2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Floydbuster]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Mike,

 Just to clarify, my point in giving the stats to that poster about 8/28 MHs is to say that you're predicting something that's not likely even per active era stats and thus would deserve kudos if it is right. It wouldn't surprise me if you end up right.

I think we probably get Danielle sometime August 10-15th and my guess is it's similar to Hurricane Earl 2016 or Hurricane Franklin 2017, a Cat 1 minimal cane into the Yucatan/Mexico. Possible risk to northwest Gulf Coast. 

By the end of August, the switch flips and I think we start to see a fast burst of storms. One or two of them will be useless name wasters. 

[jconsor]

Thread on SST evolution and analogs:
 

 

[ldub23]

Good  article  in SAL. Personally  i think this season was dead due to the High being  displaced too far  south. Euro pretty  dead thru Aug. Shows some activity  in Sept  but that  might  just  be the  model thinking  something  should  be  happening. 8/3/1 CSU on aug 04.

 

https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/blame-it-on-the-dust?utm_source=email

[lee59]

To me the hurricane season doesn't really get going until August, so I would not say it is dead when it is only July. Maybe folks think it is dead because in recent years storms are named in May, June and July and many of them are barely storms and never would have been named in the past.

[GaWx]

  I've decided to go with a 2022 ACE of 120, moderately above the longterm average. I had been thinking within the 110-140 range for awhile. But because models are suggesting little chance for the next storm through the first week of August and with ACE now only ~3, I decided to go with 120.

 It being La Nina and during the very active era that started in 1995 tells me to go with active and 120 is active. But with it being 3rd year La Niña (they've averaged lower ACE than other La Niña) and with a good chance that ACE as of August 7th will still be only ~3, I decided to go only moderately above the longterm average. A 120 would still be the 2nd most active 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral on record (exceeded only by 1894), very near the 119 of 3rd year Niña analog 2000, and well above the average 3rd year Niña/cold neutral, but it would be below the average/median non-El Niño since 1995, which is 153/146.

 My biggest concern area anywhere in the Atlantic basin remains the Gulf coast of Florida as per 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs since all 8 years had significant impact there.

[cptcatz]

What would (or did) ldub say at this point during the 1999 season?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Professional met who does this for a living, 1936, Hurricane 13, possibly not common knowledge, but everybody knows 1938. My Mom was 4 then and remembers it.  1950 had 'King'.

[Diggiebot]

11 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Good  article  in SAL. Personally  i think this season was dead due to the High being  displaced too far  south. Euro pretty  dead thru Aug. Shows some activity  in Sept  but that  might  just  be the  model thinking  something  should  be  happening. 8/3/1 CSU on aug 04.

 

https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/blame-it-on-the-dust?utm_source=email

You are a broken record with a weenie tag. Long range models are pretty inaccurate yet you act like they are a verbatim forecast. How many times have we seen tropical activity change on a dime from forecast to reality? The GFShas fantasy storms that never materialize and vice versa storms form out of the blue. Give it a rest until September and just see what happens. End rant 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Shows some activity  in Sept  but that  might  just  be the  model thinking  something  should  be  happening.

 

I think this is anthropomorphizing a computer model.  I don't think a computer model thinks about early September being the peak, and who knows how many equations simplified to transforms with thousands of terms just decides to spin up a cyclone because it is peak season. 

 

GFS ensembles at 10 days with a grain of salt, but ~10% with closed lows in the Caribbean.

[ldub23]

16 hours ago, cptcatz said:

What would (or did) ldub say at this point during the 1999 season?

I was  most likely  saying thank god  Clinton is almost  gone. As far as the season itself i seem to remember  i was a  bit  optimistic. I  cant remember the  overall pattern that season but i know right  now and  at  least  thru aug 14 the Atlantic Sahara and the real Sahara will be equally  dry. Here  is a satellite  animation of  1999 and  it sure appears there was  much more  moisture  in the tropics.

 

 

*Floyd flooded  my house and car

 

Here  is the Atlantic Sahara today. It  may well be  drier than the real sahara.

 

[Seminole]

A ton of SAL out there right now. 

[NorthHillsWx]

11 minutes ago, Seminole said:

A ton of SAL out there right now. 

It’s truly tough to envision the Atlantic as a whole being drier than it is this morning.

