Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

We chucked on TV. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Bumping my dual low question from above.

Does it make sense for there to be a dual low when the pressure wants to drop that fast into the 960s?

Wouldn't seem possible since they would be robbing energy from each other.

[Henry's Weather]

46 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Anyone have an idea how my area (West Somerville) fared in 2013 and 2015? 

I lived literally on Powder House blvd for those years. 2013 was bigger, we had about 28 inches or so as far as I recall. 2015 was longer but slightly less intense. maybe 22-23 inches final? The snow was also heavier in 2013. It was fun to shovel because the bottom 8 inches was total cement, the next 8 inches were normal, but not quite compactable snow, and the top foot or so was pure sand that whipped around like mad. 2015 was all sand, but that one was fun because heavy snows and winds coincided with sunlight. 2013 was a decidedly more mythological event, in part because it was my first 2 footer, but also because the hype surrounding it was unreal. A travel ban, and the snow slowly increased in intensity and fell sith more fervor as winds increaaed throughout the day. Beautiful storm 2013 was.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wouldn't seem possible since they would be robbing energy from each other.

Of course it's possible

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Thundersnow? That'd be cool

I bet Boston area is definitely game on for some thunder snow.

[PhineasC]

Canadian is very similar to 12z. Definitely not zonked like NAM. Reminds me of the GFS more than anything.

A pedestrian event.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Bumping my dual low question from above.

Does it make sense for there to be a dual low when the pressure wants to drop that fast into the 960s?

Well I think the low should move closer to the H5 trough where the vorticity is. 
But to answer your question, I’ve never seen that before, so my guess is there is a reason why it doesn’t happen.  

[Southshorewx]

32 minutes ago, dryslot said:

He would be banging the RUC model.

He loved the RUC. He used to get so much sh!t for that.   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wouldn't seem possible since they would be robbing energy from each other.

That’s what I’m thinking but maybe it is atmospherically possible somehow, don’t know.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Of course it's possible

Sure but to get pressure that low with dual L's seems improbable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Harv didn't flinch with the 0z NAM

24+ all of eastern Mass

Well, no need to try to get that detailed yet...even the subby zone with flirt with 20".....not like its forecast killer.

[JC-CT]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I bet Boston area is definitely game on for some thunder snow.

It's mentioned in the latest update on Ryan's station's site 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, no need to try to get that detailed...even the subby zone with flirt with 20".....not like its forecast killer.

Just a weenie deflater?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Sure but to get pressure that low with dual L's seems improbable.

We see it on multiple models?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Canadian is very similar to 12z. Definitely not zonked like NAM. Reminds me of the GFS more than anything.

A pedestrian event.

Hopefully my melt keeps the EURO from deforming Berks

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Just a weenie deflater?

Yes....I am clearly unwell, but to normal people, its NBD.

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully my melt keeps the EURO from deforming Berks

Tyfys

[40/70 Benchmark]

If this were occluding, it would be a death sentence and much bigger deal.

[CoastalWx]

Ukie slays. It was east at 12z and moved west.  Not far from Canadian. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

14 minutes ago, George001 said:

I wonder if even the kuchera maps are underestimating the snow ratios with this storm like they did with the early Jan nor’easter. If areas in the heaviest banding end up with like 20:1 ratios, we might see someone get over 50 inches.

Kuchera, if I remember @forkyfork's post, doesn't capture stuff like riming, and since it just accumulates snow over intervals, a 3 foot 'cold' Kuchera would compact under its own weight to far less.  Unless you board measure, not yardstick after the fact, as kids did in the 1970s.

[78Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

NBC up here showing the recon flight grid on the weather portion of the broadcast.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully my melt keeps the EURO from deforming Berks

It's a little west for sure, but that move seems to be within wobble territory. This is the first cycle change in a long stretch on this event where the GGEM stayed fairly consistent between runs. Still time for the UKMET to go nuts though.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes....I am clearly unwell, but to normal people, its NBD.

I am quite familiar with your illness.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If this were occluding, it would be a death sentence and much bigger deal.

Yeah, not a lot of model evidence for a dramatic LBSW outcome.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I bet Boston area is definitely game on for some thunder snow.

FSU tropical site also has a link for model slant-instability and CAPE

[CoastalWx]

Pretty good consensus east of Cape. NAM being farthest west. 

[ineedsnow]

RAP came west again

[wxsniss]

Yeah always great to see Harv fired up, classic.

0z NAM verbatim might have a chunk of 17-19" deep in his 24"+ zone, and would also warrant expanding the 18-24 zone farther west... he did neither.

Appropriately not flinching to that single piece of guidance.

[ice1972]

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Thundersnow? That'd be cool

 

[PhineasC]

Only 12k NAM and Euro show this as some bombed-out HECS monster. GGEM/GFS/ICON/3k NAM/RGEM all show something fairly "standard." Still a nice storm but not something that will be endlessly referenced here for years to come.