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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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29 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Ill say it again - we cannot write this off, nor should any one be. 

We are very close to a huge hit - still. I said before this will likely come down to nowcast, and it will.  

Could not agree more with this.  I'm not changing the amounts I put out 24 hours ago based on what I've seen from 12Z guidance.  It is coming down to nowcast time.  Fire up you SPC meso link.  I'll look at 18Z and 00Z guidance just because.  This all coming down to final phase evolution.  I don't agree with dual low solution.  Going to be one consolidated center I just don't know when and where that is going to happen and track.  12"+ amounts still very much on the table eastern sections of CENTRAL and SNJ - up through central / eastern LI and up to southeast New England.  Within that swath local amounts of 18"+ still also very much on the table for parts of easternLI and SE NE.

Time to watch satellite, soon the radar trends, pressure and HT falls.  Could this bust some, sure but there is still upside potential depending on sfc / upper air evolution.  Wipe the Kuchera map totals out of your memory, they were never happening.  Did anyone REALLY think 40"+ amounts were going to verify coastal NJ, LI and SE NE?

 

WX/PT just did nice post on amounts and my thinking is pretty much in line with that.  Maybe a shade lower.  Matches up with what I thought yesterday morning and again stated here.

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Honestly when you compare the 0z Euro to 12z, the precip amount in NYC is about the same. About 0.75 liquid for Central Park in both. For me it went from 1.2 or so to 1.0". The real ouch area seems to be in SNE where around Boston the precip was cut nearly in half. This dumbbell low outcome would hurt them most of all because the Fujiwara the lows have kinda shunts it east along with the poor upper air evolution it causes. 

Was a significant cutback out east.   I dont think I've ever said this but hopefully it was chasing convection.

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Honestly, I think Don hit the nail on the head when he showed the ++AO stats and large snowfalls. 

I feel like more confluence would have allowed an earlier cleaner capture.

Not over but I guess the stats don't lie.

Unfortunately, I am pretty buried in work right now, but initially it looked incorrect. I will go through it when I have a bit more time, though half the reason I asked for confirmation. I know glancing quickly and having a desire can easily skew perception. 

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13 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

This run from the RAP just now is what we need regarding the double low. It emphasizes the west low and as a result it's broader and slightly west with heavy precip (run only goes to hour 21, so a number of hours of snow left after this run), it really doesn't need a shift east or west it needs to either consolidate the lows or at least emphasize the western one  and we should be in for a good surprise tomorrow.

image.thumb.png.96eed10b464b26c67ddcf59d222bbf3e.png

 

image.thumb.png.a217159b84476cc7b0b373b22a77b659.png

Yes I think as someone else pointed out we need that low at or west of Nantuckets longitude near our latitude to have a shot for NYC to get into the really heavy stuff.

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Honestly when you compare the 0z Euro to 12z, the precip amount in NYC is about the same. About 0.75 liquid for Central Park in both. For me it went from 1.2 or so to 1.0". The real ouch area seems to be in SNE where around Boston the precip was cut nearly in half. This dumbbell low outcome would hurt them most of all because the Fujiwara the lows have kinda shunts it east along with the poor upper air evolution it causes. 

It really was a minor diff in output. But the look was def worse on the surface. Hopefully the double barrel low eventually becomes western dominant again - If not, the Euro would be a nice cold snow storm for the city and a pretty big storm further east. 

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Been busy today ftl. 12z euro just illustrates how complicated the setup is. It could play out like that. There were some eps members at 00z that did something similar. It could also not play out like that. This is really a nowcast event if there ever was one. Something to monitor is that convection in the south when it gets going. Models in general struggle with that. Maybe trends on the short term CAMs can help. No idea. 

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13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The most any model brings up to Rockland is 5 or 6 inches total at the very most, most are 4-5 inches. This includes all the new guidance (GFS, NAM 3K/12K, RGEM, HRDPS, CMC, Ukie, Euro, ICON). Honestly nothing has changed at all up this way since yesterday afternoon. This is an eastern Long Island and eastern New England snow blitz this time

Right but my point was more NYC has a little breathing space. With temps as cold as they are .50 qpf should be easily 6+ so it's comforting that line has pretty much stayed where it is and hasn't trended more SE toward the city.  

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yeah Riverhead went from about 2.1" at 0z to 1.5" now. Not sure what to think about it. Hopefully it's convective feedback of some kind. Who knows. 

I mean at the end of the day factoring ratios thats 2 feet vs 18 inches. Suffolk county is getting hammered from this no matter what. 

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2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

from a “bomb” to run of the mill snowstorm?:unsure: really cut back on the winds and even amounts.  boston folks finding a bridge at the moment if the euro is right.

I guess its perspective. This was kind of always a run of the mill snowstorm for NYC but we all got excited by the 2 NAM runs (shocking it would be the NAM to excite us lol). If I was in Boston yea I'd be a little worried but honestly someone between Eastern LI and Boston is still getting over 2 feet. I don't think we can take every single model run verbatim.  

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24 minutes ago, larrye said:

Just because its solution isn't what you want?

Face it, even the Euro has had an eastern solution the entire week with the highest totals on LI and in NE the further east you go. This may be a realistic trend, or it may be an anomaly or a wobble. We'll find out later. But even in prior runs, this wasn't really looking like much of a NYC and points N&W storm.

Nyc is still going to see over 6 inches 

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

This is a very important point here for folks NW of NYC, just saw this tweet and he makes a very good point. The models may be overdoing snowfall NW of the city, they very often miss subsidence: 

 

Agree totally which is again why I think for NYC you want to see that .50 qpf stay solidly to the NW. You want to be solidly in the snow as opposed to the NW fringe. 

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23 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Honestly, the Euro totals are pretty much in line with a lot of forecasts. I think too many people got sucked in by the 6z nam and started to expect historical totals just about everywhere when in reality, very few models were spitting out more than a foot west of Nassau. It's still a very delicate setup so at this point, it's about the mesos and nowcasting to see where the banding sets up. 

Ding ding ding. We are right on schedule

i still do not believe the multi center idea

i think we see a classic nor’easter with a beautiful satellite presentation with an eye

and who ever gets the western deform band is still going to get historic numbers 

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Just now, Snowlover11 said:

we still got the 15z RAP:weenie:

F7227126-854B-4A1F-86D7-31743B876D74.jpeg

Don't think people will discount similar placements (not totals) of jackpots.  Islip through central Monmouth may be annihilated,  just like 2018.  Let's see what sort of convection pushes in as the precip field explodes.    I'd put money on 30-40 miles north of myself on the Jersey Coast getting absolutely crushed.     Not sure why anyone East of the city is jumping.  

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