[ldub23]

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s truly tough to envision the Atlantic as a whole being drier than it is this morning.

Like  i was saying, the real Sahara has  more  moisture. Could CSU  go 0/0/0 for the rest  of the  "season"? Obviously something  will develop, most  likely  a  nothing  in the far east ATL that  quickly either croaks  of thirst  or  bebops north. Time to start thinking about  1983. There wont  be an Alicia  though, but  maybe a weak storm will form in the western GOM. In a season that was as weak as the  2022 season look to the extreme east  or west  for something to form.

 

 

 

 

Hard to imagine the  real Sahara having  less  of a  probablity  of a depression to form. We  need a  contest, "Will there be an invest  in Aug"?

 

+

[cptcatz]

Here we go! Major into Mexico and another little something into Florida...

[GaWx]

Comparing 2022 to 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs:

 

1. Date of 3rd NS

2022: 7/2 (earlier than all 8 analogs)
2000: 8/17
1985: 8/9
1975: 8/24
1956: 7/25..this was only analog season with 3 NS as of now just like 2022
1917: 8/30
1910: 9/5
1894: 8/30
1874: 8/28

 

2. 1st MDR storm

2022: 7/1 (earlier than all 8 analogs)
2000: 8/3
1985: 8/12
1975: 9/13
1956: 8/9
1917: 7/6
1910: 8/23
1894: 8/30
1874: 8/28

 

3. 1st MH

2022: very likely after 8/7
2000: 8/11
1985: 8/30
1975: 8/30
1956: 8/9 (earliest)
1917: 8/30
1910: 10/11
1894: 9/1 (this year had highest ACE of analogs with 135)
1874: no MH

[ldub23]

11 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Here we go! Major into Mexico and another little something into Florida...

0Z was a bit less active. East pac still cranking plus the JB-o-meter didnt go off.

 

In  a dead season like  2022 this  is  much more  likely. A weak storm forming from a  mid-latitude  trof. With the east  pac  in overdrive we  have  el nino shear in the west  carib and  gom so until the east  pac  acts  like a la  nina a 938mb cane  isnt  likely  in the  GOM

 

 

This  map also shows the  overall pattern hasnt  changed  one  iota. No wheel, no euro super  ridge just a  continuation of the mega east  coast trof with dry  air  flooding the tropics.

[yoda]

Pretty decent writeup of what is going on so far and the future of August

 

[WxWatcher007]

Reposting what I originally wrote for the Mid-Atlantic thread. I didn't go into wave breaking like the tread above, but it's obviously pretty important. Also very interesting that SST anomaly plots are so different depending on what site you use.

There's a long road between Aug 1 and the end of October, and in the Atlantic especially we can go from quiet to a massive uptick quickly. I don't think anything like 2013 is walking through the door absent seeing continued crap conditions around the end of August, when we're into the ascent to the climatological peak and can see deep into September on ensembles. 

End of July Tropical Update

It's time to turn the page to August, and that means a deep dive into where we are and where we may be going as we approach the start of the climatological peak of the the 2022 Atlantic season. 

It has been nearly a month since the last named storm in the Atlantic (Colin) and it is immediately apparent why.

While the EPAC is HOT, the Atlantic is about as dead as you can get.  

It has been a banner month in the EPAC, where virtually everything that tried to develop in the basin has developed. The EPAC has seen 5 named storms in the month of July, and 4 have become hurricanes with 2 of those majors. That puts the basin about a month ahead of both hurricane and major climo overall. 

The background environment has allowed for rising motion that strongly favored convection in the Pacific. Think MJO. It has been steadfast in supporting EPAC activity. The rule of thumb is when one basin is hot, the other is quiet in our part of the world, and that has certainly been the case in the Atlantic where sinking motion, lack of stalled fronts off the SE and Gulf, and monsoon trough along the African coast allowing for SAL in the MDR have suppressed not just activity, but convection itself--the seeds of a TC. 

It's hard to state just how bad this pattern is for the Atlantic currently. 

Even though this tends to be the downward peak of dry air in the Atlantic, it is extraordinarily dry. You can see it in the satellite image above, but you really see it with the SAL Analysis. 

