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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still a nice look on the EPS. You'll have chances with that.

We'll also need to watch some of these s/w's flying in on the west wide of the trough next 8=9 days or so.

Yeah between now and the first couple days of March, there's a couple pulses of western ridging that might help aid any diving shortwaves....after that, we get more western troughing. Too bad we couldn't keep the 2015-esque look out there that guidance had last week....but we knew that probably wasn't verifying. The monster EPO block isn't going anywhere though so we're going to continue to have winter threats right into mid-March most likely.

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43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah between now and the first couple days of March, there's a couple pulses of western ridging that might help aid any diving shortwaves....after that, we get more western troughing. Too bad we couldn't keep the 2015-esque look out there that guidance had last week....but we knew that probably wasn't verifying. The monster EPO block isn't going anywhere though so we're going to continue to have winter threats right into mid-March most likely.

Overrunning/swfe/Miller B look? 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you think this temperature swing was impressive just wait till you go from 80s to 30s in April over 3-4 hours

We haven't had one of those type of BD events in quite some time.  ... We've had our springs disrupted by other weirdness, causing wild oscillations of temperature that were not related to BD's per se - it may be that these odd springs have interfered with the general circulations types the cause the BD phenomenon.  We've had them..but they've tended to shallower versions.  I have to go back to the aughts of 2000 to get one of those big dawg shock and awe BD blasts. 

The last I recall was April of 2003... I was working at the time down on Comm Ave, across from the BU rec center - which doesn't exist now..I think it's a gym and whatever... Anyway, it was 94 F at noon, partly cloudy with CU and some TCU toes along the horizons.   The BD roared through the city, passing that location at 1:30 PM...  The sky was interesting, with Kelvin-Hemholtz rolling scud fragments racing W, while the towers of cu leaned east over top.  When I left to head up the street for the parking garage, I did so in 45 F ... essentially a 50 F correction between 1:30 and 5:30. It was 39 by 8 pm all the way out to Waltham where I lived.   That BD never made as far west at ALB... That next day, I recall it was 86 out there, while it managed back to 43 still under slate sky back in Boston.  

That was one of the more impressive ones I experienced, but the most was March 31 1998.   It was 91 F ...in fact, it was D 3 of a 89, 90, 91.  It was truly unique. I think those records will probably stand for a long while, as they have since.   But at 3:15 pm on the 31, it was 91.4 F on the monitor at UML's wx lab.  I looked at the obs up in Maine, knowing that the BD was coming... at that time, CAR's ASOS was 36 F with NE wind gusting to 45 mph.   That radar had that serpent.  Sometimes very powerful ones will get a weak ribbon echo ...probably because their plowing pollutants along - I dunno what drives that honesty.  But it sinuous like a side-winder as it moved SW from out of Maine about to enter NH.   It came through the Merrimack Valley around 5:45 ... with a lot wind and dust.   38 at dawn the next morning.

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I'm starting to wonder if the -EPO gush for mid March may be a red herring -

It's already a little less panache/attitude in the ens means out there - I haven't seen the 300 EPS but.. 240 ... Anyway the GEFs seems a little less impressive.  Plus, we have to remember that radiative forcing across the hemisphere is a huge delta and it can start normalizing things particularly as we head deeper into March.

I was telling others that the EPO may not correlate on March 15 the same way as it does on Dec 30.

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