February 2022

[wdrag]

What's the ramifications of this change at 10MB in the arctic over the next month. (the bottom is mid March). Seems to be a consistent EPS message.  Any utility?

[EasternLI]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This MJO wave may be important as to what type of weather patterns we get next winter. El Niño events usually need the MJO to make a strong push into phase 7 in March. That phase in the WPAC usually brings a WWB pattern which warms the Pacific. Both the EPS and GEFS have the MJO going into phases 4-5 for the rest of February and early March. If the MJO stalls out again near phase 6 in early March, then any return to cooler in March will get pushed back. The MJO not making a strong enough push into 7 could also mean the ENSO gets struck in neutral with a La Niña background state possibly  remaining entrenched again for next winter. 
 

 

Agreed totally. That's the most interesting facet to watch for with this particular MJO passage. With the potential WWB possibly initiating another downwelling Kelvin wave as well. Curious to see how this plays out. I'll certainly be watching this one with interest. WPAC SSTs are toasty. 

[MJO812]

It would be hilarious if we get more snow in March than in February.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It would be hilarious if we get more snow in March than in February.

It has happened.  March 2018

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It would be hilarious if we get more snow in March than in February.

That would be typical 1980s and early 90s.

Is phase 6 warm or cold in a La Nina March?

[MJO812]

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

It has happened.  March 2018

I think March 2015 came very close.

[EasternLI]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That would be typical 1980s and early 90s.

Is phase 6 warm or cold in a La Nina March?

Warm. 

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Warm. 

That's awesome. Better than cold and damp.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's awesome. Better than cold and damp.

Phase 5 is cold and 6 isn't that bad 

[bluewave]

This is a great example of how big a difference the AO can make for snowfall distribution across the region. Last winter was +PNA and -AO allowing storms to tuck in closer to the coast. This year is more progressive with the +AO and +PNA since January. The more +AO allows lows to close off and go negative tilt too late. So the storms track further east and ISP does much better than areas further west. This is why it’s easier for jackpots with KU events like last winter to end up closer to NYC and nearby NNJ with - AO.
 

 

[dWave]

Temp off to the races today. Already 51 under sunny skies. About a 10 degree jump in a hour. Today suppose to be a few degrees cooler than yday I think. We'll see how that holds up.

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Phase 5 is cold and 6 isn't that bad 

 

Phase 5 and 6 are both warm in March during a La Niña. Those CPC composites aren’t ENSO specific. The French site has the different MJO phases for ENSO.

 

 

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Phase 5 and 6 are both warm in March during a La Niña. Those CPC composites aren’t ENSO specific. The French site has the different MJO phases for ENSO.

 

 

P6 March yes please 

[Allsnow]

Beautiful morning! Birds really chirping 

[Rjay]

Up to 53 after a low of 29.  

[cleetussnow]

Time to fire up winter 22-23 thread...lol

[Snowshack]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

It has happened.  March 2018

Yeah 3 out of last 12 winters out here on eastern LI.   Certainly not that far fetched.

 

[LoboLeader1]

50 here after an overnite low of 28.

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Yeah 3 out of last 12 winters out here on eastern LI.   Certainly not that far fetched.

 

Amazing how much difference a small distance can make.

Here in SW CT had over 6 of snow in March 5 of last 12.

[MJO812]

56 right now in Brooklyn 

[Allsnow]

57!! Feels great 

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

57!! Feels great 

Looks like we're gonna hit 60 today. Absolutely beautiful. I'm going to go for a run outside this afternoon with a t-shirt on.

[bluewave]

Models in late January really missed the SPV coupling with the stronger +AO. So we keep beating daily high temperature guidance. 
 

New forecast

 

Old forecast

 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures have again surged into the mild 50s as of noon in much  of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Most locations will have a top 10 high temperature for February 11th. In an essay, “The Birds of Spring,” Geoffrey Crayon wrote of the arrival of spring warmth, “the long death-like sleep of winter was at an end.” At the same time, he noted before winter’s demise, that there had been a “sharp return of winter…” 

While the Sunday offers perhaps the last chance of snow for parts of the region—light snow—for some time, historic data argues that some snow in March cannot be ruled out. Patterns change.

For fun, I took the 10 highest temperatures for February 11th for Boston, Bridgeport, Islip, New York City (JFK, LGA, and NYC), Newark, and Philadelphia. There were 12 years during which 3 or more of those locations simultaneously reported top 10 maximum temperatures for the data. 

Select Outcomes for March:

New York City: Measurable snow: 75% of cases; 1” or more: 67% of cases; 4” or more: 58% of cases; 6” or more: 50% of cases; 10” or more: 25% of cases; Mean: 6.2”; Normal: 5.0”; Most Recent: 11.6”, 2018

Philadelphia: Measurable snow: 67% of cases; 1” or more: 67% of cases; 4” or more: 58% of cases; 6” or more: 58% of cases; 10” or more: 25% of cases; Mean: 6.0”; Normal: 3.6”; Most Recent: 15.2”, 2018

In sum, it’s premature to write off the possibility of measurable snow in March. Such snow is not assured, but some of the long-range guidance shows the redevelopment of an Alaskan Ridge pattern during the first week in March. Should such a pattern develop, it could open a window of opportunity for some additional snow.

[forkyfork]

if we're not in a cold pattern just go above the model forecast temps every time

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

if we're not in a cold pattern just go above the model forecast temps every time

Yep, especially if it's sunny outside. I always tack on about 3 degrees to the forecast high temp in these situations. Figured it would be 60 instead of 57 here today.

[Brian5671]

57 here

[MJO812]

Too warm

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Too warm

If it's gonna be mild this time of year, I say it's better to be nice and warm (like the 60 degrees today) rather than a mediocre warmup to 50 degrees. Nice to be able to be outside without having to wear much.