HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 hours ago, snywx said: I think alot of it has to do with their climo being very similar to one another. CNJ/NYC/LI all average roughly 25-33" of snow while snowfall averages double that once you get 40 or so miles N & NW. Geographically places in Orange county are closer to Central Park than parts of Western Suffolk. Yes this! Honestly this would be my argument for not having the HV in the same subforum as NYC because the winter climo of anywhere north and west of I287 is drastically different than NYC metro and southeast even though the closest point of I287 is like 25 miles from midtown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Back to the storm I'd be curious to see the 0Z runs and tomorrows 12z runs as it's getting into more serious so to speak. The 18z GFS was a big shift I think toward what we'd expect climo wise but the fact the Euro came so far SE at 12z makes this feel very up in the air right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Back to the storm I'd be curious to see the 0Z runs and tomorrows 12z runs as it's getting into more serious so to speak. The 18z GFS was a big shift I think toward what we'd expect climo wise but the fact the Euro came so far SE at 12z makes this feel very up in the air right now. GFS still had a major event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Back to the storm I'd be curious to see the 0Z runs and tomorrows 12z runs as it's getting into more serious so to speak. The 18z GFS was a big shift I think toward what we'd expect climo wise but the fact the Euro came so far SE at 12z makes this feel very up in the air right now. 18z..... I only look at 0z and 12z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: GFS still had a major event. It did verbatim but was significantly north with the really severe icing of what had it had been showing in previous runs. Yesterday it was showing heavy icing down to SNJ, this run has it basically starting NYC on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18z Euro precip panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It did verbatim but was significantly north with the really severe icing of what had it had been showing in previous runs. Yesterday it was showing heavy icing down to SNJ, this run has it basically starting NYC on north. That’s the same as 12z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: 18z Euro precip panels Trending towards GFS again. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I hate this storm. You just know we're going to finally get heavy precipitation back this way (EPA, WCNJ) and it's going to be heavy ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: 18z Euro precip panels I am so fricking tired of seeing almost every mid range model run in this progressive pattern showing the donut hole over the LV and LSV, no matter where the LP is situated , on the coast, as an App Runner and now an Ohio flyer. These models are so pathetic now and I have been doing this for 30 years. The combo of the NAM and Euro at 36 - 60 hours has usually been pretty reliable. This combo has even been an upheaval. This chaos is resulting in issuance of late warning or advisory events which causes more panic/weenism than anything else and the media hype is unbelievable. We have to create a better and definitely more reliable mid range model for proper guidance. Lets start by taking the avg of the GFS , Euro , GEM total precips and temps and actually calling it the RECON model instead of the worthless model called ICON. LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I am so fricking tired of seeing almost every mid range model run in this progressive pattern showing the donut hole over the LV and LSV, no matter where the LP is situated , on the coast, as an App Runner and now an Ohio flyer. These models are so pathetic now and I have been doing this for 30 years. The combo of the NAM and Euro at 36 - 60 hours has usually been pretty reliable. This combo has even been an upheaval. This chaos is resulting in issuance of late warning or advisory events which causes more panic/weenism than anything else and the media hype is unbelievable. We have to create a better and definitely more reliable mid range model for proper guidance. Lets start by taking the avg of the GFS , Euro , GEM total precips and temps and actually calling it the RECON model instead of the worthless model called ICON. LOL This is basically what i've started doing. The Euro use to be pretty reliable but I don't trust any model individually anymore so I just average what they all show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, Doorman said: Makes sense to be conservative at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The GFS has lost all the fun stuff I showed this AM. (at least the snow). Now it looks like it will take all three models a full 10 days each to achieve 1" or 2" of total snow when added together! Curses foiled again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I would give up the next blizzard for this to just be plain rain. I hate ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 0Z NAM running.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Nam still out of range no ? How reliable at this point ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Nam still out of range no ? How reliable at this point ? Very unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Nam is really amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Nam is really amped Yep NAM still not backing down on the amped/warm solution but still a little beyond its best range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 hours ago, rclab said: Good afternoon all. I consider my Postage stamp to be a Will - Rutgers micro climate. As always ….. this is one of the worst personal attacks i have ever suffered. any of my future communications to this forum or its members will be conducted through lawyers. i hope you like dealing with the experts at Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Nam is clueless. The wave is not going north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is really amped This sounds about right. Better than ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Nam is clueless. The wave is not going north of NYC. Seems to show a 2 wave scenario, at hour 60 the freezing line reaches the edge of the city and then the ice gets cranking. Either way I agree the whole run looks weird and I'd toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: this is one of the worst personal attacks i have ever suffered. any of my future communications to this forum or its members will be conducted through lawyers. i hope you like dealing with the experts at Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe. Your not alone Will. I just received a cease and desist requesT from the USPS. As always ….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Seems to show a 2 wave scenario, at hour 60 the freezing line reaches the edge of the city and then the ice gets cranking. Either way I agree the whole run looks weird and I'd toss. Honestly it won't be in it's best range until 12z tomorrow at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yep NAM still not backing down on the amped/warm solution but still a little beyond its best range. Hopefully we get to a situation where it’s cold rain that doesn’t melt much snow and it all freezes at the end. I think the collapse south to where it’s sleet is unlikely unless you’re up near I-84. I wouldn’t weigh the Nam too heavily pretty much ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully we get to a situation where it’s cold rain that doesn’t melt much snow and it all freezes at the end. I think the collapse south to where it’s sleet is unlikely unless you’re up near I-84. I wouldn’t weigh the Nam too heavily pretty much ever. Huh all I'm hearing is that it will change to freezing rain by 6 am Friday and then temps will keep falling all day and it will change to snow in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Nice to see a cold outcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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