Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Torch Tiger]

15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Goerge, George , George.... I admire your enthusiasm. However, 40" for Boston? 4-6" per hour band that lasts 6 straight hours? Although it is not impossible, I dont think this is the storm to do this. I'm just trying to bring you down from that cloud in the sky. 

Trust me... That optimism I'll is amazing and you should never lose that, but I'm saying this to you so you won't be disappointed after the Storm is over ( trust me, where I am in central Ct, I would love to get under one of the heavy bands that sets up ), but again, staying real here as I know our chances for that are low. I'll tak e my 12" and be very happy here. You should take your 24" ( and possibly a little more ) and run with that! ;-)

buzzkill

[Roger Smith]

Some mildly encouraging signs from radar and various obs upstream, somebody on LI has 4" down. ACY looks semi-blizzed and heavy snow reported near Asbury Park. 

I'm just riding this out with limited confidence in models at this point, it has the look of a big storm on radar and satellite and there's a fairly impressive low in the Atlantic. Maybe it will just do what some earlier model run said it might do and ignore all the very latest updates. 

As for BOS 40" that seems like a stretch but 25-30 is probably within the bounds, at least 23 with nearby weather weenies swearing it should be 26. 

[apm]

Small flake growth so far...

[Roger Smith]

Big doings on the 06z GFS ... from what appears to be a slightly erroneous initial position (the error looks to be 50-100 east of actual sfc low) the track is now tucked right into the western Gulf of Maine with the 700 mb low crossing se MA to phase. Considering that error as perhaps a weakening factor in the model development (which is close to being intense), this could return things to the earlier very intense storm status. 

I am seeing explosive development potential over the entire region. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Big doings on the 06z GFS ... from what appears to be a slightly erroneous initial position (the error looks to be 50-100 east of actual sfc low) the track is now tucked right into the western Gulf of Maine with the 700 mb low crossing se MA to phase. Considering that error as perhaps a weakening factor in the model development (which is close to being intense), this could return things to the earlier very intense storm status. 

I am seeing explosive development potential over the entire region. 

In Roger we trust 

[moneypitmike]

New map from BOX.  MBY approves.

[Hoth]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

If Ray liked it yeah I probably got the wrong storm, he got like 30 from that mid March blizzard.

Nope you were right. I was think of the March twenty-something storm that busted badly in SNE and nailed Long Island with 2 feet.

[Roger Smith]

I would imagine there would be a constant dull roar of OMG as the board comes to life and sees this rather startling track, the thing goes around the Cape and takes a very hard look at PWM before going up the coast. And as I said the map has an initial position that looks too far east, it's basically 38N 70.5W and the low looks closer to 71.5W on radar and satellite (and from buoy reports). If this evolution started from that corrected position it could imply 3-5 mb extra deepening potential. 

I know it's just another model but you can see this rather steady forcing and the signature of upper lows closing in for the kill. Given what's happening along the Jersey coast, this could mean astronomical snowfalls for parts of LI and NE.

[dendrite]

Lol NAM almost whiffs here. 

[moneypitmike]

Congrats Plymouth County

[moneypitmike]

 

I wonder if that Eastern CT/495 band we're seeing in where things the death band will be set.

 

 

[ackwaves]

5 hours of rain here. Just starting to stick finally. We probably get dry slotted too.

[Lava Rock]

Lol NAM almost whiffs here. 

Is there still no consensus?

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

New map from BOX.  MBY approves.

 

It's going to be a struggle to get those numbers from N ORH Co. and West unless we see a good push on those heavier rates.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah.  Hard to do that here.   2” so far. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Watching 7H evolution on SPC . There was a model divergence after 8-10am (next 6 hours ) on wether this became stretched NE and pushed / weakens/ shortens  best deform banding E Or if 7H stays consolidated and brings a stronger longer and better death band for 495 area 

that may really be the key to totals in some areas 

[weatherwiz]

Should get heavy bank g back to BDL

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Should get heavy bank g back to BDL

 

We’ve been trying to tell em in other thread 

[RI Rob]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve been trying to tell em in other thread 

Basic question. I imagine those are are projected banding areas? The hope is to fall somewhere under them?

[JC-CT]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Should get heavy bank g back to BDL

 

Is that the NAM

[JC-CT]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve been trying to tell em in other thread 

PUT THE MODELS AWAY KEVIN

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Is that the NAM

No the SPC meso analysis 

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

No the SPC meso analysis 

So it's now

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

So it's now

Yes

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yes

Interesting that the heaviest is right underneath the best fronto, not miles and miles NW of it as people were saying. Is that because it's not as strong as the main CCB will be?

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Ryan doesn’t seem too impressed for any heavy banding reaching 91 corridor. Just said on air that area struggles to hit double digits. Hopefully we get a bit of a positive bust. I’m enjoying this however, can’t complain. It’s blowing, it’s snowing, good enough for me.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Ryan doesn’t seem too impressed for any heavy banding reaching 91 corridor. Just said on air that area struggles to hit double digits. Hopefully we get a bit of a positive bust. I’m enjoying this however, can’t complain. It’s blowing, it’s snowing, good enough for me.

It's obvious to anyone who doesnt block out any negative information. This is a 395 east storm.

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Interesting that the heaviest is right underneath the best fronto, not miles and miles NW of it as people were saying. Is that because it's not as strong as the main CCB will be?

my guess is it’s because the 700 low is beginning to tighten up so it’s confining closer to the fronto as opposed to just being northwest…but what you’re saying also could be a contributor as well 

 

[Colonel Badger]

How are the Mesos performing against reality ?

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

11 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It's obvious to anyone who doesnt block out any negative information. This is a 395 east storm.

Not seeing too much hallucination/denial though? everyone is embracing it, for what it is, for the most part.