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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs trying to weenie out on a long duration crusher to kick off March. 

That has a very spring like behavior at mid and upper levels the way it wobbles east and eventually closes off like that - almost like April '97.  

12Z model take:

Not convinced Tuesday is that warm, *unless the high pressure trends away from Quebec*   If it does, then both the lower tropospheric boundaries can end up more N like the Euro, but also... if the high pressure lags more than means that the mid levels have more confluence up there,...which would also force the shearing S/W more S.  These differences appear in the Euro vs GFS. The former is how/why the Euro does what it does, while the latter appears to be what the GFS is after.   That said, the 12z GFS high pressure was trended E so... if nothing else, a reminder that a warmer Tuesday is still certainly on the table.  

Friday system is way the f out there in time, ... likely to modulate significantly to the point where this is almost futile to comment.  That said, the PNA in the GEFs is rising very strongly through that period. It almost seems like that one is a vestige of the previous solution and not a part of the PNA rise/correction event that signals... It may be that as the PNA exerts it will transform that into either bigger in future guidance... or wiped out in lieu of another bigger deal - maybe even the one right after. 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That has a very spring like behavior at mid and upper levels the way it wobbles east and eventually closes off like that - almost like April '97.  

12Z model take:

Not convinced Tuesday is that warm, *unless the high pressure trends away from Quebec*   If it does, then both the lower tropospheric boundaries can end up more N like the Euro, but also... if the high pressure lags more than means that the mid levels have more confluence up there,...which would also force the shearing S/W more S.  These differences appear in the Euro vs GFS. The former is how/why the Euro does what it does, while the latter appears to be what the GFS is after.   That said, the 12z GFS high pressure was trended E so... if nothing else, a reminder that a warmer Tuesday is still certainly no the table.  

Friday system is way the f out there in time, ... likely to modulate significantly to the point where this is almost futile to comment.  That said, the PNA in the GEFs is rising very strongly through that period. It almost seems like that one is a vestige of the previous solution and not a part of the PNA rise/correction event that signals... it may be that either bigger in future guidance... or wiped out in lieu of another bigger deal - maybe even the one right after. 

I almost favor that...told you earlier, I have been keying in on early March since last fall. Always thought that was the best window with highest ceiling of the winter in a general sense.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I almost favor that...told you earlier, I have been keying in on early March since last fall. Always thought that was the best window with highest ceiling of the winter in a general sense.

Well...okay..but the PNA - related correction event would be prior to the March first week though.  There may be lag, true - dunno.  But typically those occur on the front slope of a rapid PNA recovery.  

But long range after March 5, mm not sure how long we hold onto a favorable look either.  I guess I feel about March like I did going into Feb - I didn't/don't really have a feel for that.  It may do what you suggest(ed), sure... but these present index outlooks would favor more activity between 22nd and ~ Mar 3 so some overlap.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well...okay..but the PNA - related correction event would be prior to the March first week though.  There may be lag, true - dunno.  But typically those occur on the front slope of a rapid PNA recovery.  

But long range after March 5, mm not sure how long we hold onto a favorable look either.  I guess I feel about March like I did going into Feb - I didn't/don't really have a feel for that.  It may do what you suggest(ed), sure... but these present index outlooks would favor more activity between 22nd and ~ Mar 3 so some overlap.

I understand that. 24-26 is the window for the PNA flex....not a huge deal over 3-4 days, anyway.

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