It's nearly impossible to get anything anywhere outside of the Gulf with this environment. The MDR, Caribbean, and even western Atlantic/SE coast are dry. To be clear, it's more complicated than just dry air. Combined with other factors like stability in the region, it's a toxic combo for any wave trying to form. To make matters worse, there is a nasty ribbon of shear that would rip anything apart in the Caribbean (normal this time of year) and anything that tried to develop and move westward in the eastern MDR. 

It's easy to look at these plots and feel the urge to cancel the rest of the season. How could the Atlantic recover with that kind of dry air and stability in the MDR? How could we see long track hurricanes with shear this high?

I strongly urge caution in cutting back forecasts for an above average season. 

1. Generally Speaking, a Quiet Atlantic This Time of Year is Climo 

There's no way to sugarcoat it: the current Atlantic pattern is truly awful for TC genesis. That said, this time of year the pattern usually leaves a lot to be desired. In recent years, very active years by the way, we saw fairly dramatic pauses in Atlantic activity during this time. Although the season starts on June 1, by the time we get to August 1, we still have approximately 90% of tropical activity that is yet to occur. 

July tropical activity is almost exclusively confined to the homebrew  regions of the SE coast, Gulf, and Western Caribbean for a reason--the broader basin is not ready for major activity via African waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean portions of the MDR. That means it's folly to make a prediction on what August and September will look like with regard to ACE and absolute TC numbers based on July activity. 

Image courtesy of Michael Lowry. 

2. Signs are That the Basin Will Gradually Become More Favorable
Now, this one is easy. We're headed toward the peak of the season, which broadly runs from August 20-October 20. Usually the switch flips and we go from quiet to very active. 

The PAC will not continue on this heater, and while we had a false start signal from the models about two weeks ago that highlighted the end of July/early August as the period the switch would flip, it's important to look at the puzzle pieces they try to throw out. 

First, it's looking like rising motion will become more favorable by mid-month in the Atlantic and favor more vigorous waves off Africa, right in time for the start of CV season in the Eastern Atlantic (image courtesy of Andy Hazelton). This is critical, because we will need moisture to get injected into the basin.   

second, it looks like shear will begin to decline. This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. 

Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin. 

3. Despite Mixed Environmental Factors, ENSO and SST/OHC Still Rule the Day

Finally, ENSO still matters. We are going to see a La Nina/-ENSO state during the peak of the season. This is clear and unambiguous. Normally, -ENSO produces a broadly favorable environment. I will note that @GaWxhas done some excellent work that challenges the premise that a third-year Nina must necessarily be active, but I do think that an active WAM, reduced shear typical of a Nina, and importantly, near normal MDR/cool subtropics and warm western Atlantic will allow for an above average (but not hyperactive) season. 

Overall
I started the season with a 21 named storm/10 hurricane/5 major hurricane forecast, and I don't see much reason to change that right now. I do think we get some activity before the climb toward peak begins on August 20. Overall, I think stability in the MDR will take the longest to overcome, but the other factors I listed above should be able to overcome that. As I've said the last few years as well, I think a relative lack of activity in the Eastern Atlantic can be countered by increased activity in the western Atlantic, where SSTs and OHC are higher than usual.

I should note that my usual TCHP charts are inaccessible, but based on what I saw earlier in the month, the depth of ocean warmth is on par with our other recent active seasons, especially in the western Atlantic. 

[SnoSki14]

I usually wait till August 20th before declaring anything.

If the environment still looks as hostile by that time then we have to look at 2013 more closely.  

However there always seem to be a switch in the last third of August that flips everything. We've seen this even in the most hostile precursor patterns.

[WxWatcher007]

I could be wrong of course, but I just don’t see a 12/5/2 95 ACE season yet. If it were a Nino background, all in. If the MDR were -1.5-2C, all in. But we don’t have that. We have an absurdly stable late July/early Aug environment that can change, albeit slowly in the first 2/3 of August. 

Idk if I’d go well over average ACE to where CSU is, but probably solidly above given my MH forecast.

[ldub23]

"This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. 

Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin."

 

You would  hope they are going to change because they cant get any worse. Its  very  basic. There  is a  massive east coast trof displacing  high pressure too far south turning the Atlantic  into more  of the sahara than the sahara is. Until that  changes i agree we  can ignore  2013, but  look carefully at  1983, 1972.

