Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nam looks like a monster bomb lol. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Good morning 

[BombsAway1288]

34 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

ummmm........

 

Can’t wait to see the more realistic Narcan for that run. Nam’d 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Good morning 

Lol. Steadfast and true. We salute you

[MJO812]

Reggie looks good

[The 4 Seasons]

6Z RGEM/NAM is a bomb

3K NAM and HRRR almost a whiff but those are in a clown range

matter of fact all the models at this range are in clown range or just bad in general

 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Can’t wait to see the more realistic Narcan for that run. Nam’d 

Lol. Steadfast and true. We salute you

I was just shocked at all the posters and even some good Mets bailing and going with the whiff scenario. We’ve all been here so many years and know how these work . This is coming full throttle 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Good thing Kevins sleepin' thats all ima say.

It’s ALIVE!!!  

[BombsAway1288]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I was just shocked at all the posters and even some good Mets bailing and going with the whiff scenario. We’ve all been here so many years and know how these work . This is coming full throttle 

Yeah seems to be the usual mid-range shenanigans with coastals where they lose the storm then bring it back  

Think everyone is just extra edgy with how this season has panned out so far with terrible trends for a lot of threats. 

[DJln491]

GFS up next?

[Damage In Tolland]

Tight west clustering 

[NeonPeon]

4 hours ago, Patrick-02540 said:

This will verify for the simple reason that it has the RI screw hole. 

  

When has a ri screw hole ever been centered over the rocky mountains of RI. When we get the mesos, the hole will start to resolve and then you can pick the best solution from whoever shows the correct relative min for me.

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

GFS up next?

Better 

Low is further west but still goes more northeast than the other models

 

[CoastalWx]

Well AWT nam sucks as a model

[TalcottWx]

Nearly every model shows 12-18 for e MA.... 

[TalcottWx]

You have to think if we maintain these amounts through 12z we see blizzard watches in the East. 

[yoda]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

You have to think if we maintain these amounts through 12z we see blizzard watches in the East. 

Blizzard watches do not exist anymore 

[JC-CT]

Dr whoops?

[NeonPeon]

Gfs ticked west... The chief outlier at this point. Hopefully we can get that into some sort of consensus today, so that a 0-2 feet forecast isn't floating around in the ether for half of new England.

[Damage In Tolland]

IMO we should now see steady NW bumps across all the models the next 24 hours before leveling off tomorrow morning. The western ones will Messenger shuffle east a bit.. the GFS may never fully catch on until it’s already snowing . Rays map should be good 

[moneypitmike]

Here's the BOX map this morning.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I posted the current snowfall for the season in 2021-2022 winter snow. 

Watches are up for CT

 

I'm hoping they extend that watch over to hartford county. Hopefully today the trends keep moving west some more.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah good to see the 06z suite bump west. There is still some uncertainty on the capture location and stall length, etc. That will determine whether this is a historic storm or just a really big storm that doesn’t make it into top 10 status. Western crowd too is still pretty sensitive to 25 mile wobbles. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Anyones thoughts on why and if they think the GFS will adjust west through today? It's the only model still further out? 

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Anyones thoughts on why and if they think the GFS will adjust west through today? It's the only model still further out? 

Because it's been a huge outlier (take your pick on NAM runs) that has been ticking toward the others, it's likely wrong.  While the others may (?) tick a little east, I'd expect the GFS to make larger moves west.

[TalcottWx]

56 minutes ago, yoda said:

Blizzard watches do not exist anymore 

Wow, straight to warnings now? 

[TalcottWx]

59 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

You have to think if we maintain these amounts through 12z we see blizzard watches in the East. 

Not sure what I'm being weenie tagged for

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Wow, straight to warnings now? 

Yes 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

As long as other models hold ... gf’s will get a clue around 0z tonite 

[Johnno]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah good to see the 06z suite bump west. There is still some uncertainty on the capture location and stall length, etc. That will determine whether this is a historic storm or just a really big storm that doesn’t make it into top 10 status. Western crowd too is still pretty sensitive to 25 mile wobbles. 

Yea definitely nice trends at 6z… I can’t remember the last time we weren’t on the edge back here for a coastal, every wobble counts

[snowdazed]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Here's the BOX map this morning.

Ah, they've shifted the totals east.  Pity, I would enjoy a nice heavy slam.