Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Henry's Weather]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not too worried about the EPS spread...the superior res of the OP should have a firm handle on this at day 2. There was also some decent split at times with respect to MLK, which never made a bit of difference, ultimately.

Yeah, the period of greatest ensemble utility isn't just a superstition. The closer to an event we get, the better and more reliable data we get, so we don't need to do these prognostic functional transformations to our numerical models because we have much less of a sampling error risk and spread to account for.

[ORH_wxman]

Def more confluence up in Quebec on 18z NAM through 18h....

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

As others have mentioned it looks like two clusters in the EPS, which could be increasing spread despite there only being two "right" answers. To me it looks like the EPS got a little worse aloft in the mean, so I would expect probabilities and whatnot to come down slightly.

Or the day shift was only 50% confident you might get 6 inches. 

I saw they moved the needle north of there, They must feel good about my 8.5" now.........

[Cold Miser]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Check the ensembles before you celebrate the 6 hour output.

Let's go with that one, snowiest panel and stick with it. 

[Newman]

Me and some other meteorology classmates/friends are looking to chase this bad boy up there in MA. Never experienced a true New England blizzard and already looking at AirBnB's to book. We found a place north of Boston in Beverly, MA. 1) How does that location look for this storm, snow and wind wise? Euro and NAM look impressive, want to know if anybody thinks there could be a better spot 2.) How does that location typically do wind wise. Close enough to the coast for winds? 3.) How is that area with regard to plowing, etc.?

[Go Kart Mozart]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Unless neither is

Now that would be funny....send it up the Delaware.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

Me and some other meteorology classmates/friends are looking to chase this bad boy up there in MA. Never experienced a true New England blizzard and already looking at AirBnB's to book. We found a place north of Boston in Beverly, MA. 1) How does that location look for this storm, snow and wind wise? Euro and NAM look impressive, want to know if anybody thinks there could be a better spot 2.) How does that location typically do wind wise. Close enough to the coast for winds? 3.) How is that area with regard to plowing, etc.?

Look on the south shore. Southern coastal plain between BOS and cape

[TalcottWx]

Not much snow ratio and dgz talk. How do we look in that department? 

Likely shredded by winds. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

As others have mentioned it looks like two clusters in the EPS, which could be increasing spread despite there only being two "right" answers. To me it looks like the EPS got a little worse aloft in the mean, so I would expect probabilities and whatnot to come down slightly.

Or the day shift was only 50% confident you might get 6 inches. 

Why are we that surprised some of the lower res ensembles are waffling around with respect to the time of closure and dual lows, when every other global has been? I just trust the OP EURO here....I mean, could it tic east some, sure...would not surprise me. We probably end up with a solution less impressive than that 12z EURO OP run, but I would be shocked if this threat evaporates in favor of a fish low at this juncture....but again, a Juno esc later capture would not shock me, so maybe its 1' instead of 2' here.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Newman said:

Me and some other meteorology classmates/friends are looking to chase this bad boy up there in MA. Never experienced a true New England blizzard and already looking at AirBnB's to book. We found a place north of Boston in Beverly, MA. 1) How does that location look for this storm, snow and wind wise? Euro and NAM look impressive, want to know if anybody thinks there could be a better spot 2.) How does that location typically do wind wise. Close enough to the coast for winds? 3.) How is that area with regard to plowing, etc.?

BVY will be pretty good for winds. Even better place would be Cape Ann just to the east because they are exposed to the north by water....Gloucester or Rockport. Those two towns are just E of BVY and they will have much better winds.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Me and some other meteorology classmates/friends are looking to chase this bad boy up there in MA. Never experienced a true New England blizzard and already looking at AirBnB's to book. We found a place north of Boston in Beverly, MA. 1) How does that location look for this storm, snow and wind wise? Euro and NAM look impressive, want to know if anybody thinks there could be a better spot 2.) How does that location typically do wind wise. Close enough to the coast for winds? 3.) How is that area with regard to plowing, etc.?

go south shore

[ORH_wxman]

Or like others said, the south shore would be good too...anywhere between Plymouth and Scituate.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def more confluence up in Quebec on 18z NAM through 18h....

It’s a red flag we haven’t had a nam run yet that showers Stowe with 40. 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why are we that surprised some of the lower res ensembles are waffling around with respect to the time of closure and dual lows, when every other global has been. I just trust the OP EURO here....I mean, could it tic east some, sure...would not surprise me. We probably end up with a solution less impressive than that 12z EURO OP run, but I would be shocked if this threat evaporates in favor of a fish low at this juncture....but again, a Juno esc later capture would not shock me, so maybe its 1' instead of 2' here.

The weird thing is we have seen the spread increase in the EPS fairly dramatically from 00z to 6z to 12z. 

And it's no just the dual low thing... there are some real eastern outliers that are struggling to get precip even to Boston.

Doubt they're right but a few red flags to consider.

[JC-CT]

confluence is just a state of mind

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Or like others said, the south shore would be good too...anywhere between Plymouth and Scituate.

Go to marshfield on the water . That water will be crashing onto the streets 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CT Rain said:

The weird thing is we have seen the spread increase in the EPS fairly dramatically from 00z to 6z to 12z. 

And it's no just the dual low thing... there are some real eastern outliers that are struggling to get precip even to Boston.

Doubt they're right but a few red flags to consider.

Right....some members are pulling the crap that the UK and GEM have doing...wild eastward swings. That will increase spread.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

The weird thing is we have seen the spread increase in the EPS fairly dramatically from 00z to 6z to 12z. 

And it's no just the dual low thing... there are some real eastern outliers that are struggling to get precip even to Boston.

Doubt they're right but a few red flags to consider.

Plenty of red flags right now to be honest. Especially for your forecast area. 

[dryslot]

It also can be a bitch

[tunafish]

Noob question:  What impact does confluence have on the storm?

[ORH_wxman]

I'll be surprised if the NAM isn't east of 12z. Still looking less amped with more Quebec confluence at 24 hours.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, tunafish said:

Noob question:  What impact does confluence have on the storm?

Think of it as a giant broom pushing the storm away from us

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, tunafish said:

Noob question:  What impact does confluence have on the storm?

It prevents downstream ridging....and you want more downstream ridging to pull the storm west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, tunafish said:

Noob question:  What impact does confluence have on the storm?

Surpresses it southward.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Melting potential is now at 3 or so standard deviations from the norm for 42 -48 hours out . 

[skierinvermont]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def more confluence up in Quebec on 18z NAM through 18h....

yep not looking good, maybe the trough can somehow slow down but doubtful. I don't know why they don't either improve the initialization of the NAM or toss it

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Go to marshfield on the water . That water will be crashing onto the streets 

Newburyport will probably be pretty good and I find it to be a more interesting area in general than the south shore.

[ORH_wxman]

The main trough is actually a little deeper than 12z so far, but the lack of downstream ridging compared to 12z is obvious.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, skierinvermont said:

yep not looking good, maybe the trough can somehow slow down but doubtful. I don't know why they don't either improve the initialization of the NAM or toss it

Same crap ensemble members are doing. Gee, why is spread increasing??

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, skierinvermont said:

yep not looking good, maybe the trough can somehow slow down but doubtful. I don't know why they don't either improve the initialization of the NAM or toss it

riiiight, its an undesirable solution because it's a bad model