Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Best comment.  One of these models is profoundly wrong.  I would be surprised if its the Euro, but the GFS has been relatively steadfast.  

It's been posted a few times that GFS is having a tough couple of weeks vs the Euro even on mundane 500mb verification in the northern hemisphere domain. GFS has been consistent - we've also seen it cave to the consensus many times on the coastals at the last minute.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

[OrangeCTWX]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

CMC skirts the Cape.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree.

I think the JMA is gonna pull this off.

[ineedsnow]

GEFS east

[SnoSki14]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

ya thats a huge hit on the CMC I think the GFS will cave if the UKIE and Euro look good

Idk if the Ukie will cave right away. Hopefully it trends better though. 

But if Euro holds or improves the GFS will go down in flames and likely make massive adjustments tomorrow.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Wait…where are people getting the canadian?

Golden Gate Weather I think. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

let’s see if the crazy uncle is having a dry January 

Ukie is out at what ..1145?

[Rjay]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Idk if the Ukie will cave right away. Hopefully it trends better though. 

But if Euro holds or improves the GFS will go down in flames and likely make massive adjustments tomorrow.

I don't want anyone to break their necks but the ukie is out on that awful French site and it looks to be a bm track but I have really hard time looking at it.  

[OrangeCTWX]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS east

Jesus you aren’t kidding. Way east.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS east

no shit dude. it just follows the op. they are useless.

[ORH_wxman]

It would be funny if after all the improvement the GFS has shown, it still completely gags on a huge coastal.

[Spaizzo]

7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Wait…where are people getting the canadian?

Canada

[wxsniss]

Harv for the fans...

1 foot pushed past Worcester

1 foot+, "potentially much above" in eastern MA

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Old school

 

Back in the day using those black and white maps, When i couldn't see my home state i knew we were good....lol

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

let’s see if the crazy uncle is having a dry January 

Ukie is out at what ..1145?

like 1140

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS east

Me indifferent

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the JMA is gonna pull this off.

I know we joke on this stuff but if we look at it in a vacuum (hide the names), why not give more weight to the model who’s been the most consistent, or at the very least…one of the most consistent. 

[Zeus]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It would be funny if after all the improvement the GFS has shown, it still completely gags on a huge coastal.

Phrasing.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Idk if the Ukie will cave right away. Hopefully it trends better though. 

But if Euro holds or improves the GFS will go down in flames and likely make massive adjustments tomorrow.

 

The GFS usually holds out til the final 30-36 in cases where its struggling with an East Coast storm...I expect you don't see any major moves til tomorrow

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I know we joke on this stuff but if we look at it in a vacuum (hide the name), why not give more weight to the model who’s been the most consistent, or at the very least…one of the most consistent. 

it's been more consistent in outcome than how it's gotten there

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It would be funny if after all the improvement the GFS has shown, it still completely gags on a huge coastal.

Somebody had the scores i saw somwhere of the GFS and Euro i think from fall until now and they were not good for the GFS

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

like 1140

Courtesy of metsfan

[ineedsnow]

ya ukie looks really nice!

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

979 right on the benchmark.

Crawls up the arm of the cape over six hours pretty much S+ To S++ the whole time over the eastern half of southern New England, while it’s impossible not to get 50 mph wind gusts. 

I mean you can’t bum that description because the model is bunning itself. Interesting 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

From a public safety perspective, it's dangerous when your country's model can't produce a reasonable forecast inside 72 hours.

It's literally an all-or-nothing game right now for NYC and friends.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Courtesy of metsfan

thx, where do i find the united states?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

thx, where do i find the united states?

At the United States.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Courtesy of metsfan

That actually looks good, Just seeing the low and where it is in relation to the bay of fundy says its west a good track

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Crawls up the arm of the cape over six hours pretty much S+ the S++ the whole time over the eastern half of southern New England, while it’s impossible not to get 50 mph wind gusts. 

I mean you can’t bum that description because the model is bunning itself. Interesting 

from there it hugs the coastline the entire way to canada.