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Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow


stormtracker
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21 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

So, storm is cancelled 5 days before it was supposed to start?  That’s almost as ridiculous as saying we’re going to get a HECS 6 days before it’s supposed to start isn’t it?

People keep failing this simple math problem - I think as kind of a defense mechanism. Precipitation is 3 days out, not 5 days. At hour 36 we will already know if the trof is sharp enough to work out. The key features are well within short range now.

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Just now, eduggs said:

People keep failing this simple math problem - I think as kind of a defense mechanism. Precipitation is 3 days out, not 5 days. At hour 36 we will already know if the trof is sharp enough to work out. The key features are well within short range now.

I think 36 might be a little early. I was doing all my “looking” at about the 12z Friday time frame

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Well I think the idea is that it will probably snow. But the HECS and BECS typically have the GFS or Euro prompting wide eye emoji posts 5 days out and closer for almost every run. And when it goes away inside of 4 days, it rarely ever comes back. That’s the reality. And let’s face it. 3-6 is nice. But 30” with 3 foot drifts are better.

Personally, I think a 12-18 HECS is coming and everyone will cash in. It’s not any of the storms on the current play board. But it’s coming. I feel it in this pattern.


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6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

People keep failing this simple math problem - I think as kind of a defense mechanism. Precipitation is 3 days out, not 5 days. At hour 36 we will already know if the trof is sharp enough to work out. The key features are well within short range now.

Then we’ll know that the “trof” is not sharp enough on Thursday at 12:00 a.m., 36 hours before the estimated start, and then it will be over.  I will remember that.  Thank you. 

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1 minute ago, grhqofb5 said:

Then we’ll know that the “trof” is not sharp enough on Thursday at 12:00 a.m., 36 hours before the estimated start, and then it will be over.  I will remember that.  Thank you. 

I'm being a little conservative. We'll probably know sooner than that.

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Ok, JV model time.   First up, NAM.   Kinda shocked there's not SREF talk..usually the first sign of desperation and a dark, dark road to come.


Still alot of big hits....waaay more than i imagined
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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Nam better with the NS..can't buy a sw vort push.  dammit.  Can you imagine if that vort had just moved east.

Potentially stupid question here...would we almost not do half-badly if that northern stream shortwave just ended up being a fair bit stronger over time, and screw the southern vort?  Like if it digs a lot more somehow, some way.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Imma be honest.  I have no idea what the **** is going on with the NAM and what I'm looking for anymore.  It's a mess

It’s sharper and deeper, but probably not enough. It is hanging back a tad also

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
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