm for both philly and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 At 12Z on Friday the GFS has NYC at 25 while the CMC has NYC at 50 so thats quite a spread....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, dseagull said: Dangerously close to being an ice storm for both philly and NYC. Last 10 runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The problem with the TT maps is that all freezing precipitation is treated as snow. I-84 and north is probably where one starts seeing appreciable to significant snow on the 12z GFS. Poor Boston 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Poor Boston Thats why its so nice to live in a place like Boston, you can get whacked from a coastal and then whacked from an overrunning event like this all in the same week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Thats why its so nice to live in a place like Boston, you can get whacked from a coastal and then whacked from an overrunning event like this all in the same week. I would rather live here. Overall I like warm weather better and springtime in Boston is a disaster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 when was the last time an overrunning event had this much potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro is more progressive through hour 57 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, Nibor said: 3.5” of sleet? no thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 21 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Got to use the Kuchera formula, does a great job of separating ice, sleet, and snow, that has about 1-3"/2-4" of snow for most of metro along with much sleet, some ice If by "ice" you mean, freezing rain, then this isn't true. Remember that these prognostic fields summate snowfall by multiplying an instantaneous field (temperature, in Kuchera's case) with an accumulated field (snow water equivalent) which is usually a 1/3/6 hour interval. Just be weary of this: Post-processed algorithms are vulnerable to significant errors due to temporal inconsistencies. Also, for "snowfall," all NWP models produce a snow water equivalent field which includes the accumulated contributions of all frozen hydrometeors which is diagnosed explicitly by its applied microphysics scheme (resolves moisture and heat tendencies in the atmosphere). Typically (but not always), this includes snow and pristine ice (sleet). This is why you see "includes sleet" text when associated with some snowfall products (websites uses this swe variable to calculate snowfall). Regardless, swe (as it relates to NWP) doesn't include freezing rain (not a frozen hydrometeor) so it's already removed from the post-processed algorithm. If you're worried about taint, the RAP and HRRR produce a diagnostic snowfall field which calculates snowfall between modeled time steps. It calculates snow density by weighing the density of frozen hydrometeors individually. Hydrometeor density is a function of the temperature of the lowest temperature field (probably between 8 - 20 meters) - https://github.com/wrf-model/WRF/blob/master/phys/module_sf_ruclsm.F I'd rank snowfall products as follows: Long range >5 days: Nothing... NWP accuracy is poor. 10:1 ratios if you really, REALLY want a fix. Medium range: NBM - Snowfall is post-processed utilizing Cobb SLR's (and several other algorithms). Short range: RAP and HRRR diagnostic snowfall field... Maybe even the NBM... SREF utilized the Cobb algorithm, but man', SREF sucks. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said: 3.5” of sleet? no thanks! When was our last 3 inch sleet storm? 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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