 

And lets take  out  November  because that  can be dead even in active seasons. What  is the  longest time  between invests? Should  we  have a  contest  on when the  next  invest will be designated?

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

"This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. 

Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin."

 

You would  hope they are going to change because they cant get any worse. Its  very  basic. There  is a  massive east coast rof displacing  high pressure too far south turning the Atlantic  into more  of the sahara than the sahara is. Until that  changes i agree we  can ignore  2013, but  look carefully at  1983, 1972.

 

And lets take  out  November  because that  can be dead even in active seasons. What  is the  longest time  between invests? Should  we  have a  contest  on when the  next  invest will be designated?

 I wouldn't at all consider 1972 since it was a strong El Niño.

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I wouldn't at all consider 1972 since it was a strong El Niño.

But this season is acting like an el nino. In fact, we cant even get a  cloud to make  it  across the Atlantic.

 

 

This  picture  pretty  much sums things  up. There  is  no wheel, there  is  no euro super ridge, there  is  no moisture  in the Sahara tropics, and waves are developing regularly  in the east  pac even though they are anemic dried  up nothings  until they get there. Right  now there  is yet ANOTHER low blasting  off the  mid-atlantic  coast. This  is why i am super  uber  confident of an early  ending season. While  its  possible a switch will flip and  the Wheel will appear i think its  more  likely as sept  15 nears the  trofs will simply  be stronger and  more  potent.

 

 

My 5 post  limit  means  i need to reply  here. I also dont think it remain this quiet. 8/4/2 for the rest  of the season but  i might  bust too high.

 

 

East  Pac says this  is  el nino baby!!!

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

But this season is acting like an el nino. In fact, we cant even get a  cloud to make  it  across the Atlantic.

 That's not true. Bonnie was a very strong MDR wave and, as a matter of fact, was one of the strongest June MDR waves ever.  In addition, the MDR overall was very active in late June. It was so active that folks were in awe of how active it was so early in the season and wondering about implications for how active that might mean for the heart of the season. But then there was the drastic change to much quieter/drier. Just like we've had a drastic change to drier since Bonnie, things will change again as we get closer to the meat of the season, even based on 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs. There's no way it will stay this quiet.

[GaWx]

 I should add that based on my memory, the quietness often (though not always of course) suddenly ends before models have a good handle. I remember a number of times when after a long quiet period a storm pops up with at most 2-3 days of a signal even on the ensembles and then sometimes followed soon by a series of storms.

 Even this year, I recall Colin having hardly any model support. But I'm talking even much stronger and larger storms than Colin being practically totally missed. I'm not predicting this will happen, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if that's what occurs when we switch from quiet to active based on history.

 

[Floydbuster]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I should add that based on my memory, the quietness often (though not always of course) suddenly ends before models have a good handle. I remember a number of times when after a long quiet period a storm pops up with at most 2-3 days of a signal even on the ensembles and then sometimes followed soon by a series of storms.

 Even this year, I recall Colin having hardly any model support. But I'm talking even much stronger and larger storms than Colin being practically totally missed. I'm not predicting this will happen, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if that's what occurs when we switch from quiet to active based on history.

 

Yeah, I remember models showing a green blotch of about 1003 mb over the Bahamas for what eventually became a 185 mph hurricane named Dorian.

[Torch Tiger]

Quiet also means primed SST's. 

[Modfan2]

6 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Quiet also means primed SST's. 

Temps here off Palm Beach are 82-83 and 86 in the Gulf Stream which is cool for this time of year.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Quiet also means primed SST's. 

Yes you are getting more insulation into the water. But wind speeds also play a role through upwelling. 
While a blockbuster year is seeming more unlikely, once the SAL starts to fade, there will be plenty of warm water to take advantage of. 

 

[ldub23]

Im surprised this  has  gone  unmentioned. Its a repeat  of  2 days ago but with a cat1 cane  hitting  texas instead  of a  cat 4. How  it  develops  is  a  bit  suspicious. Since  its starts  in 9 days  we can see  if the euro shows anything today

 

 

 

The  pattern shown on the euro at  240 with a front up and down the east  coast and huge  low  pressure  over the  northeast makes  me think this  likely  isnt  going to happen. Maybe it  will change today.