Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Diggiebot]

I can’t remember a yo-yo like this before. I’ve seen storms go away and then comeback a day or two later but never this much roller coaster run to run. Hedge east and see what develops? I’m guessing Thursday cycles should give an answer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

He also jackpots on the CMC Kuchera clown map... 29" lol...

I know, I'm just saying....he would take days of non accumulating flurries over a HECS lol

[snjókoma]

Usually in the MA but in Providence for the week. Goofus will be wrong Inshallah

[bishbish777]

Just now, JC-CT said:

One model stands above the rest as steady freddie, and within the spread of solutions.

The ICON has really been doing great, I agree.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was gonna say that...has the band over me then, too. 

Yea. Looks feb13ish just a tick east.

[Roger Smith]

The Arpege has a fairly good reputation in Europe and often tips what the later EURO (ECM) will do, so if it's looking good at this point that's a good sign. I have the feeling that the GFS is out on a limb and the interaction of the significant upper trough with anomalous warm water will seal the deal. Think the odds are 3:1 for a big storm for most of NE. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, JC-CT said:

One model stands above the rest as steady freddie, and within the spread of solutions.

Yeah, this may be The Return of the King deal here.

GFS looks like a pretender to the throne. Still has the same weak SE bias it always had with coastals.

[Go Kart Mozart]

12 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

18z ARPEGE (French)

C'est bon.  135mbs too, I was hoping for the 960s!

[Typhoon Tip]

That’s weird… The whole time I can hear the movie ‘the day after tomorrow’ on the TV in the other room. Just realized. Good omen?

lol

[PhineasC]

Just now, Roger Smith said:

The Arpege has a fairly good reputation in Europe and often tips what the later EURO (ECM) will do, so if it's looking good at this point that's a good sign. I have the feeling that the GFS is out on a limb and the interaction of the significant upper trough with anomalous warm water will seal the deal. Think the odds are 3:1 for a big storm for most of NE. 

The what? Keep that weird model shit outta here, bro.

[JC-CT]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The what? Keep that weird model shit outta here, bro.

it's the french global model

[8611Blizz]

FWIW Bouchard did mention to not get caught up in the model mayhem. Taht said he is also dropping the chances for anyone to get 2'.  He also pushed the start of heavy snow back from earlier today.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snjókoma said:

Usually in the MA but in Providence for the week. Goofus will be wrong Inshallah

Salam alaikum! Picked a great week to head up here!

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, yak said:

Wow!  Look at that low of 135.2… umm… French units off of Hatteras!

That's a shit ton of dam right there.

[bristolri_wx]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The what? Keep that weird model shit outta here, bro.

It's not that weird - the French worked with the ECMWF on a fork of the Euro for their needs.  Based on similar code.

[Roger Smith]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

C'est bon.  135mbs too, I was hoping for the 960s!

It's an 850 mb chart, the units are heights, 135.2 would be 1352 metres. 

(guessing you knew this but just in case ...)

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I did.

Euro will probably tic better.

Did you see Ukie position 

[JC-CT]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Did you see Ukie position 

holy shit that's a massive change

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

One model stands above the rest as steady freddie, and within the spread of solutions.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie out on real maps

 

 

[dryslot]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

FWIW Bouchard did mention to not get caught up in the model mayhem. Taht said he is also dropping the chances for anyone to get 2'.  He also pushed the start of heavy snow back from earlier today.

 

Toss him, he blows 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

It's an 850 mb chart, the units are heights, 135.2 would be 1352 metres. 

(guessing you knew this but just in case ...)

Thank you Sheldon....um, I mean Roger.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Holy moly UK.

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie out on real maps

 

 

I'll take my 30mm in 12 hours, thank you.

[JC-CT]

I knew if I just never stopped posting, this would turn around

[40/70 Benchmark]

A track crossing the cape from the south is gold...really prolongs things

[Typhoon Tip]

I have a hunch that the GEFs are going to be west of previous

nope. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a hunch that the GEFs are going to be west of previous

They were east lol

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a hunch that the GEFs are going to be west of previous

Already out and no