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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nam was an outlier. No other models had that much snow.

Still on track for the coast for 6+ with more to the east.

Come on dude, don’t play that game. It was a big disappointment, significantly reversed trends to more run of the mill. You get 6” of snow you’ll be bitterly disappointed. You’ve locked in on 18+ In your mind. 

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1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, not sure about the double barrel thing. We may not know how that plays out until it's happening. Could be real. Eps had some of those. But also a lot that didn't. That's challenging. 

Just a bit of a sloppier phase. 

The cleaner the phase, the more tucked this will be. A 3 hr (or less) difference is the difference of about 50-75 miles. We are not going to know that until game time. 

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The double barrel look is likely showing up because the models are trying to resolve the capture.

The lows wants to go NE but the capture would tuck it NW so you get solutions that show both. 

But this is why you should temper your expectations.

Don't expect 20" of snow, aim low and if you do get more than you expect it'll be a nice surprise.

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It went with the double low look - that's the difference. If the double low look gets resolved and becomes one expect a lot of surprised people come Saturday night. If this is the actual look then we end up with a nice storm, but nothing crazy like the previous 2 NAM runs. 

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13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not a surprise that the Nam ticked east. The 6z depiction to me was insane. But for LI, probably NYC too it changes nothing. 

Predictable. The Nam always has one insane run then corrects towards the other guidance. I expect the same from the GFS in the other direction as we near consensus. It almost always happens leading up to these big storms.

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3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Just a bit of a sloppier phase. 

The cleaner the phase, the more tucked this will be. A 3 hr (or less) difference is the difference of about 50-75 miles. We are not going to know that until game time. 

Yeah, agree with that. Noticed the same on some of these runs. It was a hair away from doing that anyway. 

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7 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Come on dude, don’t play that game. It was a big disappointment, significantly reversed trends to more run of the mill. You get 6” of snow you’ll be bitterly disappointed. You’ve locked in on 18+ In your mind. 

What ? I have said many times I am fine with 6+ here. What other models show the huge numbers the Nam showed ?

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